Does Freiburg’s mega run end in Munich?
Before the teams go into the international break for the last time this calendar year, we are in for another really important and, above all, exciting Bundesliga matchday this coming weekend. Especially the matches between FC Bayern and Freiburg as well as RB Leipzig against Dortmund provide a lot of anticipation.
Will the Sport-Club from Breisgau remain unbeaten after the most difficult of all away games in the German top flight or will the impressive series of Streich’s eleven come to an end at the record champions, who have recovered well from the cup defeat in Gladbach thanks to two clear victories.
A possibly even more open and offensive duel awaits us on Saturday evening from 18:30. It will be a rematch of the DFB Cup final from the previous season between RB Leipzig and Dortmund. For the Saxons in particular, it will be a game that points the way ahead, as in the event of a defeat they would have to let their black and yellow opponents draw to within twelve points.
Mainz vs. Gladbach – 05 November, 20:30
FSV Mainz 05 have certainly had positive experiences with games on Friday nights this season. Around a fortnight ago, the Rheinhessen side won 4-1 at home to FC Augsburg in the only one of its kind, ending a losing streak that had previously lasted three matches. Last weekend, Svensson’s team also celebrated a three-goal win in Bielefeld, which allowed them to climb up to fifth place in the standings.
However, the opponents from Mönchengladbach are by no means lacking in self-confidence. The Fohlen followed up their sensational 5:0 victory in the DFB Cup against FC Bayern with a 2:1 win in Bochum last Sunday. Ten points in the past five matches are a positive result that impressively underlines the rising form curve of the team from the Lower Rhine.
But because FSV have only won one of their last ten home games against Borussia, while Hütter’s team have failed to perform as well away from home time and time again, it is too risky for us to place a bet on the outcome of the match. Instead, there is much to suggest that odds on Over 2.5 goals are an interesting option for the Bundesliga opener on Matchday 11.
Bayern vs. Freiburg – 06 November, 15:30
21 times SC Freiburg have been guests of FC Bayern in the Bundesliga. However, the Breisgauer have never been able to win at the record champion. In the past 17 attempts at the Isar, the Black Forest side has only managed one measly point. The signs before the top match of matchday 11 therefore seem clear. The top team is, of course, the firm favourite against the third-placed team.
However, the Sport-Club has rarely travelled to Munich with such a broad chest. Streich’s eleven is still the only unbeaten team on the road. They also have the best defence in the league and have scored more points than any other team in the last five matchdays. Now, however, FCB is one of the strongest teams in Europe at the moment, which is running hot week after week, especially offensively.
In our eyes, there are two suitable approaches for this duel, both of which, however, point in the direction of the “Nagelsmänner”. Either you try the somewhat risky bet that Bayern will win & both teams will score at least once. Or you trust the dominance of Lewandowski and Co. unreservedly and play the top match of the Bundesliga on matchday 11 with betting odds on the double HT1/FT1. With seven of Munich’s eight wins this season, this recommendation would actually have gone through.
Wolfsburg vs. Augsburg – 06 November, 15:30
Florian Kohfeldt could hardly have imagined a much better start to his new job. The former Bremen man first led Wolfsburg to an away win in Leverkusen the previous week and then celebrated the important first CL win of the current season at home against RB Salzburg during the week. The home game against FCA should be a mere formality…
First setback for new coach Kohfeldt?
Not at all, as the statistics show, because the Lower Saxons have only won two of the last ten home games against the Fuggerstädter. Only against FC Bayern do the Green-Whites have a lower win rate in front of a home crowd than against FCA, who were also able to boost their self-confidence in the previous week.
Thanks to the 4:1 victory in the Swabian derby against VfB Stuttgart, Weinzierl’s team stayed in touch with the non-relegation places and is now desperate to improve on that in the Autostadt. Perhaps Alfred Finnbogason, whose mega-streak of 24 first league games without a goal finally came to an end the previous week, will help.
We think it is quite possible that VfL will not really feel comfortable in the role of heavy favourites and will remain without a win in their third consecutive home match against Augsburg. In the Bundesliga on matchday 11, the betting tips in favour of the Bavarian Swabians promise an extremely attractive value.
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bielefeld – 06 November, 15:30
Fans can probably not look forward to a football spectacle with many offensive highlights in the match between VfB Stuttgart and Bielefeld on Saturday afternoon. Both teams are going through difficult phases at the moment. Arminia is one of only two teams that is still without a win. The Swabians, meanwhile, have only won one of their last nine Bundesliga games and lost 1:4 in the derby at Augsburg the previous week.
The standings should also not be underestimated, as there is a lot at stake between 13th and 17th. Losing could also be the motto. From the visitors’ point of view, it is even more difficult that the offensive is not working at all. With six goals scored, the East Westphalians have the least dangerous attack in the league. In 60% of all DSC matches, a bet on the under 2.5 would have been crowned with success. On a positive note, however, the Bielefeld side have gone without conceding a goal in four of their last six duels against the Swabians.
We don’t expect many goals to be scored on Saturday either. There is simply a lack of confidence on both sides. In addition, the lack of goals means that Kramer’s team will have to adopt a defensive approach in order to create chances.
