Can the Iron confirm the incipient turnaround?

VfL Bochum picked up four points out of a possible six against 1. FC Union Berlin in the 2023/24 season. However, the two teams were worlds apart in the table. While the blue-and-whites only managed to stay in the Bundesliga on the final matchday, the team from Köpenick made it into the Champions League. Now, however, the team from the Ruhr region (14th) is three points ahead of the Iron League side (15th). Nevertheless, our betting tip for Bochum against Union Berlin leans towards a win for the capital team

In their first league game under new coach Nenad Bjelica, the Ironers were finally able to show their familiar face again and secured a 3-1 win against Gladbach. Union thus ended a ten-game winless streak in the Bundesliga (one draw, nine defeats), while Bochum suffered their first defeat in four consecutive league games (two wins, two draws).

All in all, this clash has also been clearly in the hands of Berlin, who have lost just one of their last seven competitive matches against VfL (four wins, two draws). The prediction for an away win for Bochum against Union Berlin is correspondingly consistent, although the Köpenickers have lost five Bundesliga away games in a row for the first time in their club’s history and have recently failed to score twice in a row.

Because the odds are impressive, we’re even going for the outright tip and sticking with the three-way system. Slightly less risky alternatives would be the double chance X2 with under 3.5 goals or tip 2 played as “Draw No Bet”.

Bochum – Statistics & current form

After narrowly avoiding relegation at the end of the 2022/23 season, when VfL Bochum climbed from 17th to 14th place with a home win against Bayer Leverkusen on matchday 34, the Blue & Whites’ main goal for the new season is once again to stay in the league.

The first goal is to go into the winter break with as few worries as possible. The team is currently four points clear of the first relegation spot. However, the footballers from the Ruhr region should not rest too much on their laurels with just 13 points from the first 14 league games

Only won one of the last seven games against Union Berlin

After a short period of strength, during which the Blue & Whites have remained unbeaten in four consecutive league games (two wins, two draws), there was another small setback last weekend. Thomas Letsch’s players were beaten 3-1 away at TSG Hoffenheim.

In total, the team from the city of Grönemeyer has just two wins to its name. It is therefore all the more surprising that Bochum have such even odds against Union Berlin, especially as VfL have only won one of their last seven competitive matches against the Köpenickers (two draws, four defeats)

Bochum have always scored in their last twelve Bundesliga home games

Overall, however, the home record of the team from the Ruhr region is impressive. Bochum have lost just one of their last nine home games in the top flight of German soccer (three wins, five draws).

Although the overall chance conversion rate could be much better and Letsch’s side have only scored 15 Bundesliga goals in 2023/24 (the third-lowest in the league), there is one series that suggests that something could be gained against the Irons: Without exception, VfL have always scored at least one goal of their own in their last twelve Bundesliga home games. The last time that happened was between December 2002 and November 2003 (15 Bundesliga home games at the time).

Predicted Bochum line-up:

Union Berlin – Statistics & current form

Much has been written about the unprecedented slump of 1. FC Union Berlin, who only managed to pick up a single point out of a possible 30 between matchday 3 and 12 in the Bundesliga and dropped from the top of the table to last place.

Time to open a new chapter in Berlin-Köpenick, where a breath of fresh air has been blowing since Nenad Bjelica took over as coach. In the Champions League, the Irons bade farewell to their new coach with their heads held high in the two matches against Braga (1:1) and Real Madrid (2:3), while the Croatian’s Bundesliga debut promptly resulted in the first victory

Full concentration on the Bundesliga

The capital club beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3:1 to leap back above the bottom line. The aim now is to stay there until the end of the season. It is clear that the Irons, who are not only out of the DFB Cup but will also not be spending the winter in Europe in fourth place in the Champions League, can now devote their full concentration to the Bundesliga

The quality of the squad certainly allows the Köpenickers to move back into the top half of the table in the medium term. If Bochum win against Union Berlin on the road, it would be an important step against a potential direct rival in the relegation battle

No clean sheet in the last 13 Bundesliga games

The Berliners have lost their last five away Bundesliga games in a row, failing to score twice in a row away from home. However, in view of the change of manager, it is no longer so important what has happened in recent weeks, as the team with the Bundesliga’s weakest chance conversion rate (just 24%) showed against Gladbach that at least part of the negative streak was of a mental nature.

However, Nenad Bjelica still has to get to grips with one area: the defensive vulnerability that has crept into the 2023/24 season of the defensively so far so toxic capital city team. Even on his debut, the Iron remained without a clean sheet for the 13th league game in a row. The only other time FCU have been without a clean sheet was between March and August 2021.

Predicted line-up for Union Berlin:

Bochum – Union Berlin head-to-head comparison / H2H result

Head to head: 8 – 4 – 13

A total of 25 competitive matches have been played between the two teams so far, with 1. FC Union Berlin leading the direct comparison with 13 wins. The Ironmen have only lost one of their last seven competitive matches against VfL Bochum (four wins, two draws), but only managed one point out of a possible six against the blue and whites last season. The last time they visited the Ruhrstadion, the Köpenickers suffered a 2:1 defeat

Bochum – Union Berlin betting tip

Basically, the prediction of a not too high-scoring Bundesliga duel between Bochum and Union Berlin is very valid. After all, two of the three Bundesliga teams with the weakest odds in terms of converting big chances are facing each other here. Köpenick have just 24%, compared to 26% for VfL. It should not go unmentioned, however, that the team from the Ruhr area has scored every time in its last twelve Bundesliga home games in a row over the course of the season, while the Irons have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 13 league games

Against this background, the initially promising under bet seems a little too risky to us, which is why our choice falls on tip 2. Although this involves a fundamentally high risk, the ratio of risk, probability of occurrence and profit opportunity is the highest in our eyes, which is why the value is still right.