The clash of the table neighbours
A match on matchday 36 could hardly be more evenly matched. Both Brentford and Southampton have 40 points in their accounts. However, while Brentford have had a great April, Southampton have stumbled and now face the prospect of relegation in the light of Everton’s recent strong performances. Both are currently eight points clear of first place in the table. With two games to go, however, this position can still be changed significantly.
With all the balance in the standings, the current moods couldn’t be much more different. While Brentford have been playing a remarkable round as promoted teams for months, Southampton are running behind their own expectations.
Although the bookmakers see the home side slightly ahead in the clash between Brentford and Southampton based on the betting odds, there can be no talk of a clear favourite in this encounter. Even though both teams have not yet secured their place in the relegation zone, they are in a relatively safe position with a current eight-point lead over the first relegation place.
Brentford – Statistics & current form
Even though the last encounter was more than ten years ago, Brentford never liked playing against the Saints in front of their home crowd in the past. None of the last five home games Brentford could win against Southampton. Thomas Frank’s men will also have fond memories of the first leg. On that occasion they lost 4:1.
Will the white waistcoat stand again?
If the Bees can get through another 90 minutes with a clean sheet against Southampton next weekend, they could become only the fourth team after Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool to go four consecutive home games without conceding a goal. The whole truth, however, is that the Bees have already suffered eight defeats at their own Brentford Community Stadium, second only to Watford and Norwich.
What is good on one side of the field is currently a problem for the Bees on the other. Brentford have now gone two games in a row without scoring a goal of their own – the club’s longest run since April 2019. In the match between Brentford and Southampton, however, the odds point to a high-scoring game. First up in the Bees’ ranks when it comes to scoring goals is Ivan Toney. With twelve goals this season, he is the best scorer for a promoted side since DJ Campbell in 2011 for Blackpool. He scored 13 goals then.
In terms of personnel, there is not much to change for coach Thomas Frank, who has almost the entire promotion team on the pitch in almost every game. Brentford are having a remarkable season and the transfer of Eriksen in the winter has been a real boost.
Predicted line-up of Brentford:
Raya – Ghoddos, Rasmussen, Jansson, Sörensen, Henry – Jensen, Janelt, Eriksen – Toney, Mbeumo
Last matches played by Brentford:
Premier League
03/05/2022 – Manchester United 3 – 0 Brentford
23/04/2022 – Brentford 0 – 0 Tottenham
16/04/2022 – Watford 1 – 2 Brentford
10/04/2022 – Brentford 2 – 0 West Ham
02/04/2022 – Chelsea FC 1 – 4 Brentford
Southampton – Statistics & current form
Southampton could now make it two wins in a season against the Bees for the first time since the 1954/55 season with a win in the second leg against Brentford, following their 4-1 victory in the first leg. A good omen for this is that the Saints have won their last two games in London 3-2 against Tottenham and West Ham respectively. The last time the Saints won three games in a row in the capital was in 1985.
Leads don’t necessarily help
No other team scored fewer points after taking a lead than Southampton. The Saints have already let 26 points slip after taking the lead. A record this season. On top of that, they have only won one of their last nine league games. Six defeats in that period have seen the Saints drop significantly in the table. In the tie between Brentford and Southampton, the odds on the winner are very close, with a slight advantage for the home team. Still, a favourite cannot really be identified.
Lightweight James Ward-Prowse
The England international is on course to surpass his best ever season last year. He is just one scorer point short of equalling his 15 from last season. Ward-Prowse is currently on 14 points with nine goals and five assists. His standards in particular are feared throughout the country.
It is quite possible that coach Ralph Hasenhüttl will make a few changes after the sobering 1-2 defeat to Crystal Palace last weekend.
Predicted Southampton line-up:
Forster – Walker-Peters, Salisu, Bednarek, Livramento – Tella, Romeu, Ward-Prowse, Redmond – Long, Adams
Last matches played by Southampton:
Premier League
30/04/2022 – Southampton 1 – 2 Crystal Palace
24/04/2022 – Brighton 2 – 2 Southampton
22/04/2022 – Burnley 2 – 0 Southampton
16/04/2022 – Southampton 1 – 0 Arsenal FC
09/04/2022 – Southampton 0 – 6 Chelsea FC
Brentford – Southampton Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Brentford have failed to win their last five home games against Southampton. Brentford still have a score to settle from the first leg. Furthermore, the Bees are currently in a much better shape than the Saints. Therefore, the odds on Brentford vs. Southampton are slightly in favour of the home side.
Brentford – Southampton Tip
Brentford will be looking to get back to winning ways after their emphatic defeat at Manchester United earlier in the week. Before the defeat at Old Trafford, they managed to remain unbeaten for three games in a row, picking up a strong seven points.
Southampton, on the other hand, are currently on a three-game winless streak. The upcoming away game at Brentford Community Stadium will aim to end that streak and also remove the final relegation threats.
Due to recent performances, the home side are being given lower odds to bet on a win at Brentford vs Southampton. However, due to the fundamental balance in this encounter, we would advise against betting on the three-way market in the first place. We recommend betting on a high-scoring game between Brentford and Southampton, and thus bet 5 units that both teams will score.
