Will Kovac make a successful debut against tired Stuttgart?

Eight of the last nine BVB coaches have won their debut Bundesliga game. The only exception was Mike Tullberg, who failed to get past a 2-2 draw at home against Werder Bremen two weeks ago. On Saturday afternoon, Niko Kovac will now make his coaching debut for the black and yellow in the German top flight. If you believe the bookmakers’ assessments, then the bet on the home win between Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart is basically under a lucky star.

Where the betting providers take the optimism in connection with last year’s Champions League finalist, however, remains a mystery at first glance. Although interim coach Tullberg has recorded two wins and a draw from the last three encounters, the situation in the Ruhr area is still noticeably tense. In addition, the Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart prediction of the match outcome is of course subject to far more risks from a qualitative point of view than a bet on a BVB win against Heidenheim or Shakhtar Donetsk.

What could play into the hands of the home side is the fact that the guests from Bad Cannstatt are finishing their fourth consecutive week of matches and are literally on their last legs. Niko Kovac, however, will rely on the spark of the more than 80,000 spectators igniting his team and wrestling down the opponent with power.

Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart prognosis AI

The artificial intelligence sees BVB as the favorite at the weekend. While the bookmakers give Borussia a 50% chance of winning, “BETSiE” is even more confident. This is also underlined by the xG values of 1.84 to 1.25. Before the top game between Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart, the AI prediction tends towards a home win for the black and yellow. A coefficient of 1.98 is offered at LeoVegas for the Kovac team to win by three goals.

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

With an underwhelming record of eight wins, five draws and seven defeats, Borussia Dortmund continues to languish in the middle of the table. By comparison, clubs such as Werder Bremen, Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach have scored more points this season than BVB, which was actually considered a contender for the championship. Nevertheless, a look at the table shows that there is light at the end of the tunnel, because the fourth-placed team from Leipzig has just four more points than last June’s Champions League finalist.

BVB is hoping for its first Bundesliga home win in 2025

However, in order to achieve the goal for the season, a black-and-yellow rethink must take place. It is precisely for this process that disciplinary fanatic Niko Kovac was installed as the new coach. Together with his brother Robert, the former Bayern coach is supposed to whip the stars into shape and at least clean up the club, which has recently fallen out of favor with the public, from the inside in terms of sport.

Of course, it is not possible to say for sure what short-term tactical changes the former professional is aiming for before his debut match. It is all the more complicated for the opponent to prepare for the “new” BVB. Niko Kovac’s appointment, in conjunction with the momentum hoped for by the club’s management, is certainly one reason why Dortmund are relatively clearly favored against VfB Stuttgart according to the odds. A home win is currently offered at 1.98, which implies a 50% probability of occurring.

And that despite the fact that Dortmund have not won any of their last four home games (0-3-1), have conceded a total of 34 goals in the previous 20 match days, and have not kept a clean sheet in twelve competitive games across all competitions. At least Serhou Guirassy has been reliable of late. The summer signing scored in four consecutive matches and is of course a potential scorer against his former club. The 2.28 for at least one Guirassy goal on Saturday afternoon is profitable in my opinion.

Expected line-up for Dortmund:

VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form

Sebastian Hoeneß is actually known as a calm and rather introverted contemporary off the pitch. On Tuesday evening, however, the successful VfB coach was forced to give his emotions free rein. After the lackluster 1-0 home win in the quarterfinals of the DFB Cup against FC Augsburg, the nephew of Bayern icon Uli ran unceremoniously into his own fan section to celebrate advancing to the semi-finals with the supporters.

You could clearly see that a huge weight had been lifted from the shoulders of the likeable football teacher, who, according to rumors, was also being discussed in the BVB management as a future coach for black and yellow. After being knocked out of the Champions League and suffering two painful defeats in a row, it was a relief for Hoeneß and the entire club to still be in the running for the DFB Cup title.

VfB is on its last legs and wants to avoid an upset

Although Tuesday’s hard-fought victory certainly boosted their confidence, the impression of a tired Stuttgart team is definitely not misleading. Time and again, important players are sidelined due to illness or injury. In any case, there is a need for improvement in terms of quality across the squad. With increasing fatigue, lapses in concentration are becoming more common, which in turn lead to ball losses and, ultimately, to easy goals against.

Since the Swabians are playing their ninth match after the winter break on Saturday and are concluding the fourth (!) consecutive week of matches, exhaustion serves as an argument for betting on BVB rather than Stuttgart. For a start-to-finish victory for the hosts Borussia, you can get top odds of 3.00 on the Bet365 app, for example. Incidentally, that would mean the third Bundesliga failure in a row for the reigning runners-up, who have never actually experienced this under Sebastian Hoeneß.

Provisional line-up for VfB Stuttgart:

Dortmund – VfB Stuttgart head-to-head comparison

VfB Stuttgart have recently emerged as Borussia Dortmund’s nemesis. The Swabians have won all four of their most recent competitive duels against the black and yellow. Among other things, BVB lost the first leg in Bad Cannstatt 1-5. At home, however, Dortmund has managed to win five of the last seven Bundesliga games against VfB. Ultimately, however, the head-to-head is irrelevant after the change of coach at the Ruhr Valley club. The Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart odds are not significantly influenced by the direct comparison.

Dortmund – VfB Stuttgart betting tip

Only FC Bayern has more average possession per game than VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund. It will therefore be interesting to see, among other things, who takes the initiative at Signal-Iduna-Park. Will it be the black and yellows, who have been instilled with the basic virtues by their new coach Niko Kovac in a very short time, or the tired Stuttgart team, who, after reaching the semi-finals of the DFB Cup, also want to further distance a direct opponent in the Bundesliga in the fight for the international places? In any case, I do not expect a goal spectacle, but an encounter in which three, maximum four goals are scored.

In view of the briefly described circumstances, the advantages are actually more on the side of BVB. The Swabians have lost their last two Bundesliga games and also have to do without one or two important players. The hosts, on the other hand, will be extremely motivated going into this game and will want to outpower their exhausted opponents.

In addition to a betting tip on the home win, I suggest placing a bet on Guirassy as the scorer before the Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart game.

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