Who will land a big point in the basement of the table?

Some Bundesliga clubs have to send international players to the Asia/Africa Cup in January/February. While various clubs – in terms of the number and importance of the respective professionals – are less affected, VfL Bochum, for example, has to compensate for a severe loss. Takuma Asano, the team’s top scorer with five goals, is away with the Japanese national team and wants to win the Asian Championship in Qatar. On Sunday afternoon, it will become clear for the first time which players will step into the breach for the “Jaguar”, who was once discovered by Guido Buchwald.

Despite the absence of Takuma Asano, Bochum are favorites against Werder Bremen according to the odds. This assessment by the bookmakers is primarily due to the Ruhrpottler’s strength at home and the North Germans’ weakness away from home. If we look at the statistics and figures from the first 16 matchdays, it is quite understandable that coach Thomas Letsch’s team are given the better odds at the weekend. The 2.20 on the three-way market currently implies a 44 per cent probability of victory in favour of the hosts.

While Sunday’s first game in the German top flight is more about the fight to stay in the league, we look a little further up the table in the afternoon game between Stuttgart and Gladbach.

Bochum – statistics & current form

VfL Bochum have gained a lot of sympathy over the course of the season so far. While the men from the Ruhr were once again one of the hottest candidates for relegation to Bundesliga 2 in the run-up to this season, coach Thomas Letsch has once again managed to form a collective with a limited budget and limited individual quality that is approaching its maximum performance week after week. The typical virtues that have always been in demand in the bottom third of the table never need to be specifically demanded of the Bochum team. Commitment, willingness to run, determination and conviction are always there

Bochum aim for third BL home win in a row

Admittedly even more so at home than away. That becomes clear when you look at their record in their own stadium. The 3-1 defeat against Gladbach at the end of September was VfL’s only defeat at home to date. Although there have only been two wins in a total of seven attempts, these were in the two most recent games at the Ruhrstadion. Wolfsburg (3:1) and Union Berlin (3:0) were deservedly put in their place thanks to strong performances.

The 14th-placed team in the table, who are currently six points clear of the relegation places, have only lost one of their last ten home games this season, which is why we would prefer a bet based on the double chance 1X for Sunday’s game between Bochum and Werder Bremen.

Alternatively, a bet on the over 2.5 can also be considered. On the one hand, because Bochum have scored at least one goal in 13 (!) consecutive home matches in the Bundesliga, and on the other hand, because three or more goals have been scored in four of VfL’s last five home matches in the German top flight. In three of the last four league games before the winter break, the over 2.5 would also have gone through. On Sunday, odds of 1.65 are offered at Bet365 for a corresponding bet between Bochum and Werder Bremen. Incidentally, you have been able to place your bets with the popular bookmaker without betting tax for a year now.

Predicted Bochum line-up:

Werder Bremen – Statistics & current form

While VfL Bochum are without Takuma Asano, as initially announced, Bremen also have an international in their squad who has left for the Africa Cup. We are talking about Naby Keita, who moved to the Weser from Liverpool in the summer, but has not even come close to fulfilling expectations so far. Most of the time, the midfielder has been absent due to injury or injury. The absence of the former Leipzig player is therefore unlikely to change the statics of Werder’s game at all.

The loss of Marvin Ducksch, who will carry the Green-Whites on his shoulders again in 2023/24, would be much more serious. The new international has certainly set himself the goal for the new year of matching his 2023 numbers. Last year, Ducksch was directly involved in 23 goals for Bremen (16 goals, seven assists). That put him on a par with Julian Brandt and Leroy Sané, for example.

Anyone who wants to predict another Ducksch goal on Sunday between Bochum and Werder Bremen is probably not entirely on the wrong track. At Winamax, you can pick up a proud 2.85.

Bremen still waiting for their first win away from home

Not only Ducksch, who has scored just four of his twelve goals this season at opposing stadiums, but the entire Bremen team is struggling with a serious weakness away from home. In fact, Werner’s side have yet to land a single three-pointer in seven attempts away from home. Two draws contrast with five defeats. The Green-Whites therefore hold the red lantern in the separate away table and have also conceded an average of more than two goals per away game.

The former German champions have been extremely vulnerable, especially against teams from the bottom of the table. The two 2:4 defeats in Heidenheim and Darmstadt underline this impressively. Even against direct rivals Cologne or Mainz, bets on over 2.5 goals would have gone through in the games involving SVW. The statistical basis for a Bochum vs Werder Bremen prediction of three or more goals in the course of the match is therefore also absolutely given with regard to the visitors from the Weser.

Predicted Werder Bremen line-up:

Bochum – Werder Bremen Direct comparison / H2H result

Of the last 20 competitive matches between these clubs, VfL Bochum have won just one. Bremen also have a clear lead in the Bundesliga’s all-time history with 43 wins in 68 games (15 draws, ten defeats). However, nine of Bochum’s ten victories have come in their own stadium. However, the last of these was over 25 years ago. In the previous season, SV Werder won both games against VfL. On the Ruhr with 2:0, at home even with 3:0. This time, the odds speak a different language in the balanced duel between Bochum and Werder Bremen

Bochum – Werder Bremen betting tip

With 16 points each, VfL Bochum and SV Werder Bremen are direct neighbors in the table. Their lead over the relegation zone is six points and could be extended with a win on Sunday afternoon against a direct rival. The clash, which kicks off at 15:30 at the Ruhrstadion, is therefore very important for both teams.

Nevertheless, we believe the hosts have the advantage, having lost just one of their last ten home games in the Bundesliga and even going into the winter break with two home wins in a row. The fact that Werder have only won one of their last 15 away matches in the Bundesliga and have already suffered heavy defeats against numerous teams from the bottom third of the table also justifies the favoritism of the Letsch team, which is reflected in the betting odds on the three-way market between Bochum and Werder Bremen.

Because it is not possible to reliably estimate how the teams will come out of the winter break, we are switching to the goal market and tend to bet on over 2.5 goals in Sunday’s match between Bochum and Werder Bremen. Bochum recently scored three goals of their own against Wolfsburg and Union Berlin. Werder concede an average of two goals per away game, but undoubtedly have the quality to score themselves. Nothing stands in the way of a lively game.