Liverpool must not allow themselves to slip

Jürgen Klopp is known for criticising the packed fixture list for top English clubs and also attacking those responsible. However, the German coach’s concerns about injuries or overloading his players are understandable. But why are we bringing this up just before the Reds’ away game at the Amex Stadium in Brighton?

The answer is the kick-off time. Although the 2020 champions were not in Champions League action until Tuesday evening, the aforementioned match in the south of England has already been scheduled for 12:30pm on Saturday. By comparison, all the other round of 16 teams in the top flight have been given a longer regeneration period. This is possibly one of the reasons why the odds on an away win between Brighton and Liverpool are higher than expected.

In purely sporting and table terms, however, there is virtually no doubt that the Reds will live up to their role as favourites against the Seagulls, who have been flagging of late. Despite the defeat against Inter Milan during the week, which, as we know, had no effect on their quarter-final spot, LFC are in impressive form and, especially at national level, are virtually unbeatable at the moment. It therefore takes some imagination to make a prediction on the underdog between Brighton and Liverpool.

Brighton – Statistics & current form

In Brighton these days, fans, players and officials are quite happy that the teams have already managed to build a good cushion on the relegation places in the first half of the season. If you take a look at the recent results of the Seagulls, it becomes clear that the form curve has been pointing steadily downwards for some weeks now.

In a review of the last eight Premier League games, only one victory was achieved. The last four matches were all lost. After three defeats in a row without a goal of their own, they at least managed to score a goal of their own again in the previous week’s 1-2 defeat against Newcastle.

Brighton are struggling with a results and attacking crisis

In league comparisons, however, only three other teams have marked fewer goals than the Blue and Whites, who have scored two or more goals on only seven of 27 occasions at all. Nine nil goals round off the below-average offensive statistics and at the same time provide a veritable argument for even betting on the Reds to win “to-nil” between Brighton and Liverpool.

The home record is also not a real encouragement for the upcoming match against the Merseyside side. Only three of 13 games at home have been victorious. Instead, they have already suffered five defeats. In total, only 26 goals were scored, i.e. an average of only two per home match. This in turn justifies the alternative approach of betting on a maximum of three goals in Saturday’s match at the Amex Stadium.

In their current form, we don’t trust the 13th-placed team to pull off a surprise against LFC. What is needed is a significant improvement on recent Premier League performances. Especially in the first 45 minutes they have to be more alert. At home against Burnley and Aston Villa as well as at Newcastle, Hove & Albion were already behind at the break, twice even with 0:2. At least coach Potter can almost draw from a full complement of players. The only definite and at the same time painful loss is that of Adam Webster.

Predicted line-up of Brighton:
Sanchez; Veltman, Dunk, Duffy; Lamptey, Moder, Bissouma, Gross, Cucurella; Trossard, Maupay

Last Brighton games:

Premier League
03/05 2022 – Newcastle United 2 – 1 Brighton

02/26 2022 – Brighton 0 – 2 Aston Villa

02/19 2022 – Brighton 0 – 3 Burnley

02/15 2022 – Manchester United 2 – 0 Brighton

02/12 2022 – Watford 0 – 2 Brighton

Liverpool – Statistics & current form

Liverpool have bounced back in the Premier League title race in recent weeks thanks to consistently good performances. While their toughest rivals, Manchester City, have dropped a few points here and there, there is no other team on the island that has recorded more points in the 2022 calendar year so far. Most recently, the Reds have celebrated seven league victories in a row, which have narrowed the gap in the table to six points. In addition, LFC still have a game to play.

In general, the current form is impressive. In the 16th competitive match after the turn of the year, they actually suffered their first ever defeat on Tuesday evening. However, the 1-0 defeat at home to Inter Milan in the second leg of the last 16 of the Champions League was not too much to worry about, as the team still managed to advance to the next round without any worries.

Liverpool have to manage their energy

Meanwhile, at national level, the last defeat dates back to 27 December. Coach Jürgen Klopp’s team has the best attack in the country (71 goals) and has also scored the most goals away from home. However, only one of the past six away games in the league has been won by two or more goals, so possible handicap bets tend to be discouraged.

Moreover, with the supposedly tougher catch-up game against the Gunners from London on the agenda next Wednesday, Salah and Co. will probably not stay on the accelerator when they take the lead at the Amex Stadium on Saturday lunchtime, but will manage their own strength. This assessment again argues for keeping an eye on the odds on the under 3.5 between Brighton and Liverpool.

After the end of their previous 12-match winning streak, we don’t believe that Klopp’s team will slip up in the championship and therefore expect a three-goal win for the visitors. In terms of personnel, the ex-Dortmund player will probably only have to do without the injured Konate. Firmino could return to the squad after injury. Henderson and Luis Diaz are options from the start, Thiago and Jota would probably have to make room for them.

Predicted Liverpool line-up:
Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Van Dijk, Robertson; Henderson, Fabinho, Keita; Salah, Mane, Diaz

Last matches played by Liverpool:

Champions League Final
03/08 2022 – Liverpool FC 0 – 1 Inter Milan

Premier League
03/05 2022 – Liverpool FC 1 – 0 West Ham

FA Cup
03/02 2022 – Liverpool FC 2 – 1 Norwich

Carabao Cup
02/27 2022 – Chelsea London (10)0 – 0(11) Liverpool FC

Premier League
02/23 2022 – Liverpool FC 6 – 0 Leeds

Brighton – Liverpool Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

In fact, the Reds have been waiting for a win against the Seagulls for three Premier League games now (one defeat, two draws).

To put that into perspective, Brighton have not won a single home game against LFC out of eight in the top flight (four draws, four defeats). Three of the last four trips to the south of the country have been victorious for the team from Merseyside.

Brighton – Liverpool Tip

On paper, the current Premier League runners-up face a must-win task on Saturday lunchtime. Their opponents are the faltering Seagulls, who have lost four in a row in the league and have only won one of their last eight league games. However, at least their record against LFC gives the underdogs hope, as none of their three most recent direct encounters in the league have been lost.

This is one of the reasons why the betting odds on an away win between Brighton and Liverpool are not as high as one might have expected. However, to suggest that Klopp’s side are beginning to dip in form after last week’s 1-0 defeat to Inter Milan and the end of a 12-game winning streak would be completely presumptuous in our eyes. The team is still brimming with self-confidence and will not allow itself to slip in the race for the title.

We therefore bet on an away win between Brighton and Liverpool. However, we combine this with the addition that a maximum of three goals will be scored in the course of the match. On the one hand, because the home side have failed to score in three of the last four PL matches and Klopp’s team have played to nil in four of the last five league games. On the other hand, considering the fact that it’s blow by blow for LFC these days and they’re more likely to go into administration mode if they take the lead.

For our combined bet on Liverpool to win including Under 3.5 goals, we get an exciting 2.50 at Bet365 at the top, which should be played with a medium stake. Alternatively, it is also conceivable to bet on another “to-nil” win for the visitors. Here, a 2.70 is offered as maximum odds at Unibet.