Will Freiburg crack the Bochum concrete?
With VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg facing each other this Saturday, two teams can be absolutely satisfied with their season so far. While the promoted team from the Ruhr region, in 13th place, has already managed to put three points between itself and the first relegation spot, the Sport-Club from Breisgau, currently third in the table, is still the most positive surprise in the top flight.
The fact that lower odds are being offered on the away three in the direct duel between Bochum and Freiburg this coming weekend comes as little surprise given the starting position in the table. Nevertheless, it must be noted that VfL have so far proved to be a very uncomfortable opponent at home and have only lost one of their six home games.
The 300th Bundesliga game for Christian Streich as coach of the SCF will therefore be an extremely challenging task. Especially, by the way, against the backdrop that the Black Forest side recently lost twice in a row and had to contend with slight negative vibes for the first time this season. Therefore, in the run-up to this encounter, it must be considered whether a prediction on the visitors’ treble between Bochum and Freiburg will actually pay off?
Bochum – Statistics & current form
Before the start of this season, many experts saw VfL Bochum as one of the hottest candidates for relegation. In the meantime, however, the Ruhr team has established a certain standing in the top flight of German football. 13 points and 13th place after twelve match days are not only a solid result for the promoted team, but at this point even the best in retrospect of the past five seasons in the Bundesliga.
Coach Thomas Reis’ team has been particularly convincing in their own stadium so far. Ten of the aforementioned 13 points have come at home. Three victories are compared to one draw and one defeat in five home games. Most recently, Eintracht Frankfurt and TSG Hoffenheim were both beaten 2-0 at home. Their only home defeat came in mid-September, when they lost 3-1 to Hertha Berlin.
Home and defensive strength as trumps
The main reason for the consistently good results at the Ruhrstadion is undoubtedly the defence. In fact, no team has conceded as few goals at home as the VfL (three). In four of the five home games mentioned above, the promoted team was able to keep its clean sheet. On average, only two goals were scored in the home matches involving VfL, which is why it is statistically quite justifiable to bet on the under 2.5 between Bochum and Freiburg.
However, despite all the euphoria that has developed in recent weeks, it should not be forgotten that the Reis team, with a total of only ten goals scored, also has one of the most harmless offensive lines in the Bundesliga. 80% of all goals were scored after the interval. This is likely to prove problematic for the home match against SCF, as the Breisgau side conceded only four goals in the second 45 minutes. Once again, there are signs of a low-scoring game on Saturday afternoon.
In terms of personnel, Coach Reis can almost draw from a full complement. Only Decarli, Osterhage and Zoller are missing due to injury. Blum and keeper Riemann had to take it easy during the week and had to miss one or two sessions, but they should be fit in time. Riemann’s absence would be particularly painful, as he is one of the protagonists of VfL’s very strong defence, which already has five clean sheets to its name – the best record in the Bundesliga.
Predicted line-up of Bochum:
Riemann – Stafylidis, Masovic, Lampropoulos, Danilo Soares – Losilla – Löwen, Rexhbecaj – Asano, Antwi-Adjei – Polter
Last matches played by Bochum:
1st Bundesliga
11/20 2021 – Bayer Leverkusen 1 – 0 Vfl Bochum
11/06 2021 – Vfl Bochum 2 – 0 Hoffenheim
10/31 2021 – Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 – 1 Vfl Bochum
DFB Cup
10/27 2021 – Vfl Bochum (5)2 – 2(4) Augsburg
1st Bundesliga
10/24 2021 – Vfl Bochum 2 – 0 Eintracht Frankfurt
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
For ten matchdays, SC Freiburg were unbeaten in the Bundesliga. Then came the almost expected defeat at FC Bayern, which was followed by the first home defeat against Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend. Although the Breisgau side did not put in a bad performance in either match, they still lacked the offensive effectiveness that had previously distinguished the Sport-Club.
In view of the very strong defence, it usually doesn’t take many goals to score point after point. With eleven goals conceded, the Black Forest side still has the most stable defence in the league. Away from home alone, goalkeeper Mark Flekken has been able to keep a clean sheet three times. In Bochum, too, it cannot be assumed that the third-placed team in the table will be confronted with insurmountable defensive tasks.
Is Freiburg back on the road to success?
On the one hand, the Sport-Club’s positive record against their upcoming opponents in the Bundesliga gives hope for a successful result on Saturday. Four of the seven away games in the Ruhr have been victorious. On the other hand, there is the remarkable record of three wins, two draws, one defeat and only five goals conceded away from home this season.
However, if you think it is too risky to make a prediction on an away win in Bochum vs. Freiburg in view of VfL’s home strength, we recommend betting on fewer than three goals in the course of the match. In fact, in the six away games of the Breisgauer, only a little more than two goals were scored on average. Incidentally, there were more than three goals to marvel at in only one of the six cases.
Nils Petersen, once the Black Forest’s life insurance, continues to fight his way back after his knee injury, but is unlikely to play a major role this year. Jonathan Schmid is also in rehabilitation training, but will definitely have to sit out the weekend. Otherwise, all men are on board, which is why coach Streich, who will be playing his 300th game as a Bundesliga coach, is even leaving the option open to switch back to a classic 4-4-2.
Predicted line-up of Freiburg:
Flekken – Kübler, Lienhart, N. Schlotterbeck, Günter – M. Eggestein, Höfler – Schade, Grifo – Jeong – Höler
Last matches played by Freiburg:
1st Bundesliga
11/21 2021 – SC Freiburg 0 – 2 Eintracht Frankfurt
Friendly club matches
11/11 2021 – Karlsruher SC 1 – 2 SC Freiburg
1st Bundesliga
11/06 2021 – Bayern Munich 2 – 1 SC Freiburg
10/30 2021 – SC Freiburg 3 – 1 Greuther Fürth
DFB Cup
10/26 2021 – Osnabrück (2)2 – 2(3) SC Freiburg
Bochum – Freiburg Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
It has been more than ten years since Bochum vs Freiburg in the Bundesliga. The last time the teams dueled in the 2nd division was in 2015/2016, incidentally with two victories for VfL Bochum at the time, but they did not prevent Freiburg’s promotion. In general, the pointer in the recent past has tended to point in the direction of the Ruhrpottler, who have won four of the last five home games against the SCF alone.
Bochum – Freiburg Tip
Two extremely likeable, authentic and surprisingly successful clubs face each other in a direct duel this weekend. Bochum receives Freiburg. According to the betting odds, the guests from Breisgau are the favourites, although several teams have recently felt the VfL’s home strength.
In five attempts in front of a home crowd, the Reis team has only conceded one goal and three (the best record in the top flight). In four of their five home games, the promoted side have not conceded a goal, so betting on a three-goal win for Sport-Club does not promise particularly attractive value, also in view of the odds.
It is far more interesting to focus on a bet on the under 2.5 between Bochum and Freiburg. On the one hand, the 13th in the table, as already mentioned, is extremely stable at home, but on the other hand, SCF also has the best defence in the entire Bundesliga. Both in VfL’s home games and in the Black Forest’s guest games so far, the average number of goals scored is only two.
Alternatively, you can also aim for the under 3.5 for any combined bets. With a little more courage to take risks, a bet on 0:0 at half-time is also conceivable. Because: Eight of the only ten Bochum goals were scored after the change of ends.
