Brussels will play for a place in the play-offs

The league phase of the UEFA Europa League is entering its decisive phase. With two matchdays to go, there are still many vacant places in the round of 16 or the intermediate round, which all teams in places nine to 24 will reach. Two clubs that are also hoping that their international adventure will continue in February will face off on Thursday evening for three important points. Between Royale Union SG and Braga, the tip on the outcome of the game depends on many questions.

Can the northern Portuguese confirm their recent strong performances in the league at the international level? Is the Belgian representative from Saint Gilloise celebrating its third EL victory in a row? How much risk will both teams take with a view to the table, in which they are only separated by one point? Basically, before the duel Royale Union SG against Braga, there is a lot to be said for a forecast of a balanced match on equal terms without clear advantages for either of the two teams.

Without in-depth analysis, the value can therefore be assumed between Royale Union SG and Braga in the odds on the guest. A 1.95 on the home win in the Interwetten app is offset by a whopping 3.90 at the top for the away win. However, those who believe in a point-sharing result that would not really help either team will find the top odds of 3.75 at Bwin.

Royale Union SG – Statistics & current form

Including the Europa League qualifier, Royale Union Saint Gilloise have already played 34 competitive games this season. The fact that they have only conceded eight defeats is quite remarkable, although it has to be said that the blue-and-yellows have also “only” managed 14 victories across all competitions and have already drawn a whopping twelve games. Incidentally, too many draws are also the problem in the domestic league, where no club has had to accept fewer defeats (three) and RUSG, in third place with ten (!) draws, is still eleven points behind leaders Genk.

Does RUSG need an early pick-me-up again?

A draw does not seem out of the question on Thursday evening either, because in two of the three home games played so far in the EL league phase, there was also no winner. The main problem on the international stage is the low offensive output. Coach Sebastian Pocognoli’s team have scored just five goals in six games. They only managed to score twice in the home win against OGC Nice.

It is also interesting to note that Saint Gilloise have fallen behind 0-1 in five of their eight European matches this season, including in qualifying. It is quite possible that the home team will concede the first goal of the game again on Thursday evening. Impressive odds of 2.37 can be found in the Bwin app for a corresponding bet between Royale Union SG and Braga.

Only two clean sheets in their last ten competitive matches support my assumption that the guest from Portugal should definitely be able to score in the Brussels-Capital Region. The starting position underlines this approach, because in view of the difficult away game against the Glasgow Rangers next week, the Belgians will actually have to play for a win to defend their current 20th place or to get an excellent starting position. There will inevitably be dangerous counterattacks for the high-quality Braga offense.

Braga – Statistics & current form

Admittedly, Sporting Braga are even more under pressure than the home side ahead of the last two matchdays in the UEFA Europa League. On the one hand, because the northern Portuguese, as 25th in the standings – as things stand – would not even qualify for the playoffs. On the other hand, they face a home game against league leaders Lazio Rome next week after the complicated away game in Belgium on Thursday evening. There is a risk of an early knockout, but at best this can still be averted.

From a guest perspective, it would be particularly helpful if the prediction of a three-pointer for the away team between Royale Union SG and Braga came true. However, the bookmakers see the Red & Whites as clear outsiders and are offering a whopping 3.90 for Braga’s success in the Betano app.

Braga are always a threat going forward

I’m not at all averse to betting on Carlos Carvalhal’s team. The team currently sitting in fourth place in the Primeira Liga in Portugal is in good form and has recently proved time and again that they are always capable of causing problems for opposing defensive lines, especially in attack. For example, “Os Arcebispos” won in the league against Benfica Lisbon. They have also won four of their last six competitive games. Since mid-September, Braga has scored at least one goal in all their domestic matches.

In the modified Europa League preliminary round so far, it has primarily been defensive failings that have undone better results. Ten goals have been scored in six matches. The team from northern Portugal are now waiting for their tenth European away game without conceding a clean sheet. In total, they have conceded 23 goals during this period. In five of the six European Cup games in which Braga have participated, Over 2.5 would have been accepted. On Thursday, in the most pragmatic case, two goals would be enough for the betting odds of a maximum of 1.56 at Merkur Bets on at least one goal in each half to pay off in the Royale Union SG v Braga duel.

Royale Union SG – Braga Direct comparison / H2H record

In 2022/23, the clubs faced each other in the group stage of the Europa League. In Braga, RUSG won 2-1. At home, however, the Belgians had to settle for a 3-3 draw. Although it is probably only relevant to superstitious sports bettors: Braga also took a 1-0 lead in both of these direct duels.

Royale Union SG – Braga Tip

Royale Union Saint Gilloise have only won one of three home games in this Europa League season. This may be due to the fact that the yellow-and-blues have to play their home matches in the King Baudouin Stadium in Brussels. So even on Thursday evening, the supposedly clear home advantage has to be put into perspective. Not least for this reason, I think the visitors from Portugal will do well in Belgium. Carvalhal’s team most recently won at Benfica Lisbon and has emerged victorious in four of its last six competitive matches. In particular, the club from the north of the country has a lot of individual quality in attack.
Given the starting position, which means that both teams are actually under pressure to win, I also expect a fairly lively encounter. Anyone who also knows that RUSG has already fallen behind 0-1 in five of the eight European Cup matches played this season will surely understand why I am betting on the Royale Union SG vs. Braga tip for the first goal of the game for the red and whites for four out of a possible ten units. In an estimated 50/50 constellation, 2.37 for the 1-0 lead of the strong offensive guests is far too high and therefore offers value.