Next setback for Uruguay in the high altitude of La Paz?

As the 2021 calendar year draws to a close, the 14th matchday of the ongoing World Cup qualifiers will be played in South America. This will be dominated by the Clásico in the Argentine province of San Juan. From a dramatic point of view, however, there are even more exciting matches, as there are just two points between fourth and ninth place. Bolivia and Uruguay face each other on Tuesday evening to kick off Matchday 14.

A look at the available player material speaks a clear language, because the guests are not only one class, but several classes stronger. And yet betting odds of well over 2.00 are offered for Bolivia against Uruguay.

This is not a misjudgement on the part of the bookmakers, but South America fans know that the Bolivian capital of La Paz is over 3,500 metres above sea level and that the low air pressure at this altitude often causes immense problems for the visitors.

A look at the available player material speaks a clear language, because the guests are not only one class, but several classes stronger. And yet betting odds of well over 2.00 are offered for Bolivia against Uruguay.

This is not a misjudgement on the part of the bookmakers, but South America fans know that the Bolivian capital La Paz is over 3,500 metres above sea level and that the low air pressure at this altitude often causes the visitors immense problems.

Literally, the “air is thin” and the physical aspect plays a big role in this game. For the many European legionnaires, the altitude is extremely unfamiliar. It is not for nothing that Bolivia can always surprise in their home matches, and this is definitely within the realms of possibility on Tuesday as well.

Bolivia – Statistics & current form

The last time Bolivia stepped onto the big football stage was in 1994, when “La Verde” (The Greens) played the opening match at the World Cup in the USA against World Champions (losing 1-0). Since then, Bolivia has not qualified for a World Cup finals and, despite the big home advantage, that is unlikely to change in the near future.

Ten points in six home games

Games in La Paz are only possible due to a special regulation on the part of FIFA, as stadiums are generally not allowed to be above 3,000 metres. Accordingly, these games in La Paz are “unique”. Due to the tight schedule, the visiting teams never have enough time to adjust to the special conditions.

Many top teams therefore regularly stumble in La Paz and Bolivia can look back on a very good home record. This is also the case for the no-name team in the current qualifying campaign, as head coach Cesar Farias’ team has picked up ten of the twelve points collected so far in front of its home crowd. At least theoretically, there is still a chance of participating in the World Cup with only four points behind one of the coveted places.

With five matchdays to go, Bolivia have already almost set their 2018 World Cup qualifying result – when the Greens collected 14 points.

Home games marked by many goals

Because of the good home record, it is usually advisable to bet on the over 2.5 in Bolivia’s home games, as a look at the recent results shows that this bet has been the case in seven of the last nine matches. For Bolivia against Uruguay, odds around 2.10-2.15 are offered for this bet.

Another good option is to predict that former Bremen player Marcelo Moreno will score. The 34-year-old veteran has played an outstanding qualifying campaign so far and is the top scorer in South America with eight goals so far.

Predicted line-up of Bolivia:
Lampe – Villarroel, Sagredo, Jusino, Quinteros, Bejarano – Gonzales, Justiniano – Vaca – Marcelo Moreno, Arce

Last matches played by Bolivia:

World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifiers
11/12 2021 – Peru 3 – 0 Bolivia

Friendly match
11/06 2021 – El Salvador 0 – 1 Bolivia

World Cup – Qualifier CONMEBOL
10/14 2021 – Bolivia 4 – 0 Paraguay

10/10 2021 – Bolivia 1 – 0 Peru

10/08 2021 – Ecuador 3 – 0 Bolivia

Uruguay – Statistics & current form

The upcoming 2022 World Cup in Qatar is expected to be the last major career highlight not only for veterans Diego Godin, Fernando Muslera (both 35), Luis Suarez, Martin Caceres and Edinson Cavani (all 34), but also for head coach Oscar Tabarez. The 74-year-old has been in charge without interruption since March 2006, making him the longest-serving national coach in the world.

WM in danger

In the meantime, however, the Uruguayan federation is facing the worst-case scenario and qualification for the upcoming World Cup is hanging by a thread. The two-time world champions have last been represented three times in a row. As things stand, however, Uruguay would only be left with the role of TV spectator in Qatar.

In general, the qualifying campaign has been very mixed and the “Celeste” have only won four of the 13 matches played so far. Things have been absolutely disappointing since the October triple, which was certainly also due to the difficult programme. A goalless draw at home against Colombia was followed by away defeats against Argentina and Brazil.

Last weekend, the return match against Argentina was on the agenda, which also ended in defeat. This means that Uruguay have been without a full win for four games and have only scored one meagre goal in the process.

Destructive style of play

Tabarez is like a father to the stars and despite the poor results, the coaching guru is highly regarded by his players. Yet Oscar Tabarez is an old-school man and early counter-pressing does not feature in his training sessions.

Although Uruguay have had an excellent attack for many years, the basic design is relatively defensive. In the forward play, the individual quality should suffice with fast switching play. But Suarez & Co. are noticing their advancing age. The young guard that follows them has its problems with old-fashioned football. Accordingly, the current disappointing results are only partly surprising. Despite clear quality advantages, betting on Bolivia against Uruguay is not advisable.

Predicted line-up of Uruguay:
Muslera – Piquerez, Gimenez, Godin, Caceres – Torreira – Rodriguez, Vecino, Bentancur, Nandez – Suarez

Last matches played by Uruguay:

World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifiers
11/13 2021 – Uruguay 0 – 1 Argentina

10/15 2021 – Brazil 4 – 1 Uruguay

10/11 2021 – Argentina 3 – 0 Uruguay

10/08 2021 – Uruguay 0 – 0 Colombia

09/10 2021 – Uruguay 1 – 0 Ecuador

Bolivia – Uruguay Direct comparison / H2H balance

Exactly two-thirds of all previous duels between the two teams have been won by two-time world champions Uruguay. Bolivia have only been able to celebrate seven times, and unsurprisingly, the high-altitude footballers from La Paz have celebrated six of these seven victories at over 3,000 metres above sea level – i.e. in their home matches.

Two matches have already been played this year, with the favourites from Uruguay winning 2-0 at the Copa America in Brazil and Uruguay winning the first leg of the current qualifying campaign (early September) 4-2.

Bolivia – Uruguay Tip

The fight for the two fixed starting places in South America behind Brazil (already qualified) and Argentina (99% qualified) will be extremely exciting. Bolivia will probably not play a role in view of their away weakness, Uruguay will still have to tremble. One advantage for the Tabarez team could be that the two top teams are no longer waiting in the remaining programme.

But before the two-time world champions look to their rivals, they should do their own homework. After four games without a win (only one goal), the away game in La Paz is extremely inconvenient. For this reason, the prediction for Bolivia against Uruguay is on the home side. The outright home win is too risky, but betting on the draw-no-bet market still brings lucrative odds and is certainly a very good option for this match.