Who will snatch one of the coveted Champions League spots?

The fourth qualifying round will determine the final six participants in the top flight. Among others, Sporting Braga and Panathinaikos will meet. In advance, the roles seem to be quite clearly distributed, because while the Portuguese have been active on the international stage for years, the Greeks last played in a European competition in 2016. For this reason, the bookmakers’ betting odds between Braga and Panathinaikos Athens are also quite clearly in favor of a win for the home side.

Braga is quite rightly favored, as the Portuguese are already an established force in Europe. Since 2010, the SCB missed the international business only three times. After eleven years, the return to the top flight could now be realized and the chances are good. Especially in their own stadium, Artur Jorge’s team seems to be very difficult to beat. For this reason, the odds between Braga and Panathinaikos are quite clearly in favor of a win for the home team.

Panathinaikos is the clear underdog, especially in the first leg. Player-wise, the team of Ivan Jovanovic is clearly inferior and will thus have much less of the game. Away from home, the Greeks will try to create the best possible starting position for the second leg and will therefore stand very deep. However, PAO is much weaker away than with their own fans behind them, so anything other than a defeat in Portugal would be a bit of a surprise.

We recommend betting on a win for the host between Braga and Panathinaikos Athens with a handicap of -1. The Portuguese are very difficult to beat in their own stadium and also have their own fans behind them. In addition, the squad of the Greeks is qualitatively and also quantitatively significantly weaker (squad value: 123.70 vs. 57.75 million euros). The betting tip is not without risk, but brings a lot of value.

Braga – statistics & current form

Braga finished the past season in third place and thus secured their participation in the qualifying round of the Champions League. In the process, Artur Jorge’s team even somewhat surprisingly left the team of Sporting Lisbon behind.

Due to the UEFA ranking, Sporting Braga was already seeded for the third round and met TSC Backa Topola there. However, SCB had an easy game against the Serbian representative, winning 7:1 on aggregate. Therefore, the home side is also favored before the duel with Panathinaikos.

The start of the season

The “Liga Portugal” started already at the beginning of the month and for Sporting Braga with a failure. At the start of the new season, Artur Jorge’s team lost 1:2 against FC Famalicao. The team’s chances were particularly poor, as the SCB missed three great opportunities. On the second matchday, however, it was a different story, as the favorites were ice-cold in a 4-2 win over GD Chaves.

Offensive fireworks

With 75 goals in 34 league games, the home side had the second-best offense in Portugal’s top division. Artur Jorge’s team only failed to score five times. Only Benfica Lisbon, the reigning champions, found the back of the net more often.

In Sporting Braga’s attacking lineup, one player in particular stands out and that is Ricardo Horta. The 28-year-old attacking player scored 14 goals in the past season and also collected eight assists. This made the Portuguese international his team’s top scorer.

Unusually vulnerable

Last season, Braga conceded just 30 goals in 34 league games, providing one of the best defenses in the league. Goalkeeper Matheus went 16 without conceding a goal and was only surpassed in this category by Odysseas Vlachodimos. At the start of the new season, however, Artur Jorge’s back line seems to be shaky. In the first four competitive games, SCB conceded five goals and kept a clean sheet only once.

Predicted lineup of Braga:
Matheus – Gomez, Fonte, Niakate, Marin – Carvalho, Al Musrati, Horta, Zalazar, Bruma – Ruiz

Panathinaikos Athens – statistics & current form

Panathinaikos could qualify for the preliminary round of the Champions League as the reigning runners-up. However, Ivan Jovanovic’s team was still in first place on matchday 32 and thus only missed out on the title shortly before the end of the season.

For the Greeks, the qualifiers began as early as round two. In the duel with SC Dnipro-1, PAO prevailed 5:3 and were already struggling with slight problems. In the third round, however, the Green-Whites prevailed against the clear favorites from Marseille.

Delayed start

Panathinaikos’ league opener was postponed at short notice due to the match against Braga. Thus, Ivan Jovanovic’s team had a bit more time to prepare for the upcoming task. Nevertheless, the lack of rhythm could also be a disadvantage, because Braga could already “warm up” at the weekend. It therefore remains to be seen whether the cancellation of the first matchday will have a positive or negative effect.

Pinpricks

With only 47 goals in 36 league games, Panathinaikos provided a rather mediocre offense in the past season. Nevertheless, Ivan Jovanovic’s team only went eight times without scoring a goal of their own. Conversely, this also means that the visitors rarely scored more than one goal.

By far the most dangerous player in the Greek squad is Andraz Sporar. The 29-year-old center forward scored eleven goals and set up four others last season. The Slovenian attacker has already netted three times in the qualifying phase for the top flight, making him a real back-up in the new season as well.

The best defense in Greece

PAO conceded just 16 goals in 36 games during the 2022/2023 season, making them the best backline in the Greek Super League. Goalkeeper Alberto Brignoli kept a clean sheet 21 times and shared the golden glove with Giorgios Athanasiadis. On the international stage, however, Ivan Jovanovic’s defense seems to have problems, as Panathinaikos has already conceded five goals in four games.

Predicted lineup of Panathinaikos Athens:
Brignoli – Vagiannidis, Jedvaj, Magnusson, Juankar – Vilhena, Perez, Mancini, Duricic, Verbic – Sporar

Braga – Panathinaikos Athens Direct comparison / H2H balance

The direct comparison between the two teams is quickly summarized. SC Braga and Panathinaikos will meet for the first time in the history of the two clubs. From an analytical point of view, of course, this is a disadvantage, because in advance it is therefore difficult to assess how the different styles of play affect each other. Nevertheless, due to the experience and also the playing quality, we see the Portuguese as having a clear advantage. Therefore, between Braga and Panathinaikos Athens, our prediction also speaks for a victory for the home side.

Braga – Panathinaikos Athens tip

We play between Braga and Panathinaikos Athens the tip on a victory for the home side. Especially in the home match there is hardly anything against a success of the Portuguese. The home record is very positive, the two performances against TSC Backa Topola were convincing and, in addition, the individual quality is also higher than that of the opponent. Especially in the offense, SCB is so broadly staffed that they can add even towards the end of the game. It would therefore be a minor sensation if the Greeks were to take a point from Portugal.

Alternatively, we recommend odds of under 2.5 goals between Braga and Panathinaikos Athens. This is primarily due to the visiting team, which will be very deep from the start. The Greeks are clearly inferior in terms of play and will try to keep the zero for as long as possible. The plan is clear, because this duel will only be decided in the second leg. With his own fans behind him, Ivan Jovanovic reckons he has a much better chance of success.