Will the world champions exacerbate the crisis at their arch-enemy?
One of the biggest rivalries in world soccer is the one between Brazil and Argentina. In a ranking of the most pronounced sporting enmities compiled by the American TV channel, the “Superclásico de las Américas” is even in second place. We don’t even need to discuss the explosive nature of the game on many levels. There’s plenty of prestige, honor and pride at stake – but also important points for both national teams, who have disappointed across the board of late.
The Brazilians in particular, coached by Fernando Diniz, have recently had enormous problems reconciling their results with their own expectations. After three winless qualifying games in a row, the record world champions are now in danger of slipping out of the top six in the current CONMEBOL zone table. The double motivation of Messi and Co. to put a new damper on their arch-rivals on the one hand and to defend their place in the sun on the other must definitely be taken into account with regard to the Brazil vs.
Although six South American teams are sure to secure a ticket to the 2026 World Cup in the USA, Canada and Mexico and qualification for nations such as Brazil and Argentina should be a mere formality, the stakes in the head-to-head duel are immense.
No team will want to fall behind. The risk is therefore likely to be adjusted, especially as in many recent encounters the first goal has been decisive for the outcome of the match. There are therefore some indications that the prediction of a low-scoring match between Brazil and Argentina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning German time will come true
Brazil – statistics & current form
The Brazilian national team is currently experiencing one of the weakest phases of this millennium. The “Selecao” failed to reach the quarter-finals of the 2022 World Cup against Croatia and their start to the World Cup qualifiers for the finals in three years’ time has also been a colossal failure.
After five match days, the record world champions have just seven meagre points to their name. After two victories in the first two games, there have been three matches in a row in which the “Canarinhos” have not been able to win three. The proud soccer nation even lost two of their most recent three matches. After an embarrassing 1-1 draw at home to Venezuela, they suffered a deserved 2-0 defeat in Uruguay in October. A few days ago, Brazil finally lost 2:1 in Colombia and once again revealed major deficits in virtually all parts of the team
Brazil only a shadow of its former self
Looking at the eight international matches in the 2023 calendar year, it is also clear that the men from the Sugarloaf Mountain are not spreading fear and terror at the moment. Among others, they lost to Senegal (2:4) in the summer and the World Cup runners-up Morocco in March. Coach Fernando Diniz’s team only managed to end one of the eight matches mentioned above without conceding a goal. And they only managed to score more than one goal in five of those matches. We have therefore deliberately refrained from playing the odds on a home win between Brazil and Argentina.
Although there is of course no lack of individual quality and top-class names, interim coach Fernando Diniz, who won the Copa Libertadores at club level with Fluminense a few weeks ago, has not yet managed to form a functioning collective from the existing potential of the individual players.
To make matters worse, perhaps the best attacking player at the moment, Vinicius Jr, was injured against Colombia and will not be available. Despite the home advantage, our preferred approach is to go for the double chance X2. Should even the prediction of an away win pay off in the “derby” Brazil vs. Argentina on Wednesday night, the home side would in all likelihood even drop out of the top six and would then – as of the end of 2023 – not take part in a World Cup finals for the first time…
Predicted Brazil line-up:
Alisson; Emerson, Marquinhos, Magalhaes, Lodi; Guimaraes, Andre, Luiz; Rodrygo, Martinelli, Raphinha
Argentina – Statistics & current form
As reigning world champions, the Argentinian national soccer team are currently enjoying traveling around the globe. Until recently, they did so as an unbeaten team after the World Cup finals, but this changed surprisingly a few days ago. In a heated home game against Uruguay, in which several players from both teams clashed, the Albiceleste lost 2:0. The light blue and whites have therefore set their sights high for the away game in Rio de Janeiro. After the first minor setback, Lionel Messi and Co. want to get back on the road to success straight away.
The fact that the 2023 calendar year has gone according to plan so far speaks in the Argentinians’ favor. With the exception of the aforementioned defeat against Uruguay, they have won the remaining eight international matches. Among other things, coach Lionel Scaloni’s charges also celebrated four wins on the first four qualifying match days and thus continue to lead the standings in the CONMEMBOL zone. If they win on the road on Wednesday night, the Argentinians could extend their lead over their arch-enemies from the Sugarloaf Mountain to eight (!) points.
Argentina will remain patient
The reigning world champions’ showpiece continues to be their strong defense, which has not conceded a goal in eight of nine international matches since the World Cup finals. The two goals conceded against Uruguay were their first since the World Cup final. Given that the Brazilian attack has not been brimming with confidence of late and has struggled to find solutions against compact defending opponents, we cannot rule out the possibility of the “Albiceleste” conceding another clean sheet.
The fact is that the winners of the last finals always have the offensive quality to score a goal. Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez form a sensational trio that doesn’t need many chances. Behind them, Messi’s bodyguard De Paul, Liverpool star MacAllister and Enzo Fernandez form an enormously strong midfield. The back four, including the goalkeeper, is perfectly attuned and will make life difficult for the Selecao. It is therefore quite possible that the teams will neutralize each other for a long time and that the first goal, if any, will only be scored late in the match.
Predicted Argentina line-up:
E Martinez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Tagliafico; De Paul, Mac Allister, Fernandez; Messi, L Martinez, Alvarez
Brazil – Argentina head-to-head / H2H result
This is the 110th time the rival soccer powers from South America have faced each other. With 43 wins, 40 defeats and 26 draws, the Brazilians are currently slightly ahead. In the recent past, however, the national teams have always been on an equal footing.
This is made clear, among other things, by the fact that in five of the last six meetings, a maximum of one goal was scored. The under 2.5 would even have gone through in all six cases. The last qualifying duel ended in a goalless draw almost exactly two years ago. This result on Tuesday night cannot be ruled out either
Brazil – Argentina betting tip
The last matchday of the World Cup qualifiers in South America in 2023 will see the eagerly awaited duel of hatred between Brazil and Argentina. The betting odds on the three-way market are pretty close, so a clear favorite cannot be named. The home advantage makes the odds swing slightly in the Selecao’s favor, although recent impressions point more towards the Albiceleste.
Argentina have won eight of their nine international matches this year and have also kept a clean sheet in all of their victories. Their only defeat came a few days ago in a 2-0 loss to Uruguay. Reparation is therefore the order of the day. However, the same applies to coach Fernando Diniz’s team, who have not won in qualifying three times in a row, have recently lost twice in a row and have not beaten the Argentinians in a direct duel at competitive level for some time.
Because it is ultimately too risky for us to place a bet on the two- or three-way market, we have decided to bet on a 0-0 half-time score in the Brazil v Argentina match. The top odds are 2.40 and can be played at Interwetten
