Will the Tuchel eleven end the drought at the AMEX Stadium?

Looking at the current table in the English Premier League is deceptive after the teams have all played different numbers of games. However, certain tendencies are already clearly visible and since last weekend at the latest it has become clear that Thomas Tuchel and his Blues have to write off winning the title. On Tuesday, the next match is already on the agenda and the reigning CL winner will finally hope for a full success. Brighton and Chelsea face each other at the AMEX Stadium.

Graham Potter’s Seagulls are certainly one of the big surprises this season and present themselves as extremely difficult opponents to defeat. Brighton have suffered four defeats so far, only the top three in the league have fewer defeats to show for it. Nevertheless, Brighton are considered clear underdogs against Chelsea according to the current odds. It is worth noting that Brighton have not led for a single minute in all 13 Premier League games against Chelsea.

The Seagulls will be fearful opponents, and despite the home advantage, a point would be a great success. The match kicks off on Tuesday evening at 9 p.m.

Brighton – Statistics & current form

Speaking of home advantage, this one is there, but you can’t really see an advantage with the Seagulls here. In the 20 league games so far, the Potter eleven has collected an average of 1.50 points away from home, while at home it is only 1.30 points per game. In addition, Brighton & Hove Albion conceded three of their four defeats of the season at home at the AMEX Stadium. Last weekend, they were only fortunate to avoid their fifth defeat of the season, an 87th-minute own goal from Crystal Palace defender Joachim Andersen earning them a point against the Eagles from Selhurst.

Tuesday? Only two wins in 14 matches

It’s not just the home side’s poor home record that works against them, but also the day of the week on which the game is played. Brighton have played 14 games on a Tuesday in their Premier League history, with just two meagre victories to their name (including against Manchester City in May 2021). On the other hand, there have been just four draws and eight defeats.

Further arguments against a surprise are the personnel worries in the camp of Graham Potter’s team. With Lewis Dunk, Enock Mwepu, Tudor Baluta (all injured) and Yves Bissouma (Africa Cup), a strong quartet is already missing. Adam Lallana was substituted with an injury against the Eagles and will probably also be on the list of absentees on Tuesday evening. The Seagulls’ squad depth is non-existent and, accordingly, the outlook for the Brighton v Chelsea game is bleak for a tip towards the home side.

Long breath sets Brighton apart

Qualitatively, Brighton will certainly have to make some sacrifices, but it is not for nothing that it is said that all players can show the necessary commitment. A virtue that definitely distinguishes the current ninth-placed team in the table this season. The few defeats are no coincidence, and the Potter team has been particularly convincing physically so far. Brighton have scored seven goals in the last ten minutes of the season, the most ever for the Seagulls in the PL. Therefore, in the top tips above for the Brighton vs Chelsea match, the prediction for a goal after 72:59 minutes of play is recommended.

Predicted line-up of Brighton:
Sanchez – Cucurella, Burn Webster, Veltman – March – Trossard, MacAllister, Moder, Great – Maupay

Last Brighton games:

Premier League
01/14 2022 – Brighton 1 – 1 Crystal Palace

FA Cup
01/08 2022 – West Bromwich Albion 1 – 2 Brighton

Premier League
01/02 2022 – Everton 2 – 3 Brighton

12/29 2021 – Chelsea London 1 – 1 Brighton

12/26 2021 – Brighton 2 – 0 Brentford

Chelsea – Statistics & current form

At the beginning, the shattered dream of the championship was alluded to and, given that they are now 13 points behind (and the same number of games played), no prophet is needed for this thesis. The narrow 1-0 defeat in the top match against Manchester City was Thomas Tuchel’s third Premier League game in a row without a full win. The German coach has not had to wait longer for a win in his tenure in London.

Away with better numbers than at home

Not only Brighton are operating more successfully away from home than at home this season, but so are Chelsea. The reigning Champions League winners have dropped too many points at Stamford Bridge so far, after five of their eleven games ended in a draw. Away from home, on the other hand, they have lost two of their three games this season, but have also won seven. The 7-2-2 record away from home is undoubtedly in favour of the favourites from the capital. For Brighton against Chelsea, the odds on the Blues are absolutely justified.

After three games without a win (two draws, one defeat), a win at the AMEX Stadium on Tuesday is almost mandatory. Otherwise, the pressure from below is slowly but surely looming, as city rivals Arsenal (eight points behind, two games less) and Tottenham (ten points behind, four games less) are two teams within striking distance who want to challenge the Blues for the Champions League starting spot.

Lots of defensive lapses

Personnel-wise, Thomas Tuchel has been forced to make changes in recent weeks. On Tuesday at Brighton, he will have hardly any opportunities for rotation, especially in the defence. Edouard Mendy is away at the Africa Cup, so Kepa Arrizabalaga will have the chance to prove himself again, and so far he hasn’t made a mistake. With Andreas Christensen, Trevoh Chalobah, Ben Chilwell or Reece James, a strong defensive quartet is also missing.

At least on the offensive side, Tuchel can draw on a full complement and does not have to complain about any absences. Although neither Lukaku nor Werner have been the desired goal machines so far, the offensive will have a clear advantage over the Seagulls’ defence.

Predicted line-up of Chelsea:
Arrizabalaga – Alonso, Rüdiger, Thiago Silva, Azpilicueta – Ziyech, Kovacic, Kante, Pulisic – Havertz, Lukaku

Last matches played by Chelsea:

Premier League
01/15 2022 – Manchester City 1 – 0 Chelsea London

Carabao Cup
01/12 2022 – Tottenham 0 – 1 Chelsea London

FA Cup
01/08 2022 – Chelsea London 5 – 1 Chesterfield

Carabao Cup
01/05 2022 – Chelsea London 2 – 0 Tottenham

Premier League
01/02 2022 – Chelsea London 2 – 2 Liverpool FC

Brighton – Chelsea Direct comparison / H2H record

In the first eleven Premier League games between Brighton and Chelsea, betting on the Blues from London was a banker, after all, Chelsea won ten of those eleven games and only had to settle for a draw once. The two most recent matches in the English football top flight also resulted in a draw. The first leg of the current season took place just a few days ago. On 29 December, the Tuchel team conceded the equaliser in the 91st minute. Nevertheless, Chelsea have never lost to the Seagulls in the league – no other PL team have Chelsea played more games and are still unbeaten.

Brighton – Chelsea Tip

The home side from the south of England are playing an outstanding season so far and are particularly convincing in terms of play. The hosts will not lack confidence in view of their strong performances. Nevertheless, a tip on Brighton against Chelsea would be quite surprising for the Potter team. Chelsea will have to do without some key players defensively, but Tuchel can draw on a full range of attacking options.

After three games without a win, a certain pressure cannot be denied. The championship is no longer an issue, the top four must be fixed. Thanks to the very strong away record (seven wins in eleven games) and the more than clear direct comparison with the Seagulls, the prediction on the visitors’ victory at Brighton vs. Chelsea is alluded to with a stake of seven units.