Who will win the relegation battle?

UPDATE: Match had to be cancelled again at Burnley’s request

No week without catch-up games – that’s the motto in the motherland of football. Due to the countless postponements of matches, the table currently shows an extremely skewed picture. The 20 teams have played between 17 and 22 games so far. On Tuesday evening, an absolute relegation crunch is on the agenda at Turf Moor. Hosts Burnley welcome Watford and could even move out of the relegation zone with a home win.

Head coach Sean Dyche’s home side are currently bottom of the table, but are the team that has only played 17 games and therefore has a handful of games to play. In terms of points lost, the situation is by no means that precarious, but the physical strain will be extreme in the coming weeks. According to the bookmakers, Burnley are the clear favourites against Watford. This is especially due to the disastrous condition of the promoted team.

Things are not going according to plan for Leicester’s championship hero Claudio Ranieri at the Hornets. Watford are currently just one point clear of the relegation zone and three points ahead of Burnley. Due to their worse goal difference (-14) compared to Burnley (-11), a defeat would threaten a drop to the relegation zone. The game kicks off at Turf Moor on Tuesday night at 8:30pm.

Burnley – Statistics & current form

Burnley have been part of the English Premier League for six years now, but their situation has never been as precarious as it is currently. Regardless of their current position, the rest of the facts speak for themselves. Dyche’s team has never had fewer points in the Premier League after 17 games in the last ten years. In addition, they have won only one match so far this season. After all, their direct rivals are also always dropping points, so a second win of the season could secure them a place above the top of the table.

First bottom spot since November 2020

The direct competition in the fight to stay in the league has between 19 and 21 games, accordingly Burnley would not yet be in the relegation zone on losing points. However, there are difficult catch-up games (Tottenham, Aston Villa, Leicester) and an absolute monster programme (Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool) in the next few weeks. Accordingly, the pressure is very high before the home match against the promoted team. A defeat would significantly increase the gap to the safety net.

Not necessarily in favour of the Clarets is the fact that the Dyche eleven did not win any of the last six Premier League games played during the week. Especially on Tuesdays, there were three defeats in the last four games. In addition, they also have to mentally deal with their bottom-of-the-table finish. For the first time since November 2020, Burnley will play a league game from position 20.

Scarce possession

Under Sean Dyche, the Clarets have never been a team that took control of the game and dominated their opponents. Rather, quick turnover actions and good defence have been the cornerstones of their success. This season Burnley currently have the worst possession statistics (39.6 per cent) and passing statistics (323 passes per game). Accordingly, there is also a lack of penetrating power in the offensive, which is clear with 16 goals in the season.

Given the starting situation, a lot of fighting and little footballing class is to be expected here. Goal-scoring chances will probably be the exception on both sides and accordingly, the forecast for the under 2.5 in the relegation battle between Burnley and Watford is obvious.

Predicted line-up of Burnley:
Hennessey – Taylor, Mee, Tarkowski, Lowton – Gudmundsson, Cork, Westwood, McNeil – Cornet, Jay Rodriguez

Last games played by Burnley:

FA Cup
01/08 2022 – Burnley 1 – 2 Huddersfield

Premier League
01/02 2022 – Leeds 3 – 1 Burnley

12/30 2021 – Manchester United 3 – 1 Burnley

12/12 2021 – Burnley 0 – 0 West Ham

12/04 2021 – Newcastle United 1 – 0 Burnley

Watford – Statistics & current form

The now 70-year-old Claudio Ranieri will always hold hero status in England. However, his monument has been cracked recently as things have been far from satisfactory for the promoted Premier League side since taking over the Hornets from Watford. Normally, there was stability in the defence under the Italian coach, but 31 goals conceded in 13 competitive games under him speaks a different language.

Defeat streak stopped

While Burnley had to sit out again at the weekend (game against Leicester postponed), Watford had already played a relegation clash away from home. Against the newly rich Newcastle United, a goal by Joao Pedro ensured a lucky point. This kept Watford ahead of their direct rivals and also stopped their run of seven defeats in a row. However, seven points from twelve league games (and one cup game) is absolutely disappointing. It is quite possible that Ranieri will not live to see the end of the season as Watford coach.

Even with the return of veteran Ben Foster between the posts, Watford again failed to go a game without conceding a goal. The number of goals conceded is appalling, now the Hornets have conceded at least one goal for 29 Premier League games in a row. Only three teams in PL history have an even longer run. Watford could draw level with Blackburn Rovers and Wolverhampton (both 2011/12) on Tuesday night.

Predicted Watford line-up:
Foster – Kamara, Samir, Cathcart, Ngakia – Kucka, Kayembe, Sissoko – Joao Pedro, King, Dennis

Last matches played by Watford:

Premier League
01/15 2022 – Newcastle United 1 – 1 Watford

FA Cup
01/08 2022 – Leicester 4 – 1 Watford

Premier League
01/01 2022 – Watford 0 – 1 Tottenham

12/28 2021 – Watford 1 – 4 West Ham

12/10 2021 – Brentford 2 – 1 Watford

Burnley – Watford Direct comparison / H2H record

Last-placed Burnley can certainly have hopes of success on Tuesday night in the catch-up game. In the last three league games between the two teams, Burnley have managed to keep a clean sheet. Two games were won, once the game ended goalless. But Watford don’t have good memories of Turf Moor in general either, with Sir Elton John’s favourite club winning only one of their last twelve guest appearances (August 2018), compared to just four draws and no fewer than seven defeats.

Burnley – Watford Tip

More relegation fight is hardly possible and accordingly this match on Tuesday night will be trend-setting for both teams. The season is still long, but Burnley in particular could lose sight of the (temporary) connection to the saving bank with a home defeat. A tendency towards a favourite is not apparent and value is not to be found in either home or away win betting on Burnley vs. Watford.

Football-wise, the game will probably have little to offer and the credo “no losing” will be paramount. Little risk, little playfulness, little creativity and instead a lot of fight will accompany the game at Turf Moor. Despite the weak Watford defence, the prediction that not both teams will score seems to be the best choice in the relegation clash between Burnley and Watford. The low risk on both sides definitely favours this bet, with six units being used as the stake.