Hot duel for direct PL promotion

Of course, the two second legs in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals during the week will be the focus of international football fans. But also in England’s second division, the Championship, there is an extremely interesting direct duel for the second direct promotion spot to the Premier League. On Tuesday evening, starting at 20:00, the Vitality Stadium may be the scene of a big celebration.

Should the home win bet pay off in the 33rd matchday replay between Bournemouth and Nottingham, the Cherries would be unstoppable from second place in the table ahead of next weekend’s final round. However, if the visitors from the East Midlands manage to take all three points, they would suddenly be in pole position for the vacant spot heading into the top flight.

High tension is therefore guaranteed. Especially against the background that there is a lot of pressure on the home side. Nottingham, on the other hand, have already achieved their own goal for the season by qualifying for the play-offs and can now take some risks with the former first division team. Because the form of the Garibaldi Reds is better to assess, it is a little surprising that lower odds are being offered on a home win in the landmark match between Bournemouth and Nottingham.

Bournemouth – Statistics & current form

Bournemouth were a fixture in the English Premier League between 2015 and 2020. After relegation in the 2019/20 season, they almost managed an immediate return the previous year, but in the play-offs, the Cherries already failed in the semi-finals at the later promoted Brentford. In order to achieve their goal in 2021/22, the Cherries had to make some major upgrades in the winter, even though they were in second place at the turn of the year, four points ahead of the first non-promotion place.

While things looked really good at first, the Cherries are now in danger of losing their comfortable starting position in the home stretch. Scott Parker’s side have won just two of their last seven league games and have shared points with their rivals in four of their last six matches, reducing their lead over third-placed Cherries to three points.

Direct promotion or playoffs for the Cherries?

To make matters worse for the Cherries, they go head-to-head with the in-form Tricky Trees on Tuesday night, who, given their superior goal difference, could even move past them in the standings if they win. In addition to the far from exhilarating form, the recent performances in front of the home crowd are also a cause for concern. Only one win in the last four home games, so we would be cautious about predicting a home win between Bournemouth and Nottingham.

The fact is that the pressure is clearly on the ambitious hosts. The second-placed team in the table is fighting against losing second place and against “failure” in the final spurt. Combined with an offensive line that has repeatedly underperformed and failed to score in three of the past six games, there are a number of arguments to refrain from betting on Parker’s team.

At least the ex-professional has hardly any personnel problems to complain about. Parker is likely to field the same starting eleven that won 3-0 at Blackburn at the weekend. Exactly one month after their last home win, the Cherries will be looking to improve on that at home and clinch direct promotion with a win.

Predicted Bournemouth line-up:
Travers; Smith, Phillips, Kelly, Zemura; Lerma, Cook; Christie, Billing, Anthony; Solanke

Last games played by Bournemouth:

Championship
04/05/2022 – Bournemouth 1 – 0 Nottingham Forest

30/04/2022 – Blackburn 0 – 3 Bournemouth

27/04/2022 – Swansea 3 – 3 Bournemouth

23/04/2022 – Bournemouth 1 – 1 Fulham

18/04/2022 – Coventry 0 – 3 Bournemouth

Nottingham – Statistics & current form

It is fair to say that Nottingham Forest are the hottest team in the second-tier Championship. While the Tricky Trees were still in eighth place after the 36th matchday and eight points behind a direct promotion spot, the fever curve has since pointed exclusively upwards.

The former Premier League side, who eliminated Premier League clubs Arsenal and Leicester in the FA Cup and only narrowly lost out to Liverpool (0-1) in the quarter-finals, have won nine of their last ten league games, putting Steve Cooper’s team in a position to secure promotion in their remaining two games.

Who is going to stop the Tricky Trees?

With the Garibaldi Reds currently sitting in third place, three points behind their upcoming opponents, but also boasting a goal difference of one goal, two wins at the Vitality Stadium and at Hull City this weekend could be enough to secure a return to the Premier League that was not thought possible in the interim. Ahead of the Bournemouth vs. Nottingham encounter, we wouldn’t rule out a prediction on the promotion of the former European Cup winners.

In fact, in our eyes, it’s very conceivable that the Cooper eleven will take home something countable on Tuesday night. Winners of four games in a row, going three without conceding a goal and generally not conceding more than one goal in 13 consecutive matches for two and a half months, definitely have the momentum and confidence on their side.

To follow up this impressive positive trend in recent weeks, odds on the away win are definitely recommended between Bournemouth and Nottingham. At least on the two-way market. Coach Cooper can also draw virtually from the full and will probably not change his victorious team from the weekend, which won 5:1 (!) against Swansea. By the way: Bournemouth had to settle for a 3-3 draw against their opponents from Wales a week ago.

Predicted Nottingham line-up:
Samba; Worrall, Cook, McKenna; Spence, Yates, Garner, Colback; Zinckernagel; Johnson, Surridge

Last Nottingham games:

Championship
04/05/2022 – Bournemouth 1 – 0 Nottingham Forest

30/04/2022 – Nottingham Forest 5 – 1 Swansea

27/04/2022 – Fulham 0 – 1 Nottingham Forest

23/04/2022 – Peterboro 0 – 1 Nottingham Forest

19/04/2022 – Nottingham Forest 4 – 0 West Bromwich Albion

Bournemouth – Nottingham Direct comparison / H2H record

13 competitive matches have been played between these two clubs in England’s second and third divisions. Five wins have been recorded for the Cherries. Five matches have ended in draws, while Nottingham have come out on top on three occasions. The first leg this season was a close affair in favour of Bournemouth (2-1).

It is also worth noting that in only one of the 13 meetings has the 3.5 goal mark been broken. So we don’t need to expect any offensive fireworks on Tuesday, also due to the enormous importance of this duel.

Bournemouth – Nottingham Tip

Originally, the Bournemouth vs Nottingham encounter should have been staged as part of the 33rd matchday in mid-February. At that time, the crucial nature of this clash would have been contained. More than two months later, however, it is down to the wire between these teams. The second direct promotion spot to the Premier League is at stake.

If the lower betting odds on a home win between Bournemouth and Nottingham prove to be true, the Cherries can no longer be denied a return to the top flight. However, if the Garibaldi Reds take all three points, they will suddenly find themselves in a better position ahead of the season finale next weekend. A draw would therefore be more likely to help the home side.

The visitors, on the other hand, have the advantage in terms of form, having won nine of their last ten league games, recently won four in a row and are extremely good defensively. The Parker team, on the other hand, must be able to cope with the pressure of losing second place. Recently they have had enormous problems living up to their own role as favourites.