Stevie G wants to avoid another setback
In many places, the English League Cup, also nicknamed the Carabao Cup or EFL Cup, is seen as nothing more than a chore. Especially the average Premier League teams, which enter the competition at an early stage and thus have to play some extra matches, usually attach more importance to the FA Cup.
Aston Villa is a notable exception. The Birmingham side have reached the final of the League Cup twice since 2010 and have reached at least the quarter-finals on two other occasions. Against this backdrop, the odds on an away win after regular time in the second-round clash between Bolton and Aston Villa promise quite appealing value at first glance.
This thesis is also underlined by the fact that the home side are now only represented in the third-tier League One and must be assessed as far weaker in terms of quality than Gerrard’s charges, who are desperate to boost their confidence after a rather weak start to the season in the Premier League. Even in the event of a major rotation of personnel, the advantages in our eyes still lie with the higher-ranked club. In the duel Boston vs. Aston Villa, a prediction on the favourite therefore seems to be without alternative.
Bolton – Statistics & current form
It’s been just over ten years since Bolton Wanderers were still playing in the Premier League, where they kept their place in mid-table for many seasons. As with many other clubs of this quality, however, relegation in 2011/12 led to a colossal collapse. First it was down to the third division, then in 2019/20 even to the fourth division for a season. Now in their second consecutive year, the Wanderers are back in League One, England’s third-highest division.
Ambitions, however, have dwindled to a minimum. The total market value of the squad is just ten million euros, which is not even among the top third-division clubs. By comparison, 15 players of the upcoming cup opponents Aston Villa alone have a higher market value. In total, the Premier League club has a market value of just under 500 million euros.
Bolton clearly outclassed in all respects
The inferred and not very debatable difference in quality is only one reason why we would refrain from betting on a surprise coup for the home side between Bolton and Aston Villa. A second reason relates to the Trotters’ mixed start to the season, which has seen them win just two of their first five league games, sit in seventh place with eight points on aggregate and suffer their first defeat at the weekend in a 2-0 loss to Sheffield Wednesday.
Apart from that, the EFL Cup has not been a good place for the Wanderers in recent years. In five of the past seven seasons, they were eliminated in the first round. The last time they went beyond the second round was in 2017/18. Only rarely have they been knocked out by first division teams. The focus is on the league and despite a good dose of motivation, it will probably not be enough to pose problems for the Villans on Tuesday night.
Predicted Bolton line-up:
Trafford; Johnston, Santos, Jones; Bradley, Morley, Williams, John; Dempsey; Kachunga, Bodvarsson
Last matches played by Bolton:
League One
20/08/2022 – Bolton 0 – 2 Sheffield Wednesday
17/08/2022 – Bolton 1 – 0 Morecambe
13/08/2022 – Port Vale 0 – 0 Bolton Carabao Cup
10/08/2022 – Bolton 5 – 1 Salford City
League One
06/08/2022 – Bolton 3 – 0 Wycombe
Aston Villa – Statistics & current form
Aston Villa are facing a landmark season. Because they spent a lot of money in the summer to strengthen the squad and get rid of their status as a grey mouse in the Premier League, coach Steven Gerrard, who has been in charge since November 2021 and has now had his team together for the first time in a complete preparation, is under pressure. Can the Villans make the leap from sporting insignificance to a team fighting for the European Cup?
A first interim conclusion after three match days is not particularly positive. Although the opening programme, with games against promoted Bournemouth, Everton and Crystal Palace, was relatively manageable, the Birmingham club has only managed to pick up three points. At Bournemouth and Crystal Palace they suffered heavy defeats and conceded a total of five goals. Only the Toffees could be defeated at home with 2:1.
Villa wants to use the EFL Cup to get into a flow
After what were actually promising Test match results, the start thus definitely falls into the “sobering” category. For this very reason, however, it will be the goal of Gerrard and Co. to gain self-confidence in the League Cup, optimise automatisms and simply get a better feeling. We therefore do not believe that Reds legend Stevie G, who incidentally won the title in this competition three times himself, will take Tuesday’s encounter lightly. Should the favourites put in a focused performance, there is nothing standing in the way of a prediction on the first division side between Bolton and Aston Villa.
In view of the busy next few weeks in England’s top flight, it can be assumed that the coach will start the rotation machine. However, due to the now very broad squad, the quality will not suffer greatly despite some planned changes.
On a positive note, the Villans have never failed to reach the second round of the EFL Cup in the last three seasons. In 2020, they even made it through to the final. So the club has definitely developed a certain soft spot for the lesser of the two cup competitions on the island, which has already been in the club’s own showcase five times.
Predicted line-up of Aston Villa:
Olsson; Young, Chambers, Mings, Augustinsson; Luiz, Nakamba, Ramsey; Buendia; Ings, Archer
Last matches played by Aston Villa:
Premier League
20/08/2022 – Crystal Palace 3 – 1 Aston Villa
13/08/2022 – Aston Villa 2 – 1 Everton
06/08/2022 – Bournemouth 2 – 0 Aston Villa
Club friendlies
30/07/2022 – Rennes 1 – 2 Aston Villa
23/07/2022 – Manchester United 2 – 2 Aston Villa
Bolton – Aston Villa Direct Comparison / H2H Record
The 140 meetings in England’s top division underline the classic gene between these traditional clubs. 14 matches in the second-tier Championship, six in the FA Cup and three in the EFL Cup round off the head-to-head comparison, which Aston Villa lead by a whisker with 64 wins compared to 59 defeats and 40 draws. The teams last met in the second division in 2018/19. Then too, the first and second legs both went 2-0 to the sky blue and reds from Birmingham.
Bolton – Aston Villa Tip
A number of Premier League clubs are now getting involved in the second round of the EFL Cup. League Cup finalists from the 2019/20 season, Aston Villa, also do the honours. After only one win from the first three league games, coach Steven Gerrard’s team is desperate to gain confidence and land a commanding success in the cup.
Although the coach has already announced that he will make a few changes to his team, we think there is a lot to be said for betting on an away win between Bolton and Aston Villa. The difference in quality is too great, and the home side from Bolton have disappointed too often at cup level in recent years.
We even think that the first division team will celebrate a relatively commanding success at the third division club and have therefore opted for the betting odds on the handicap win (-1) of the favourite between Bolton and Aston Villa.
