Brighton want to make up for the 0-7 humiliation in the cup

Fabian Hürzeler has rarely been noticed for his restraint in his young coaching career. However, the 32-year-old coach of FC St. Pauli’s promotion to the Bundesliga 2 is known for his activity on the sidelines and his meticulousness in daily training, and not just in Hamburg. With his current club from the English south coast, the football teacher is now even aiming for the prestigious title in the FA Cup. At least Hürzeler recently stated in an interview that the hunger for trophies in the environment is very high.

Despite the home side’s recent positive run, it must be taken into account when predicting the outcome of the knockout game between Brighton and Nottingham that the “Tricky Trees” are having an outstanding season in the Premier League and can even dream of participating in the Champions League in 2025/26. The cup competition is therefore a nice bonus, but in the priority ranking of coach Nuno Espirito Santo, it is to be ranked below the league.

Nevertheless, this does not explain why such low odds are being offered for the seagulls to advance before the Brighton v Nottingham quarter-final. Especially considering that not too long ago – in early February, in fact – the “Garibaldi Reds” shot Brighton & Hove Albion out of the City Ground with 7:0.

Brighton – Statistics & current form

There is no doubt that Brighton & Hove Albion are one of the most in-form clubs in the English top flight. After the aforementioned 0-7 defeat in Nottingham on matchday 24 of the PL, the Seagulls started an impressive series that they are desperate to continue on Saturday evening.

Across all competitions, six wins in a row were followed by an equally impressive 2-2 draw at reigning champions Manchester City in the last match before the international break. In the league, the southerners are in seventh place, but are just two points behind fourth place. The top flight is therefore still well within reach for Fabian Hürzeler’s team. But first, the full focus is on the FA Cup, which the team, which finished 12th in the league last season, has never won in the club’s history. In general, the letterhead is completely orphaned in terms of titles, but according to Hürzeler, this only increases the desire for triumphs.

Can Brighton pull off the next big win?

The bottom line is that the blue and whites have had an outstanding season so far in the oldest cup competition in the world. After a commanding opening victory over second division side Norwich (4-0), two top teams, Chelsea FC (2-1) and Newcastle United (2-1 a.e.t.), were eliminated. If the home side manage to advance to the FA Cup semi-finals on Saturday evening, this would only result in odds of 1.42 and thus a probability of over 70% in the run-up to the Brighton v Nottingham encounter.

In my opinion, this assessment is a bit too one-sided in favor of BHA, because in addition to the arguments relating to Nottingham Forest’s great year in terms of results, it must be equally taken into account that the Seagulls have only won six of their 14 PL home games so far in 2020/21 and also have the fewest wins in the top seven of the Premier League. Due to the potential danger of extra time or a penalty shootout, I therefore see no value in the hosts, but rather shift my Brighton vs. Nottingham prediction towards the obviously underrated guests.

Expected line-up:
Verbruggen – Hinshelwood, Van Hecke, Webster, Estupiñán – Gilmour, Baleba – Rutter, Joao Pedro, Mitoma – Welbeck

Nottingham – Statistics & current form

Nottingham Forest Football Club is and remains the most positive surprise of the current PL season. While the “Tricky Trees” were almost relegated to the Championship in 2023/24, there are currently many indications that Portuguese coach Nuno Espirito Santo is leading his team into the top flight suddenly and without warning. The team currently sits in third place with a six-point lead over fifth place and has only conceded seven defeats over the entire season.

Nottingham doesn’t need many chances to score

In recent weeks, however, the “Garibaldi Reds” have had to pay tribute to the immense pace. Especially away from home, there have been a few surprises. The red-and-whites have lost three of their last four PL away matches and have conceded a whopping 13 goals. Nevertheless, Forest remains the third-best away team in the English top flight, behind only Liverpool and Arsenal, and even managed to celebrate the second-most successes in foreign stadiums.

For this reason alone, I believe that the odds between Brighton and Nottingham are wrongly offered between Brighton and Nottingham. On the three-way market, Winamax is offering a payout of 4.4 times the stake if the Espirito Santo team comes out on top after regular time.

A potential bet on the “Tricky Trees” scoring the first goal of the game is also exciting. On the one hand, this is supported by the fact that the City Ground team have only gone into half-time behind in the Premier League on five occasions and have been able to get the first shot in many league games. On the other hand, because Morgan Gibbs-White and Co. are extremely comfortable in the role of underdogs and could benefit from the fact that Brighton want to take the initiative at home. The former English champions have been characterized by strong transitions and brutal efficiency throughout the season anyway. If Nottingham take a 1-0 lead on Saturday, Betano offers the top odds at 2.60, which can also be combined with the Betano bonus.

Predicted line-up:
Sels – Williams, Murillo, Milenkovic, Aina– Dominguez, Anderson – Hudson-Odoi, Gibbs-White, Elanga – Awoniyi

Brighton – Nottingham Head to Head / H2H record

It has been almost exactly two months since the teams last faced each other in the league. It was a memorable clash that ended 7-0 to the NFFC. The ‘Tricky Trees’ were already 3-0 up at half-time. However, the New Zealand powerhouse Chris Wood, who scored three goals in that game, will be missing through injury at the weekend. Nevertheless, Nottingham can look back on a decent record against the Seagulls. They have only lost two of the last six meetings in the last three PL years. Thanks to nine goals in 180 minutes, the PL third seems to have cracked the Hürzeler defensive formula.

Brighton vs. Nottingham tip

Both Brighton and Nottingham Forest can be extremely satisfied with the way the PL season has gone so far. The “Garibaldi Reds” in third place are logically even more satisfied than the team in seventh place from the south of the island. The FA Cup can be seen as a bonus competition for both teams, but it is still very important at the weekend after the international break. Because the topic of pressure only plays a minor role, it is not entirely comprehensible to me that the home side are being traded as clear favorites according to the odds distribution.

While the Hürzeler squad is in great shape, the guests from the East Midlands have always been able to cause upsets in the current season when playing as underdogs. Why not on Saturday evening at the Amex Stadium? Between Brighton and Nottingham, the tip on the progress of the “Tricky Trees” offers remarkable value.