Will VfL end their home drought?

VfL Bochum continue to fight for their existence, but have suffered four defeats in their last five league games (one win). This means that the blue-and-whites are still in a direct relegation spot, two points behind the relegation spot. However, if Bochum’s home game against Augsburg ends in a home win for the Ruhr Valley side, VfL could theoretically overtake 1. FC Heidenheim.

However, there is not much to be said for this, because the FCA is one of the teams of the hour despite their recent defeat against Bayern. The Fuggerstadt team is currently unbeaten in seven Bundesliga away games (four wins, three draws), which certainly influences our forecast for Bochum against Augsburg. After all, VfL have lost their last three Bundesliga home games in a row. The double chance X2 should therefore be playable with not too much risk.

Of course, the Ruhr area kickers are not without a chance in this home game. However, it will be very difficult for Bochum to score a goal against the Bavarian Swabians. In the last twelve Bundesliga games, the FCA has only conceded six goals – and here the three goals scored by Bayern are all already priced in. Meanwhile, Bochum, with only 28 goals scored, has the third-weakest attack in the league.

Our readers are probably already aware that man and machine do not always agree on our Bundesliga tips. Nevertheless, there are situations in which this is the case – and in the present example, we are in complete agreement with the supercomputer BETSiE. The AI calculates an expected goals value of 1.12 for VfL and 1.01 for FCA, and thus sees the potentially lowest-scoring Bundesliga game of match day 29 with an overall value of 2.13.

The bet on under 2.5 goals, which is available in the NEO.bet app at Bochum against Augsburg with odds of 1.80, also delivers – and at a decent rate. The odds suggest a probability of 55.5 percent. In Bochum against Augsburg, on the other hand, the AI forecast assumes a probability of 64.3 percent that there will be a maximum of two goals – an extremely positive expected value.

Bochum – Statistics & current form

The 2024/25 season has been a historically poor one for VfL Bochum. After 28 matchdays, they have only 20 points to their name – fewer than at this stage of the Bundesliga season before has never happened before in the club’s history. The second half of the season has also been sobering: they have only won one of the last five Bundesliga games (four defeats). But this was just the 3-2 win in Munich, the biggest surprise success of the current season so far.

But this outlier to the upside had no effect. Instead of a sense of a fresh start, there were three Bundesliga home defeats in a row – as many as previously in seven home games under Dieter Hecking overall. The last four-pack of home defeats dates back to spring 2010. The vulnerability in set-piece situations is particularly alarming: with 20 goals against after set-pieces, Bochum top this negative statistic in the league.

Bochum is simply too harmless in attack

Even in offense, a lot remains fragmented. The 28 goals scored this season attest to the fact that the team from the Ruhr area has the third-weakest Bundesliga offense. VfL clearly undercut its own expected goals value (34.1) by six goals. Only St. Pauli is further behind in this respect. In particular, the necessary vigilance is lacking at the beginning of matches: Bochum has already conceded nine goals in the opening 15 minutes – as many as upcoming opponents Augsburg.

Another structural problem remains in possession play: no team in the Bundesliga completes fewer passes (10,151) and has a weaker pass completion rate (74 percent). VfL may be combative, but they are often too imprecise and uninspired in their build-up play. It is all the more surprising that the kickers from the Grönemeyer city are even the slight favorite against the in-form Fuggerstadters.

Augsburg – Statistics & current form

FC Augsburg have become one of the most difficult opponents in the Bundesliga under Jess Thorup. After eleven consecutive unbeaten games, FCA recently suffered a 3-1 home defeat against Bayern Munich, but remain on course for the title. The Fuggerstadt-based club has put in a particularly convincing performance in the second half of the season, and with 44 points from 28 games, they are on course for one of their best Bundesliga seasons ever.

Augsburg have now gone seven games unbeaten away from home (four wins, three draws). If they manage to pick up a point against Bochum, it would equal the club record. The Fuggerstadt team scores mainly through compactness, efficiency and strong defensive work. In the seven away games, they conceded only four goals – only Leverkusen is currently more stable away from home.

The defensive stability is at the expense of the offense

Augsburg’s defense is outstanding. However, their offensive play is not particularly spectacular. The Expected Goals value of 27.0 is the lowest in the top flight of German football, as is the number of big chances (43). But the team acts calmly and efficiently. In addition, there is a good balance in the starting eleven rotation, with only a few personnel changes from game to game. The long unbeaten streak was therefore no coincidence.

However, one absence hits the Fuggerstadt team hard: Cedric Zesiger is missing through suspension. In the seven games in which he has played 90 minutes, FCA remained undefeated (four wins, three draws). Nevertheless, the Fuggerstadt team should be stable enough to score again against the form-weak VfL Bochum, against whom the Bavarian Swabians have not lost in three Bundesliga games in a row (one win, two draws).

Bochum – Augsburg Head to head / H2H record

Head to head: 4 – 3 – 3

There have only been ten competitive games between the two teams so far, with VfL Bochum just leading the head-to-head comparison with four wins. However, the last few duels have been in the hands of the Fuggerstadt team, who have not lost any of their last three Bundesliga games against the blue and whites (one win, two draws) and also won the first leg in Augsburg 1-0.

Bochum – Augsburg tip

In principle, our forecast for Bochum against Augsburg tends towards the Fuggerstadt team winning points. However, there is actually no need to take the associated risk and categorically rule out the home victory of the blue-whites. In view of the guests’ defensive compactness, a goal festival in the Ruhr area is not to be expected.

There was only one goal between the two teams in the first leg, when FCA came out on top at home. That’s why our top betting tip is on under-goals, which the defensively strong Fuggerstadt team has always gone through without exception in eight of their last ten competitive games.

We recommend the under 2.5 goals tip, for which Bochum against Augsburg betting odds of 1.80 are advertised, which we at NEO.bet with four units play on. Incidentally, new customers can flexibly choose between two different bonuses at this betting provider.