Will Burnley FC secure the next three points?

On Friday, the 39th matchday in the second English league already starts and thus it slowly goes towards the end of the season. Burnley FC welcomes AFC Sunderland and therefore a very exciting match awaits us. While the hosts want to secure promotion to the Premier League as soon as possible, the visitors want to keep up with the play-off places. If we look at the bookmakers’ betting odds between Burnley and Sunderland, the bettors seem to be assuming a win for the home side.

Burnley FC are still unbeaten at home and are therefore also in first place in the home table. Vincent Kompany’s side have picked up 47 points from 18 home games and are accordingly favourites going into the game against Sunderland.
Their form in recent weeks has also been very good, with Burnley losing only one game in 2023. The defeat came in the quarter-finals of the FA Cup against Manchester City and was therefore to be expected and should only play a minor role in the analysis.

AFC Sunderland’s away record is quite good, with the visitors picking up 29 points from 19 games on foreign soil. This puts Tony Mowbray’s team in fifth place in the away table and should therefore go into the upcoming match with confidence.

However, the form of the visiting team argues against a win for the outsiders. Sunderland have only won one of their last six games and are in a crisis of form. The only win came at Norwich, while the games against Sheffield, Stoke, Coventry and Rotherham were lost. Therefore, between Burnley and Sunderland, the odds are also clearly against an away win.

We recommend the tip “both teams score – yes” between Burnley and Sunderland. A goal from the home side seems almost inevitable, as the Clarets score an average of two goals per game. On the other hand, AFC also have one of the best offences in the league and scored twice against Burnley FC in the first leg.

Burnley – Statistics & current form

Burnley are top of the English second division and are one of the favourites for direct promotion. Vincent Kompany’s side have picked up 83 points from 37 games to move 16 points clear of third place. Promotion to the Premier League is almost out of reach for the Clarets, with just 24 points up for grabs for the majority of teams. Even the Championship is as good as won, as the gap to second place is already 13 points and so we will see Burnley in the English top flight next season.

Dominant in all areas

The Clarets are by far the best offensive side in the Championship with 74 goals. On average, Vincent Kompany’s side score two goals per game, making them almost unstoppable. A goal against Sunderland therefore seems inevitable.

Burnley FC also have the best defence in the second division. In 37 games, the hosts have conceded only 29 goals and have already managed to keep a clean sheet 16 times. That is also the best value in the Championship.

The successful coach

Vincent Kompany is still a very inexperienced coach at the age of 36, yet he has a remarkable statistic. With Burnley he scored an average of 2.20 points per game and only lost four out of 45 games – an incredibly good statistic.

Only recently, the Belgian met his former club Manchester City and received high praise from coach Pep Guardiola. The Skyblues’ current coach said at the press conference that Vincent Kompany will one day be the head coach at Manchester City.

loan player from Southampton

Nathan Tella is one of the top scorers in the English second division with 17 goals and that’s as an attacking midfielder. Only two players, Viktor Gyölkeres and Chuba Akpom found their way into the opponent’s goal more often.

At the age of 23, the Englishman is thus one of the most interesting players in the Championship. He will return to Southampton FC in the summer, but a stay is currently difficult to imagine, as the Saints are in last place in the Premier League.

Last games played by Burnley:

FA Cup
19/03/2023 – Manchester City 6 – 0 Burnley

Championship
16/03/2023 – Hull 1 – 3 Burnley

11/03/2023 – Burnley 3 – 0 Wigan

04/03/2023 – Blackpool 0 – 0 Burnley

FA Cup
02/03/2023 – Burnley 1 – 0 Fleetwood

Sunderland – Statistics & current form

AFC Sunderland are currently eleventh in the Championship. That is actually better than it looks at first glance, as the play-off places are only seven points away. Tony Mowbray’s side have picked up 53 points from 38 games and desperately need a win at Burnley to stay in the top six. It should not be forgotten that the visitors were only promoted in the summer of 2022. For the promoted team, the season is and will remain a complete success, because staying in the league was goal number one.

Slight problems in the defence

The visiting team conceded 46 goals in 38 games this season. This puts Sunderland in 13th place in the league, meaning that Tony Mowbray’s side have conceded an average of 1.21 goals and have only managed to keep a clean sheet nine times.

In attack, things look much better, as AFC are fourth in the Championship with 53 goals. Only the top 3 with Burnley, Sheffield and Middlesbrough found the way into the opponent’s goal more often.

Scottish Vardy

Ross Stewart is writing a similar story to Jamie Vardy and was on his way to the Premier League. However, the AFC centre-forward suffered a serious injury against Fulham in the FA Cup and will miss Sunderland for a while.

In the first half of the season, the Scotsman scored ten goals and set up three. This made him one of the best attacking players in the Championship. In pre-season, the attacker was already top scorer in League One, after previously failing to make the big breakthrough in Scotland.

New signing from Tottenham

Sunderland signed Jack Clarke from Tottenham Hotspurs in the summer. He had previously spent six months on loan at AFC and helped the club gain promotion to the Championship. There is no information about the transfer fee.

The midfielder scored seven goals and set up six others this season. His market value rose by three million euros in this season alone and now stands at eight million euros. The transfer has thus absolutely paid off.

Last games of Sunderland:

Championship
18/03/2023 – Sunderland 1 – 1 Luton

16/03/2023 – Sunderland 1 – 2 Sheffield United

12/03/2023 – Norwich 0 – 1 Sunderland

04/03/2023 – Sunderland 1 – 5 Stoke

25/02/2023 – Coventry 2 – 1 Sunderland

Burnley – Sunderland Direct comparison / H2H record

The direct comparison between the two teams actually goes to the underdog. Sunderland have won 46 games against Burnley, while the hosts are on 39 wins. The last meeting took place in the first leg and was won 4-2 by the Clarets.

In the process, AFC squandered a 2-0 half-time lead. A similar result is conceivable next Friday, although we will probably not see six goals again. The home side are favoured and therefore our prediction between Burnley and Sunderland also goes in the direction of the home team.

Burnley – Sunderland tip

We play the tip “over 1.5 goals for the home team” between Burnley and Sunderland. The home side are the clear favourites in this clash, are still unbeaten at home and scored four goals at Sunderland. Therefore, we think it is quite realistic that the hosts will score twice. In addition, the defence of the visiting team is anything but solid and has conceded twelve goals in the past six games.

Also interesting are the odds for over 2.5 goals between Burnley and Sunderland. The visitors are not particularly good in defence, but they have one of the best offences in the league. Therefore, we also trust the visiting team to score a goal. The first leg ended with 4:2 and was therefore high-scoring. Therefore, three goals seem quite likely in the second leg.