Will Liverpool advance to the quarter-finals despite saving energy?

AFC Bournemouth fans had to wait until matchday ten for their first Premier League win of the season. On Saturday afternoon, the time had finally come. The sigh of relief from those in charge was probably also heard in Liverpool, some 177 kilometers away, after Saturday’s 2-1 win. Although the Cherries climbed above the line as a result of their success against their direct rivals from Burnley, they will of course still be treated as glaring underdogs in the round of 16 of the EFL Cup against the Reds from the Beatles city on Wednesday evening.

But the fact that between Bournemouth and Liverpool the tip on the away success after regular time will not be a no-brainer, has to do with the circumstances and “own laws” in the cup competition. Especially the English League Cup, which is often called the “Mickey Mouse Cup” in professional circles due to its much lower reputation compared to the FA Cup, always offers room for sensations. It is not for nothing that six of the remaining 16 teams are ranked below the Premier League.

Despite the expected fact that Jürgen Klopp will once again crank up the rotation machine in the fourth competitive match in ten days, there is much to suggest that LFC will make it into the last eight. Even an improved B eleven from the Reds should have qualitative advantages over the home side, who can go into this match completely liberated, but will certainly devote their priority to the fight to stay in the Premier League. It still makes sense to make an alternative prediction, away from the three-way market, between Bournemouth and Liverpool.

Bournemouth – statistics & current form

With 39 points from 38 games, AFC Bournemouth played a relatively great first division season in 2022/23. The logical consequence was a 15th-place finish and, in the end, relative safety in the league, which helped the Cherries to invest heavily in the summer. The management spent almost 130 million euros on the transfer market to strengthen the squad. Almost all of the top performers were retained. In addition, the Spaniard Andoni Iraola, an extremely sought-after coach, was hired to raise the elevator team to a new level.

So far, however, the red and black team has not been able to live up to the increased expectations. After ten match days, they have only managed to pick up six meager points. After three draws and six defeats in the first nine rounds of this season, the Spanish coach increasingly came under fire, but gave his men the right answer last Saturday. The 2-1 home win over Burnley, which came despite being 1-0 down and thanks to a goal in the final quarter of an hour, was the first Premier League treble of the season.

Cherries with problems everywhere you look

The many sporting construction sites remain, however. First and foremost, the far too harmless offense continues to cause headaches. A meager eight goals have been scored so far in the league. Only the winless last-place Sheffield United has scored even less often than the Cherries, where bets on over 2.5 goals would still have gone through in the past five Premier League matches. In total, seven out of ten matches involving AFC saw at least three goals, which is why we are also not averse to considering odds on more than two goals in regulation time in Liverpool’s clash against Bournemouth on Monday night.

Indeed, another main problem remains the far too fragile defense, which swallows an average of more than two goals per match when conceding a total of 21 goals. Only Chelsea, Burnley and West Ham were unable to score twice or more against Bournemouth in the first ten matchdays. However, since the Reds will certainly find solutions against the home side’s anything but stable defense with their concentrated offensive power, there is much to suggest that Klopp’s eleven will prevail against the relegation candidates after 90 minutes. However, the red and black team seems to be confident of at least scoring a goal of their own after their recent success.

Predicted lineup of Bournemouth:
No available information.

Liverpool – statistics & current form

Sovereignty and consistency are the new magic words at Liverpool Football Club. Whereas the Reds, for example, still had major problems controlling matches last season, and proved that accordingly by scoring goals, a certain degree of effectiveness and self-determination has returned to the Klopp eleven’s game in the still young 2023/24 season.

To back up the aforementioned aplomb with numbers, it’s worth taking a look at the results so far. Eleven of the 14 competitive matches have been won so far. Ten of these eleven victories came by at least a two-goal difference. In seven of the eleven cases, the Reds won despite conceding a goal. Only three times did the 2019 Champions League winners fail to score at least three goals of their own. In summary, it is certainly worth considering a prediction on the LFC victory including goals from both teams in the EFL Cup match Bournemouth vs. Liverpool again. A corresponding bet can be placed via the Bet365 app at an appealing maximum odds of 3.00.

Klopp takes all players on board

By the way, the fact that Jürgen Klopp will certainly make one or two personnel changes in the fourth competitive match within ten days and in the midst of the second English week in a row, does not change the pronounced role of the favorite, which can be seen in the Bournemouth vs. Liverpool odds on the three-way market. Recently, however, the German coach has been able to keep the workload of his charges in check.

In the Merseyside derby against Everton there was a 2-0 victory, in the Europa League against Toulouse a 5-1 and also the compulsory task at the weekend against Nottingham was successfully mastered without blemish with 3-0. The team is in good shape, the atmosphere is good, the key players are fit and in good form, and the substitutes are also playing their role to the full and delivering. Although the Reds have failed to reach the round of 16 in two of the last three years in this competition, we expect them to make it to the quarterfinals this time.

Predicted Liverpool lineup:
No available information.

Bournemouth – Liverpool Direct Comparison / H2H Record

The head-to-head could not be much clearer in the direction of Liverpool Football Club. In total, the clubs faced each other in 20 competitive matches, of which the Reds won 15. Three draws and just two wins for Bournemouth round out the tally.

Incidentally, the Cherries celebrated one of these two victories in last season’s home match (1-0), in which they were able to take revenge for a 9-0 defeat in the first leg of the 2022/23 season. On the second matchday of the current season, there was another duel, which LFC won 3:1 despite trailing 0:1. In two encounters in the League Cup, Liverpool also prevailed after 90 minutes. The relatively one-sided Bournemouth vs. Liverpool odds are therefore supported by the direct comparison.

Bournemouth – Liverpool bet

In the league, AFC Bournemouth and Liverpool FC are already separated by a whopping 17 points after ten matchdays. While the home side at least managed to climb to the saving shore at the weekend thanks to their first success, the Reds are in immediate touch with the top of the table. Although cup competitions have their own rules, the indisputable difference in quality is clearly in favor of Jürgen Klopp’s team.

This is underlined by a look at the Bournemouth vs Liverpool betting odds, which have no doubts that LFC will make it to the quarterfinals after regular time. However, since the 1.53 at the top on the visitors to win after 90 minutes is too low for us to see any acceptable value in it, it would make sense in our eyes to combine the away win with goals from both teams and thus collect triple the stake in the event of success.

But even more interesting and supposedly less risky is the bet between Bournemouth and Liverpool that at least three goals will be scored in the course of the match. Klopp will have his team in the second English week in a row and the priority of the host is rather on the Premier League. We therefore expect an open exchange and play the Over 2.5 at top odds of 1.65 at Betano with six units on.