How will Red Star fare on the artificial turf in Norway?
29 of the 36 new participants in the reformed Champions League group stage have already been determined. The seven vacant starting places will be decided in the upcoming play-offs. Among others, Norway will host a clash between two national champions who are keen to compete against the best clubs in the world in the new eight-match preliminary round starting in mid-September. Ahead of Bodö/Glimt’s first leg against Red Star Belgrade, the bookmakers are even more likely to back the Scandinavians to advance
This assessment is surprising in that the visitors from the Serbian capital were only represented in the top flight last year and were at least competitive in a difficult group. However, the home side’s current strong form is obviously given more weight. Knudsen’s side have won all four of their European Cup matches and at national level everything points to a successful title defense. However, to justify the prediction of a home win between Bodö/Glimt and Red Star Belgrade, other factors must be taken into account
The fact is that the pressure will definitely be on the home side, because if they fail to win the first leg in front of their own fans on the artificial turf at the Aspmyra Stadium, which is unfamiliar to many of their opponents, the task at Marakana next week will of course be much tougher.
Another exciting question is whether the trend will be towards over- or under-goals? Basically, the Bodö/Glimt vs. Red Star Belgrade odds suggest a spectacular and high-scoring match
Bodö/Glimt – Statistics & current form
Until today, Fotballklubben Bodø/Glimt had never qualified for the group stage of the UEFA Champions League. Now on their third attempt, the three-time Norwegian champions will finally make it into the main draw. However, the “yellow horde” is by no means a blank slate at European level. In 2021/22, for example, the men from the north of the country reached the quarter-finals of the Conference League. In the past two years, they finished in the intermediate round of the third most important club competition on this continent
Bodö/Glimt are doomed to win at home
The foundations for success at international and national level are primarily laid at home. At UEFA level alone, Bodö/Glimt have only lost two of their last twelve matches at home. The artificial turf at the Aspmyra Stadium is still unfamiliar territory for many opponents and therefore difficult to play on.
Because coach Kjetil Knudsen’s team won both home games against Jagiellonia Bialystok (4:1) and Riga FS (4:0) in the course of the current qualifying campaign and are still unbeaten after nine home games in the Norwegian top flight (6-3-0), significantly lower odds are being offered on the hosts ahead of Bodö/Glimt’s play-off first leg against Red Star Belgrade. At Sunmaker, 1.74 can be played at the top for the Scandinavians’ success.
In addition to the almost exclusively positive aspects so far, however, it must also be noted that the Yellow and Blacks are currently without a number of key players. Nino Zugelj, Gaute Vetti, Syver Skeide, Brice Wembangomo and Omar Elabdellaoui are all missing through injury. Apart from that, several key players were sold for a profit in the summer. After strong results to date against weaker opponents, they now face an opponent of at least equal quality for the first time in many months. We therefore don’t see any value in the odds on Bodö/Glimt!
Predicted line-up of Bodö/Glimt:
Haikin; Sjovold, Moe, Gundersen, Bjorkan; Fet, Berg, Evjen; Hauge, Hogh, Mikkelsen
Red Star Belgrade – Statistics & current form
Red Star Belgrade are one of the few clubs in the Champions League qualifiers who are immediately seeded in the play-offs. The Serbian national champions have thus saved themselves the previous qualifying rounds and only have to jump over one hurdle to secure a ticket to the group stage of the top flight for the second time in a row. The experience of the previous year, when the Red & Whites failed to pick up any points in four games against top teams RB Leipzig and Manchester City, but always managed to score at least one goal, should help them in the upcoming play-offs
Red Star offense is always good for goals
Another positive factor in our Bodö/Glimt v Red Star prediction is the satisfactory start to the season at national level. 13 points came from the first five matches in the Serbian Super League. The only point loss came at home to Marakana. On the other hand, Crvena zvezda have won two away games and scored 8:1 goals. In general, the offensive output is absolutely impressive. They scored exactly four goals in four out of five games, and 18 in total
On Tuesday evening, coach Vladan Milojevic’s team could also benefit from the fact that the visitors can wait for transitional moments from a structured defense. The Norwegians must play to win, while Red Star would be very satisfied with a draw.
Furthermore, it should not be underestimated that Crvena zvezda’s squad is worth twice as much as the Norwegians’ line-up. The Serbs have plenty of individual quality, particularly in attack. The trio of Bruno Duarte, Peter Olayinka and Cherif Ndiyae alone account for ten of the aforementioned 18 goals in the league. The best supplier is the Korean In-beom Hwang, who was also on the radar of several clubs from the European top five leagues in the summer. In view of the in-form attacking lines of both teams, a bet on over 2.5 goals or goals from both teams is definitely worth considering.
Predicted line-up of Red Star Belgrade:
Ilic; Mimovic, Djiga, Spajic, Seol; Elsnik, Hwang; Milson, Ivanic, Olayinka; Duarte
Bodö/Glimt – Red Star Belgrade head-to-head / H2H record
The clubs have never faced each other in a competitive match. For the reigning Norwegian champions and league leaders, it is even the first meeting against a club from Serbia. Red Star Belgrade, meanwhile, have a positive 6-2-1 record against opponents from Norway. However, this has no relevance for the first leg of the play-off on Tuesday evening
Bodö/Glimt – Red Star Belgrade tip
Seven UEFA Champions League play-off first legs await us on Tuesday and Wednesday. For the most part, we can look forward to exciting constellations without any clear favorites. The clash between the Norwegian and Serbian champions also promises drama. It is all the more surprising in our eyes that betting odds of a maximum of 1.74 are offered on a home win between Bodö/Glimt and Red Star Belgrade. We definitely don’t see a 56% probability of success for the “yellow horde”.
Although we are aware of the impressive home strength of the Knutsen team, who have been able to bring various top-class teams to their knees on their home turf in recent years, there are good reasons to believe that the visitors are more likely to win. Crvena zvezda, for example, have nothing to hide from the Scandinavians in terms of quality. The in-form offense in particular is always good for goals
