Never before have the hosts won this clash

Fans of the English Premier League can by no means complain about a lack of excitement this season. Decisions are still open in all areas and yet there is a wide-ranging midfield, which “only” plays for a little points bonus and prestige in the finish. Such a duel will go down on Sunday afternoon at the AMEX Stadium – hosts Brighton welcome Southampton.

Both teams are currently in no-man’s land in the table. Brighton have 40 points and are in tenth place, while Southampton have 39 points and are in 13th place. Although the two teams have similar statistics, the bookmakers are heavily favouring a home win between Brighton and Southampton. An assessment that must at least be questioned, because there are enough arguments that speak against the team of Graham Potter.

One of these arguments, for example, is that in nine direct Premier League duels between the two teams, the host has never won. Will this change in the tenth duel? The answers to this question will be revealed on Sunday from 3 p.m.

Brighton – Statistics & current form

In their fifth year in the English Premier League, Graham Potter’s Seagulls have taken a step forward. The best points haul in an entire PL season so far is 41 points in the last two years. Brighton & Hove Albion could reach or even surpass this figure as early as this Sunday. After 33 games played, they now have 40 points on their side.

Brighton disappoint at home

A lot more could have been achieved this season if the team had not had such problems at home. Two of the first three home games this season were still won, since then there has only been one meagre win in 13 attempts for the Potter eleven. Interesting statistic on the side – the Seagulls have won the same number of games in the capital this season (three) as they have at home.

One of those wins in London came over the Easter weekend, when Brighton claimed a surprise 1-0 win at CL aspirants Tottenham thanks to a last-minute goal from Leandro Trossard. The defence was impressive as goalkeeper Robert Sanchez did not have to defend a single ball.

In general, the Seagulls are a team where betting on an under 2.5 is very promising this season. On average, only 2.09 goals are scored per league game, with only nine times seeing three or more goals. Under 2.5 is certainly a realistic bet between Brighton and Southampton. Especially because the Potter eleven has forgotten how to score goals at home. Brighton have failed to score in their last five home games and have only scored ten goals in 16 games at home.

Predicted Brighton line-up:
Sanchez – Cucurella, Dunk, Veltman – March, Caicedo, Lallana, Mwepu, Lamptey – Welbeck, Groß

Last matches played by Brighton:

Premier League
21/04/2022 – Manchester City 3 – 0 Brighton

16/04/2022 – Tottenham 0 – 1 Brighton

09/04/2022 – Arsenal FC 1 – 2 Brighton

02/04/2022 – Brighton 0 – 0 Norwich

17/03/2022 – Brighton 0 – 2 Tottenham

Southampton – Statistics & current form

As a fan of Southampton FC, you are used to ups and downs by now, as the Hasenhüttl eleven is consistently inconsistent. Again and again, surprises succeed, but there are also games in which the Saints have been dismantled into their individual parts. Southampton recently lost 6-0 at home to Chelsea, only to beat Arsenal 1-0 at the same venue seven days later.

Surprise followed by disappointment

The win against the Gunners was a liberating blow after disappointing results, the first victory after five winless games. But the success was by no means sustainable, because on Thursday evening the Saints still hosted relegation candidates FC Burnley. Southampton were beaten 2-0 by the Clarets. The current form table does not necessarily serve as an encouragement, as the Saints have collected just seven meagre points in the last eight league games. There is no great pressure, however, as Ralph Hasenhüttl’s team are mid-table in the league with 39 points.

Good memories of a Sunday

In addition to the recent results at AMEX Stadium from a Saints perspective, there is another statistic that serves as an encouragement for Sunday’s game. The Saints have won four of their last five away games on a Sunday in the Premier League. Mind you, Southampton previously needed 30 Sunday games away from home to claim four victories. So the last day of the week has been extremely positive from Southampton’s point of view in the recent past. In terms of personnel, the 13th-placed team will still only have to do without long-term injured goalkeeper Alex McCarthy.

Predicted Southampton line-up:
Forster – Lyanco, Bednarek, Valery – Perraud, Ward-Prowse, Romeu, Walker-Peters – Elyounoussi, S. Armstrong – Broja

Last matches played by Southampton:

Premier League
22/04/2022 – Burnley 2 – 0 Southampton

16/04/2022 – Southampton 1 – 0 Arsenal FC

09/04/2022 – Southampton 0 – 6 Chelsea FC

02/04/2022 – Leeds 1 – 1 Southampton

FA Cup
20/03/2022 – Southampton 1 – 4 Manchester City

Brighton – Southampton Direct comparison / H2H record

Southampton definitely cannot be called a favourite opponent from the Seagulls’ point of view. There have been nine duels in the English Premier League so far, only once did Brighton celebrate a success against the Saints. This was at St Mary’s Stadium, which means that Brighton have not yet won a PL home game against Southampton (one draw, three defeats). The last three appearances at the AMEX Stadium have all ended in success for Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side. Never before have Southampton won four PL away games in a row against the same opponents. Should this be the case, betting odds of up to 3.60 are on offer on Brighton v Southampton on Saturday.

Brighton – Southampton betting tips

A duel in which a home game is definitely not an advantage. Never in the Premier League could the host prevail in this match. It is therefore all the more surprising that odds of just 2.25 are being offered for a home win on Sunday afternoon between Brighton and Southampton. Especially as the Seagulls have been disappointing all the way at home recently (one win in 13 games, goalless for five games, only ten home goals).

With Southampton, a forecast is often associated with risk due to the enormous fluctuations in performance, which is why we also refrain from betting on the three-way market. However, due to the direct comparison, a 2.60 for the DNB2 is extremely interesting. Our recommendation as the best choice in the duel between Brighton and Southampton is the forecast on the bet that not both teams score.