Does Zagreb lay the foundation for advancing?
Crunchtime in Champions League qualifying – the last round on the way to the group stage of the most important European club competition has begun. An exciting duel without real favourites is taking place in the far north of Europe. The Norwegian champions FK Bodö/Glimt welcome the figurehead of Croatian club football Dinamo Zagreb.
That’s how the best bookmakers see it, too. For Bodö/Glimt against Dinamo Zagreb, the odds for both the home and away win are almost identical. This assessment is absolutely understandable, even if Zagreb has the far more valuable squad. Both teams have come through the qualifiers without any major problems so far and are currently in good shape in the league.
The dress rehearsal in the national leagues was successful for both teams last weekend. Bodö/Glimt got rid of their compulsory task in Sarpsborg with 4:1, while Dinamo Zagreb won the top match in Croatia in outstanding fashion against runners-up Hajduk Split with the same result.
So Norwegian as well as Croatian football fans can look forward to a highly exciting, close encounter next Tuesday. The likelihood that one of the teams will win by a landslide in the first leg is probably close to zero. The best analysis, odds and predictions for the upcoming match can be found in the article
Bodö/Glimt – Statistics & current form
The dream of the Champions League group stage of the “small Gallic village” Bodö from the Norwegian Nordland lives. To compete with the biggest clubs in Europe like Milan, Bayern Munich or Real Madrid would be one of the biggest successes in the club’s history for the small town of 56,000 inhabitants.
With a squad value of not even 17 million euros, they would be one of the biggest outsiders ever to advance to the group stage of Europe’s most important club competition. In other words, with the entire squad value of Bodö/Glimt, they could not even afford half a Haaland. But before that dream becomes reality, the Norwegians face one last tough hurdle in Zagreb. For Bodö/Glimt against Dinamo Zagreb, therefore, high odds for a home win can be found at the betting sites.
Home strength is trumps
The season started badly for Norway’s title holders. After ten matchdays they had only 16 points and were only in sixth place. Leaders Lilleström were already eleven points behind at that point. But just in time for the start of the Champions League qualifiers, the Norwegian champions of the last two years impressively regained their form. Thanks to a strong winning streak, they fought their way up to third place and are now within touching distance of the top of the table.
They also solved the tasks in the qualification for the top division with bravura. Above all, the most recent results from the home matches are worthy of note: Six wins in a row at home, with a goal difference of 32:1, is an incredible record.
The whole thing is put into perspective when you look at who Bodö have had to play against in this period. Neither in the qualification for the Champions League nor in the league was a top team a guest in this period. Nevertheless, 32 goals have to be scored first. But with the savvy and internationally experienced team from Zagreb, a completely different calibre and a real touchstone now awaits.
Bodo/Glimt particularly strong at home
But Bodö/Glimt also won all their home games in last year’s Conference League, and not exactly against European walk-ins. AS Roma, Celtic Glasgow and Alkmaar were defeated at home in Aspmyra. Star coach Mourinho can tell you a thing or two about what can happen when you underestimate the Norwegian underdogs at home. The eventual Conference League winners went down 6-1 in the group stage in Bodö.
Whether it will prove to be an advantage to play the first leg at home and not the second remains to be seen. The fact is that the Norwegians perform much worse away than at home. In the league, the only three defeats of the season so far have come away from home. And in the qualifying rounds for the top flight, too, there were two defeats and only one draw against opponents who were at most third-class in Europe.
A good starting position before the second leg in the witch’s cauldron in Zagreb is therefore all the more important. We are confident that the Norwegians, who are strong at home, will succeed. The forecast for Bodö/Glimt against Dinamo Zagreb is more towards a home win. Fet and Solbakken, who is being courted by Frankfurt, will be absent on Tuesday due to injury.
Predicted line-up of Bodö/Glimt:
Khaikin, Sampsted, Moe, Hoibraten, Wembangomo, Vetlesen, Hagen, Saltnes, Mvuka, Salvesen, Pellegrino
Last games of Bodö/Glimt:
Elite Series
12/08/2022 – Sarpsborg 08 1 – 4 Bodö/Glimt
Champions League Qualifier
09/08/2022 – Zalgiris Vilnius 1 – 1 Bodö/Glimt
Elite Series
06/08/2022 – Bodö/Glimt 7 – 0 Odds Ballklubb
Champions League Qualifier
03/08/2022 – Bodö/Glimt 5 – 0 Zalgiris Wilna
Elite Series
30/07/2022 – Aalesund 1 – 2 Bodö/Glimt
Dinamo Zagreb – Statistics & current form
Unlike their upcoming opponents, the figurehead of Croatian club football has qualified for the group stage of the top flight four times in the last ten years. However, in the last two years they failed to qualify against Tiraspol and Budapest. Teams that are roughly on a par with the upcoming opponents in terms of performance.
