Will the altitude in La Paz be the world champion’s undoing?

After the Argentine national team had the opportunity to show its mettle as reigning world champions in a number of friendly matches in recent months, coach Lionel Scaloni’s team is now once again challenged at the level of competitive matches.

While the European teams are fighting for tickets to EURO 2024, the South American teams are already battling it out for spots in the 2026 World Cup in the USA, Mexico and Canada.

For the defending champions, qualifying in the CONMEBOL zone should be a mere formality, as usual. Nevertheless, every match starts at 0-0 and must therefore be completed first. This also applies to the traditionally complicated guest games in the Bolivian capital La Paz. At over 3,000 meters above sea level, many a favorite has lost its way. Nevertheless, it would be a huge surprise if the underdogs were to win the match between Bolivia and Argentina.

Especially in view of the fact that “La Verde” lost 1:5 (!) to Brazil at the start of qualifying and still lacked the necessary competitiveness for long stretches. In terms of quality, another big team awaits on Tuesday evening at 10:00 p.m. German time that should have every advantage on its side. Accordingly, before the match Bolivia against Argentina, the forecast of the bookmakers goes relatively clearly in the direction of Lionel Messi and Co.

Bolivia – statistics & current form

2024 marks the 30th anniversary of the Bolivian national team’s last World Cup appearance. In 1994, “La Verde” was last allowed to compete with the best selection teams at the World Cup finals in the USA. Strictly speaking, a successful qualification for the 2026 tournament in North America could close a circle for the South Americans, who have never made it past the preliminary round in their three previous participations.

However, the positive prospects for the world number 83 are limited. In the last qualifying phase in the CONMEBOL zone for the World Cup in Qatar, Los Tiahuanacos scored a meager 15 points from 18 games. In the end, the ninth-placed team was nine points short of a playoff spot. The 42 goals conceded were also representative of the continent’s weakest defense. Only Venezuela (14) conceded more than the Bolivians (eleven).

When Bolivia surprises, it’s at home…

One factor that definitely should not be underestimated is the home games, which take place in the capital city of La Paz at over 3000 meters above sea level. The extremely thin air causes problems for the majority of the professionals in many ways right away. Strength decreases more quickly, oxygen intake becomes more difficult and the strain is also much higher than in “normal” stadiums. It’s not for nothing that “La Verde” scored 13 of the aforementioned 15 points at home and conceded only a third of all goals against in front of their own fans. The goal difference after nine matches was even positive at 17:14.

Nevertheless, we are far from expecting a surprise coup between Bolivia and Argentina. The team of Argentine coach Gustavo Costas has simply been too weak in the recent past. La Verde has lost a whopping ten of its last twelve international matches. Only one victory has been recorded in this period. The sad low point was the 1:5 loss to Brazil on the first matchday of the South American qualifiers a few days ago, in which the Bolivians were shown up by every trick in the book.

Predicted Bolivia lineup:
Viscarra; Medina, Quinteros, Jusino, Suarez, Fernandez; Bejarano, Villamil, Ursino, Arrascaita; Moreno

Argentina – statistics & current form

The Argentine national team is still on cloud nine. The emotional World Cup triumph in December last year resonates with every meeting of the delegation and creates an outstanding atmosphere within the team as well as the environment. This associated lightness is sometimes one of the guarantees that makes the “Albiceleste” a maximally uncomfortable opponent.

After the World Cup in Qatar, coach Lionel Scaloni’s charges have played five international matches and won all five with a goal difference of 14:0. Their first competitive match since winning the title in the desert was also crowned with success. Against the strong Ecuadorians, Argentina won 1-0 after 90 intense minutes. The scorer was once again superstar Lionel Messi, who converted a direct free kick in the final quarter of an hour.

Without Messi at the height of La Paz?

For the upcoming away match in La Paz, however, Coach Scaloni is flirting with sparing his captain and veteran. The reasons for this are complex. For one thing, Messi recently had to play many minutes for Inter Miami in the USA. On the other hand, the world footballer and World Cup MVP is one of those players who in the past could not cope at all with the altitude in La Paz.

The Argentine performance on April 1, 2009, when the now three-time World Cup champions with their megastars Messi, Mascherano, Tevez, di Maria or Zanetti went down 1:6 (!) at the Hernando Siles Stadium, remains unforgotten.

Regardless of whether Lionel Messi will be on the pitch from the start on Tuesday evening, we won’t go too far out on a limb with our prediction of an away win between Bolivia and Argentina. After all, Scaloni’s team has now won eleven matches in a row. In a review of the past 48 (!) international matches, only the World Cup preliminary round match against Saudi Arabia was lost. It’s hard to imagine that this impressive series will come to an abrupt and surprising end in La Paz.

Predicted lineup of Argentina:
Martinez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Tagliafico; De Paul, Fernandez, Mac Allister; Di Maria, Gonzalez, La. Martinez

Bolivia – Argentina Direct comparison / H2H balance

There have been a total of 41 meetings between these nations so far. Of course, the Argentines lead the direct comparison with 29 wins. However, all seven of Bolivia’s wins so far have come at home, including five in South American qualifying. The Argentines have won just two of their seven most recent matches in La Paz. In fact, only one of the last ten qualifying encounters between the two teams resulted in more than three goals. And that was in the aforementioned 6-1 thumping 14 years ago, which the people of Bolivia still remember fondly today. Lionel Messi didn’t…

Bolivia – Argentina Tip

In the past, the Argentines have surprisingly often struggled at the altitude of La Paz. This may also be partly responsible for the fact that between Bolivia and Argentina currently offered betting odds of 1.63 on the away win. Actually, one would have expected even lower odds, especially since the Scaloni eleven lost only one of the last 48 international matches, won eleven times in a row last and even conceded no goal after the World Cup triumph.

The Albiceleste now travel to Bolivia as reigning world champions and have a completely different self-image to complete this compulsory task against a host that is clearly inferior in terms of quality. That’s exactly why we don’t expect the favorite to show any weakness.

Because we do not expect the world champion to win by a landslide due to the circumstances mentioned above and the fact that Lionel Messi may be spared for the time being, we have decided to combine the tip on the away win with the under 4.5 in the duel Bolivia vs Argentina. In the top we get a 1.82 at Betano, which we play with seven units.