Can Burnley take advantage of their opponents’ personnel worries?
This Saturday at Turf Moor in the east of England, two teams meet whose record could hardly be more even this millennium. Burnley have won 9 matches and Leicester City 13, with 9 draws (duels since 2002).
The bookmakers also rate the chances of both teams winning as even, with odds on Burnley FC winning at around 3.00 for a home win only slightly above those for an away win at around 2.45.
Burnley FC had to face second division Huddersfield Town in the cup during the week and suffered a setback with a third round exit, whereas Leicester can go into the upcoming clash rested as they did not have a game to play during the week.
We analyse the form of both teams, as well as the statistics relevant to the match to find the best bet for Burnley vs Leicester.
Burnley – Statistics & current form
Burnley FC home games are not a spectacle this season, which can be seen from the goal difference of 8:8 goals after 7 completed home games. The home record is also quite capable of improvement (1 – 4 – 2). After all, home defeats are not necessarily the order of the day at Turf Moor, but neither are victories.
Also not to be left out of the Burnley vs Leicester prediction is the fact that Burnley have failed to score in 43% of their home games this season. A footballing treat is probably not to be expected in the upcoming match against Leicester.
Offensive often harmless
Also an over-3.5 has only been scored in 2 of the 7 home games. However, these were against teams from neighbouring regions of the table (Crystal Palace and Brentford), teams against whom points are almost mandatory for Burnley FC to secure another season in England’s top division. In each of these home games Burnley scored 3 own goals, in the remaining 5 home games only 2! own goals were added.
However, the defence is quite stable in the home games, on average only 1 goal was conceded per game, even against offensively strong teams like Arsenal FC and West Ham United only 1 goal was conceded together.
Stronger at home than away
Without the home games this season, Burnley FC would probably no longer be within striking distance of the non-relegation places. After all, 7 of the previous 11 points were taken at home. In the last 5 league home games, Burnley have only lost once, on 18 September against Arsenal London. Since then they have remained unbeaten in 4 home games.
Coach Dyche will “only” have to do without Cornet and Barnes, but Wood, Gudmundsson and Roberts are still questionable. The loss of Woods in particular is likely to further weaken the offensive after the loss of Cornet, who has been the top scorer so far. The attacking duo have scored 9 of Burnley FC’s 16 goals this season alone.
Last games played by Burnley:
FA Cup
01/08 2022 – Burnley 1 – 2 Huddersfield
Premier League
01/02 2022 – Leeds 3 – 1 Burnley
12/30 2021 – Manchester United 3 – 1 Burnley
12/12 2021 – Burnley 0 – 0 West Ham
12/04 2021 – Newcastle United 1 – 0 Burnley
Leicester – Statistics & current form
Leicester City are playing an average Premier League season so far. The season balance is exactly even (7 – 4 – 7). However, it has to be stated that most of the points have been taken at home and away only 2 measly victories in 9 games are to be recorded. Of the last 5 away games, only one was won, on 24.10. against Brentford. Since then they have drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last two away games.
However, Leicester have scored a goal of their own in every away game so far this league season, but have also always conceded at least one goal in every away game. Whether that will be the case this weekend without the numerous absences, especially of top scorer Vardy, is doubtful, which adds value to the bet that both teams will not score.
Big personnel worries
Coach Rodgers will have to do without a total of 9 players for this weekend’s game against Burnley due to injuries, Africa Cup and viral infections, with of course the absence of top scorer Vardy weighing the heaviest. Another 8 regulars are questionable due to injuries and infections, including key players such as both defenders Söyüncü and Castagne.
Last games of Leicester:
FA Cup
01/08 2022 – Leicester 4 – 1 Watford
Premier League
12/28 2021 – Leicester 1 – 0 Liverpool FC
12/26 2021 – Manchester City 6 – 3 Leicester
Carabao Cup
12/22 2021 – Liverpool FC (5)3 – 3(4) Leicester
Premier League
12/12 2021 – Leicester 4 – 0 Newcastle United
Burnley – Leicester Direct comparison / H2H record
These two teams have faced each other in 73 matches. The direct comparison is in favour of Burnley FC, who left the pitch as winners 29 times, with 21 draws and 23 lost duels. However, Leicester have only managed to win one of their last 3 visiting matches at Turf Moor in the 2018/2019 season.
Burnley – Leicester Tip
With Burnley against Leicester, our prediction is influenced on the one hand by the absences of important regulars, especially among the top scorers of both clubs. The Foxes’ weak away record must also be taken into account, while the few defeats in the Clarets’ home games also mean that the chances of at least a point win are not unrealistic. On the other hand, a filigree football match with many goals is hardly to be expected.
Due to the adverse circumstances affecting the Foxes more than anyone else, our Burnley Leicester pre-match tip is : 1X and under 3.5 goals. We recommend a bet of 4 out of 10 units.
