Will a lack of match fitness be the sticking point for the Welsh side?
There is currently a big debate on the island about the term “match fitness”. On the one hand, the background is the numerous match cancellations due to infections, which sometimes lead to teams not being able to play or train for several days or even weeks. On the other hand, there are teams that have been spared quarantine measures and therefore still have to be on the pitch in a three-day rhythm.
What suits the respective clubs better, a higher degree of physical freshness or more match practice, will be shown once again on Thursday evening. Then it will come to exactly such a duel of two opposites. Bournemouth will welcome Cardiff and are favourites according to the odds. From a purely tabular point of view, this assessment is absolutely understandable, as the leaders play against a rival from the basement of the league table.
The constellation is also exciting due to the fact that the visitors from Wales have not been on the pitch since 11 December, while the home side won their away game against Queens Park Rangers on Monday evening and thus gained a lot of self-confidence. Not least because of this, a prediction on a home draw between Bournemouth and Cardiff seems to be the most logical option at the moment.
Bournemouth – Statistics & current form
Even before the start of the season, Bournemouth were considered one of the hottest candidates for promotion to the Premier League. Initially, the Cherries were able to live up to these high expectations. It took until matchday 16 before ex-professional Scott Parker’s side lost out in the league for the first time. Since that unexpected home defeat at the beginning of November against Preston North End, however, the worm has been in the wind.
Bournemouth won only two of their next eight matches. In the meantime, the promotion aspirants remained winless in six consecutive games. A series that only came to an end with the aforementioned away win at Queens Park Rangers a few days ago. With the new-found confidence and also the returned match luck, a bet on a home win on Thursday evening between Bournemouth and Cardiff definitely makes sense.
Does the end of the negative streak give the Cherries a boost?
The Cherries have a decent home record, winning six of their eleven games so far and scoring the third most goals in the league. Otherwise, the team’s greatest strength is certainly its consistency. No other team has conceded as few defeats as the former first division team (four).
With 20 goals conceded, the defence is also very respectable. If they hadn’t slipped into the negative maelstrom in the meantime, the Cherries would have an even bigger lead over their pursuers. They are currently one and four points clear of second and third place respectively, although Parker’s team has one game more to show for it. Nevertheless, the intermediate ranking is of course also a clear indication to bet on a success of the favourites. There are question marks behind Lloyd Kelly and Steve Cook. Otherwise, all men are on board.
Predicted Bournemouth line-up:
Travers; Stacey, Cahill, Kelly, Zemura; L. Cook, Lerma; Christie, Billing, Stanislas; Solanke
Last matches played by Bournemouth:
Championship
12/27 2021 – Queens Park Rangers 0 – 1 Bournemouth
12/18 2021 – Middlesboro 1 – 0 Bournemouth
12/11 2021 – Bournemouth 0 – 2 Blackburn
12/03 2021 – Fulham 1 – 1 Bournemouth
11/27 2021 – Bournemouth 2 – 2 Coventry
Cardiff – Statistics & current form
Now in their third year since relegation from the Premier League, Cardiff City are on the hunt for goals in the Championship. In 2019/20, the Welsh side finished fifth and only failed in the play-offs to win promotion again, while in the previous season, they finished eighth and did not even manage to reach the promotion relegation play-offs. In the current season, there is even the threat of a super-GAU.
In the current tableau, Steve Morison’s team is only in 21st place, just above the line. The former first division team has only managed to register 22 points. Only Peterborough United and Barnsley have lost more games than the Bluebirds, who have also only won six times
Cardiff out of action for almost three weeks
The aforementioned coach Morison, however, can only be partially blamed for this, after all, he only took the reins at the end of October and has only lost three of the past eight matches since then (three wins, two draws). Especially away from home, there is a clear upward trend. Eight points from the last four games away from home would actually be a reason to predict a point win for the relegation candidates on Thursday evening between Bournemouth and Cardiff. However, the starting position must be taken into account.
In fact, the 1927 FA Cup winners have only been able to hold one regular training session in the last ten days. Due to various infections and quarantine measures, Cardiff thus lack the necessary fitness and match practice.
The serious effects of an enforced break from playing and training could be seen, among other things, in Tuesday’s match between Watford and West Ham in the Premier League. The Hornets, who were also hard-pressed, lost that match 4-1 at home, so it is also plausible to look at the odds for a handicap home win (-1.5) or more goals after half-time in the Bournemouth vs Cardiff clash. In terms of personnel, it will also only be decided in the short term which players are at 100% and can play the difficult away game at the leaders.
Predicted Cardiff line-up:
Smithies; McGuinness, Flint, Nelson; Ng, Vaulks, Ralls, Giles; Colwill, Harris; Moore
Last Cardiff games:
Championship
12/11 2021 – Birmingham 2 – 2 Cardiff
12/04 2021 – Cardiff 2 – 3 Sheffield United
11/27 2021 – Luton 1 – 2 Cardiff
11/24 2021 – Cardiff 0 – 1 Hull
11/20 2021 – Preston 1 – 2 Cardiff
Bournemouth – Cardiff Direct Comparison / H2H Record
This pairing has been played 19 times so far in England’s top three professional leagues as well as in the League Cup. Bournemouth have had the upper hand on nine occasions. Cardiff have prevailed five times, while the remaining five encounters have ended in draws. The Cherries narrowly won the first leg 1-0 in Wales this season, with Philip Billing scoring the only goal of the day just after half-time.
Bournemouth – Cardiff Tip
Soccer Europe is looking eagerly to the island these days. While the leagues in Germany, Spain, Italy or France are still in the winter break until the new year, the ball continues to roll uninterruptedly in England. In the Championship, too, the action is really hotting up one day before New Year’s Eve.
One of the most interesting duels on Thursday evening is certainly Bournemouth vs Cardiff. According to the betting odds, however, the Cherries are the clear favourites, as they are currently at the top of the table and finally managed to end a six-match winless streak last Monday. It is quite possible that the success against QPR will give them new strength and self-confidence for the upcoming encounter.
The most important argument for a Cherries victory, however, is to be found on the visitors’ side. In the past ten days, the Welsh have only been able to train once. This will inevitably mean that as the game progresses, the advantages will swing even more starkly in the direction of the hosts. We would not be surprised to see Parker’s side win by more than a goal difference, or to see more goals scored in the second half in general.