The last time they qualified for the group stage of the Champions League, they also met a Norwegian team in the decisive qualifying round. After a 1-1 draw at Rosenborg Trondheim in the first leg, they won 2-0 at home in the second leg. A good omen for the upcoming task against Bodö/Glimt?
Will Zagreb prevail in Bodö?
After two years of abstinence Zagreb wants to return to the Champions League. The foundation for this should be laid in the difficult away match. If a good result is achieved here, Zagreb have a good chance of making it into the group stage against the Norwegians, who are much weaker away from home. The current form curve gives reason for hope. In the league, they have won four of their five games so far, and there has also been a draw. And Dinamo Zagreb also mastered the first two rounds of the Champions League qualifiers with ease.
Nevertheless, the bookmakers do not show Zagreb as favourites away from home in the first leg. In last year’s Europa League, there were two wins in four games away from home, but the victory against the B team of West Ham United, who had already qualified, should not be overrated. Bodö is also extremely strong at home.
We can well imagine that Bodö/Glimt will win at home against Dinamo Zagreb, but that Zagreb can still turn the match around in the second leg. The Croatians undoubtedly have the better quality in their squad. Coach Cacic has no absentees to complain about for Tuesday.
Predicted line-up of Dinamo Zagreb:
Livakovic, Ljubicic, Peric, Lauritsen, Ristovski, Ivanusec, Ademi, Misic, Baturina, Orsic, Drmic
Last matches played by Dinamo Zagreb:
1st League
14/08/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 4 – 1 Hajduk Split
Champions League Qualifier
10/08/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 4 – 2 PFK Ludogorez Rasgrad
1st League
06/08/2022 – NK Varazdin 1 – 1 Dinamo Zagreb
Champions League Qualifier
03/08/2022 – PFK Ludogorez Razgrad 1 – 2 Dinamo Zagreb
1st League
30/07/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 4 – 1 NK Istra 1961
Bodö/Glimt – Dinamo Zagreb Direct comparison / H2H-balance
These teams are meeting for the first time. Therefore no H2H data is available. In general, Bodö/Glimt have never met a team from Croatia. Dinamo Zagreb have faced Norwegian teams seven times in their club history so far. The record is mixed, with two wins, four draws and one defeat.
Zagreb have never won in Norway, with both victories coming at home. Nevertheless, Zagreb must have been delighted with the draw. After all, in the three encounters against Norwegian teams in the Champions League qualifiers, the Croats have always come out on top.
Bodö/Glimt – Dinamo Zagreb Croatia Tip
For those who remember great European Cup nights by Norwegian teams, Rosenborg Trondheim probably comes to mind first. But in recent years there has been a changing of the guard in Norwegian football. After being promoted back to the Eliteserien in 2018, Bodö/Glimt secured the Norwegian title in the last two years.
Last season, Bodö/Glimt also made a splash in the Conference League, which receives less attention than the Champions League. Bodö even won all their home games against well-known opponents. Even the eventual winners of the Conference League, AS Roma, were twice outplayed in their own stadium, in the group stage and in the quarter-finals. Due to the Norwegians’ home strength, we tip Bodö/Glimt against Dinamo Zagreb as a draw-no-bet bet.
32:1 – that’s Bodö/Glimt’s goal difference in their last six competitive matches at home. A remarkable record for a team in professional football. Without wishing to belittle this performance, a real touchstone for the Norwegian champions has not been visited during this period. Such a test now awaits in the form of the internationally experienced team from Zagreb.
The Croatian champions can definitely be expected to score a goal of their own in Norway. Zagreb have scored in every away game so far this season. Zagreb also scored in every away game in last year’s Europa League season. The Norwegians also failed to keep a clean sheet in any home game in last year’s Conference League. A prediction for both sides to score in Bodö/Glimt against Dinamo Zagreb therefore seems promising.
