Will the Cherries take advantage of Burnley’s weakness at home?

Burnley FC are taking giant strides towards direct relegation after last year’s EFL Championship title. The Clarets have picked up just 13 points from their 26 league games to date and are already eleven points adrift of safety. As a result, the tendency in the clash between Burnley and Bournemouth is to back the visiting team to win, especially as the Clarets have lost ten of their 13 Premier League home games in the 2023/24 season (one win, two draws).

However, the Cherries do not travel to the east of Lancashire with the best record. Bournemouth have not won any of their last seven league games (three draws, four defeats) and were knocked out of the FA Cup at home to second-tier Leicester City on Tuesday night. As such, the prediction of an away win for Burnley against Bournemouth is by no means a foregone conclusion

Given that Burnley FC have already conceded a whopping 58 goals in their 26 league games in the 2023/24 season and have conceded at least three goals in eleven of their 26 Premier League games, this could be a high-scoring match at Turf Moor. The Clarets must not hide at the back either if they are to break the deadlock.

We expect an open exchange of blows, especially in the second half. In this context, there is a lot of value in betting that at least two more goals will be scored after the break

Burnley – Statistics & current form

Burnley Football Club is a traditional club that was not only a founding member of the Football League in 1888, but has also won the national championship twice in 1921 and 1960.

Most recently, however, the Clarets only competed in the EFL Championship, from which they emerged as champions in the summer of 2023. Under promotion coach Vincent Kompany, they were then expected to re-establish themselves in the Premier League. At the moment, however, everything points to the club from the east of Lancashire being relegated straight away

Defensively in particular, Burnley lack competitiveness

The team from the north-west of England have picked up just 13 points in the 26 matchdays so far. This means they are already eleven points behind the drop zone. With twelve games still to play, it would probably take a medium-sized soccer miracle for the Clarets to remain in the top flight in 2024/25.

Even now, the odds are clearly against Vincent Kompany’s side in Burnley v Bournemouth, who have major defensive deficiencies in particular. They have conceded at least three goals in eleven of their 26 Premier League games this season – including the three recent defeats against Liverpool (1:3), Arsenal (0:5) and Crystal Palace (0:3) in a row

Burnley are by far the weakest home team in the Premier League

The club from the east of Lancashire go into this home game against the Cherries suitably down on their luck. Burnley have lost ten of their 13 Premier League games at home to Turf Moor so far in the 2023/24 season (one win, two draws).

One of the reasons for this was a very careless handling of leads. The Clarets have already squandered eleven points in home games after taking the lead. Only Brentford (twelve) have been more hospitable in front of a home crowd. However, there is one small ray of hope: Burnley have only lost one of their last 14 home games against Bournemouth in league action (seven wins, six draws).

Predicted Burnley line-up:

Bournemouth – Statistics & current form

AFC Bournemouth have been in existence since 1899, but were first promoted to the Premier League in the 2015/16 season, to which the Cherries returned in the summer of 2022, two years after their relegation.

The club, also known as Boscombe, finished in 15th place last season and had to tremble for a long time. Under new coach Andoni Iraola, planning certainty for another year in the top flight of English soccer could now come much sooner. After 25 games, they are in 14th place and eight points clear of the first relegation spot

Bournemouth were particularly vulnerable defensively away from home

If the Cherries win away at Burnley against Bournemouth, it would be another big step towards staying in the league for the club from the ceremonial county of Dorset in the south-west of England.

However, just as the Clarets have been careless with leads at home, only Brentford FC (14) have conceded more points from leads in away games than Boscombe (12). The 29 goals they have already conceded in 13 Premier League away games are also evidence of a lack of compactness, which in turn underpins our bet on a high-scoring match.

Bournemouth have lost the momentum

Andoni Iraola’s side have recently lost the momentum they had built up. After Bournemouth remained winless in the first nine matchdays of the 2023/24 season (three draws, six defeats), a strong phase followed with seven wins from nine consecutive league games (one draw, one defeat).

From then on, however, the Cherries went seven Premier League games without a win (three draws, four defeats) and also lost at home to second-tier Leicester City in the FA Cup on Tuesday evening. Boscombe’s chest is not too broad at the moment.

Predicted line-up for Bournemouth:

Burnley – Bournemouth head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 16 – 11 – 8

A total of 35 meetings have taken place between the two teams so far and with 16 wins, Burnley clearly lead the direct comparison. Although the Clarets lost the first leg 2-1, they have only lost one of their last 14 home league games against the Cherries (seven wins, six draws).

Burnley – Bournemouth betting tip

The betting odds for Burnley v Bournemouth are very clearly in favor of the visitors, which is a very bold assessment given that Boscombe have not won in seven Premier League games in a row (three draws, four defeats). Of course, the Cherries, who have already won the first leg 2-1, are favorites, but this is due to the Clarets’ weakness at home, having lost ten of their 13 Premier League home games at Turf Moor so far in the 2023/24 season (one win, two draws).

Nonetheless, the odds for tip 2 are too low to justify the risk, especially as the Cherries have won just four of their 13 Premier League away games in the 2023/24 season (three draws, six defeats). We therefore prefer to predict a high-scoring duel between Burnley and Bournemouth