Bochum vs. Hoffenheim – 06 November, 15:30
Did you know that VfL Bochum only have a higher winning percentage in the Bundesliga against Greuther Fürth (100%) than against TSG Hoffenheim (50%). Admittedly, this value must be put into perspective somewhat, as the two teams have only met four times in Germany’s top division.
Nevertheless, the Ruhr team does not seem to be without a chance on Saturday afternoon, because especially at home, the team of coach Thomas Reis has so far been absolutely suitable for the Bundesliga. Seven points from four home games are a rock-solid haul. In three of the four games in front of a home crowd, the cup eighth-finalists were able to keep their clean slate.
However, because TSG have also produced good results recently and have won three of their last five league games, betting on the outcome of the match would possibly be too big a risk. More lucrative seems to be the betting market on which of the two rounds will produce more goals. It should be taken into account that both teams scored more goals in the second 45 minutes and conceded more. Consequently, the recommendation for a higher-scoring second half is definitely worth a bet.
RB Leipzig vs. Dortmund – 06 November, 18:30
The most notable top match this coming weekend goes down at the Red Bull Arena on Saturday evening from 18:30. After eight consecutive winless duels, RB Leipzig will finally be looking to score three points against Dortmund.
But it will be a difficult task for the Marsch team, as BVB have now won four Bundesliga matches in a row. In fact, only twice in the history of the Bundesliga has a Dortmund team had more points on its account than the current team. Despite another 3-1 defeat at Ajax Amsterdam last week, coach Marco Rose’s team, who returns to his home country this weekend, is in decent shape.
The same can be said for the Saxons, however, who have recently gone six consecutive league games without defeat after an underwhelming start to the season and also celebrated a creditable point against Paris St Germain during the week. Also interesting: In all of RB’s seven home games across the competition this season, a bet on over 2.5 goals would have gone through. BVB even scored at least three goals in eight out of ten Bundesliga matches.
We therefore refrain from taking any big risks in this clash and are instead convinced that betting tips on a high-scoring match will pay off in one of the top matches in the Bundesliga on matchday 11. The Over 2.5 should go through relatively safely. With a little more courage, it is also possible to go for Over 3.5.
Hertha vs. Leverkusen – 07 November, 15:30
On top form, the Werkself is a tough opponent for many teams in Europe; however, on bad days, coach Seoane’s team can lose to any Bundesliga team (and even second division teams: see DFB Pokal against KSC).
Will Leverkusen be stronger away than at home?
On Sunday afternoon, the Rhinelanders take on Hertha from Berlin. Among other things, the statistics give hope, because the “old lady” has only lost more Bundesliga games against Bayern and Hoffenheim than against Bayer Leverkusen. In the last four direct duels, however, the capital club remained unbeaten and even without conceding a goal.
Nevertheless, we expect the Seoane eleven to return to winning ways on Sunday after only one point from the last three games and to bring the necessary quality to the pitch. Hertha have already conceded 23 goals during the season and are once again living up to their reputation as a “surprise package”. Six defeats in the first ten matchdays is definitely an argument that allows us to make predictions in the direction of the Europa League participants in the first Sunday match of the Bundesliga on Matchday 11.
Cologne vs. Union Berlin – 07 November, 17:30
With 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin, two absolute cult teams face each other in a direct duel on Sunday afternoon. This clash will of course be shaped by the personnel of Steffen Baumgart, who is currently in charge of the “Effzeh”, but who experienced exciting years with the Eisernen during his active career.
Basically, we expect an open encounter in which one or two goals could be scored. This is supported, for example, by the fact that in 60% of all Cologne matches this season, the 2.5 goal mark has been broken. At home, only the 1-1 draw against RB Leipzig resulted in fewer than three goals.
Against an opponent who is in the third consecutive English week, the cathedral cities will press the tempo more than ever and seek their salvation in the offensive. The logical consequence could be an offensive spectacle in which both teams score at least once. In matches involving Union, both teams scored in 70% of all Bundesliga matches; in the case of the Geißböcken, 80% of the time. Value is therefore present in any case.
Fürth vs. Frankfurt – 07 November, 19:30
After Frankfurt were still in action in Greece as part of the Europa League on Thursday evening, the stumbling Hesse side head to Fürth for a relegation thriller on Sunday evening. The bottom team in the league, which has only managed to add one point to its tally so far, will face perhaps the biggest disappointment of the season. One win, six draws and three defeats are currently on the books for Eintracht.
It’s quite possible that the cloverleaf will be the desired rebuilding opponent. After all, the Spielvereinigung is winless in 21 home games in the top flight. To be more precise, the Green-Whites have never won at home in the Bundesliga! They have lost all of their last eight league games. They are already eight points off the relegation places. The figures read catastrophic.
Although the Eagles are not brimming with confidence at the moment, Oliver Glasner’s team naturally has more individual quality and experience in such phases of a season. After the 1-1 draw against RB Leipzig the previous week, we are therefore optimistic that the Hessians will return from Franconia with three points on Sunday. At the end of the Bundesliga on matchday 11, tips on a Frankfurt away win are a clear recommendation.
