Record-breaking coach Sahin wants the 8th win in the 8th home game
There is currently a lot of unrest at Borussia Dortmund, both on and off the pitch. In the Bundesliga, the black and yellow are clearly lagging behind their own expectations, in the DFB Cup, BVB has already been eliminated, and there is also a lot of unrest behind the scenes. Coach Sahin is facing strong criticism, the contract negotiations with sports director Kehl have stalled, and the possible return of club legend Michael Zorc to the supervisory board is also evidence of the particular excitement in the club environment. In order to at least take a step in the right direction in terms of sport, it would be immensely important if a bet on the host between Dortmund and Freiburg paid off.
If we look at history, then the guests from the Breisgau region on Saturday are a tailor-made opponent for the 11th matchday in the Bundesliga. On the one hand, because the sports club lost 15 of the last 16 (!) Bundesliga guest appearances in Germany’s largest football stadium. On the other hand, against the background that the southern Germans have only a higher defeat rate against Bayern than against BVB. Nevertheless, the forecast for a home win seems to be far from a sure thing before the Dortmund-Freiburg duel.
Although Borussia have not shown any weakness at home under Nuri Sahin so far and compared to the phase before the international break, one or two players are on the verge of a comeback, the odds of 1.69 on the home side succeeding between Dortmund and Freiburg do not suggest any value.
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Dortmund vs. Freiburg AI prediction
The AI estimates that BVB has a whopping 62% chance of winning, which is why the odds offered by the bookmakers (1.69) are higher than the fair odds (1.59) and therefore perfectly playable. With calculated goals of 2.02 to 0.93, the AI prediction even goes for the BVB handicap triumph (-1 AHC) between Dortmund and Freiburg.
Dortmund – statistics & current form
Borussia Dortmund is currently playing the weakest Bundesliga season since Jürgen Klopp left in 2015. They have only 16 points after ten match days. In seventh place in the table, the black and yellows are already ten points behind FC Bayern and have lost sight of the top of the table, which means they have actually already been eliminated from the title race in Germany. In connection with the disappointing elimination in the second round of the cup in Wolfsburg, it quickly becomes clear why Nuri Sahin’s coaching performance is currently being viewed very critically.
Home field advantage determines the favorite’s odds at BVB.
Respect must be paid to BVB, however, especially for their performances in front of their own fans. Across all seasons, last year’s Champions League finalist has not been defeated in its own stadium in twelve (!) consecutive competitive matches. The last ten home games have all been won. As a coach, Nuri Sahin is the only one who has only experienced the feeling of a home win. The former professional is the first BVB coach ever to start a term with seven consecutive home wins.
This is one of the reasons why significantly lower odds are being offered for the home win over Freiburg on Saturday afternoon. The 1.69 top offer from Intertops (see the Intertops test report here) should be treated with caution, however, as the black and yellows have also lost four of their last six competitive games. Although some first-team players are returning from injury, such as Kobel, Ryerson and Anton, the list of absentees, including Süle, Can, Reyna, Duranville and Adeyemi, is still very long.
In particular, the absence of captain Emre Can due to a red card could prove problematic, because with him in the starting lineup, Dortmund has won 67% of its games this season, but only 25% without him. The BVB supporters are once again hoping for Serhou Guirassy to score, who will make his 80th Bundesliga appearance on Saturday and could score his 50th goal. In the current season, the former Stuttgart player has scored six times in eight games, which is why a prediction of a Guirassy goal between Dortmund and Freiburg could well make sense.
Freiburg – statistics & current form
The management at SC Freiburg can look back with satisfaction and satisfaction on the first ten matchdays in the German top flight. The smooth transition from Christian Streich to Julian Schuster can be considered a success. Fifth place with only three defeats and five wins already is a positive interim result for the Breisgau Brazilians, who would like to have a say in the allocation of European tickets again.
Freiburg’s defense is not easy to crack
The Black Forest team’s greatest asset is currently their solid defense, which, with only eleven goals conceded, is the fourth-best in the German top flight. Schuster’s team has kept a clean sheet a total of four times this Bundesliga season. Noah Atubolu has achieved a clean sheet in the SCF’s goal in three of the last four away games alone.
Although the U21 national team goalkeeper is at risk of missing out with back problems, it is definitely worth considering taking the betting odds for under 3.5 goals as a basis for configured bets between Dortmund and Freiburg. After all, a corresponding tip would not have worked in three of the ten aforementioned Bundesliga matches involving the sports club. No more than four goals were scored in any of Freiburg’s Bundesliga matches in 2024/25. The two goalless draws in the last two matchdays further underscore my assessment and even invite you to bet an even lower under-limit with the bwin voucher in November 2024 with reduced risk.
Dortmund – Freiburg Direct comparison / H2H record
In the introduction, SC Freiburg was already identified as BVB’s favorite opponent. 15 wins in the last 16 Bundesliga home games support this thesis, as does only a single Freiburg victory in the last 24 away games in Germany’s top division. Borussia has won 67% of all Bundesliga games against the sports club and has now even won five Bundesliga games in a row with 20 (!) goals scored. However, another shooting festival is not likely to be added on Saturday afternoon.
Dortmund – Freiburg Tip
One point currently separates Borussia Dortmund from SC Freiburg. While the Breisgauers are likely to be extremely satisfied with fifth place, BVB is once again on red alert after their defeat in Mainz before the international break. The black and yellows have lost four of their last six competitive games and have thus gambled away all chances of winning titles at the national level in two competitions. The fact that Sahin’s team are still favorites against SCF on Saturday afternoon is solely due to the fact that Dortmund are allowed to play at home and have won 15 of their last 16 Bundesliga home games against their upcoming opponents.
However, I am a little more cautious with regard to my main bet, arguing that the home side’s personnel situation is still not optimal and that the guests’ defense is strong, having kept a clean sheet in three of their last four Bundesliga away games.
Nevertheless, I have decided to place a bet on Guirassy as a goalscorer between Dortmund and Freiburg. A 2.20 top quote is offered for this, which is worth a stake of five units to me.
