Will BVB win the Revierderby?

Borussia Dortmund did manage a small victory in the Champions League against Sporting Lisbon during the week. In the Bundesliga, however, the first game under new coach Niko Kovac was lost 1-2 at home to Stuttgart. Therefore, betting on the Black & Yellows to win at Bochum against Dortmund is now also subject to certain risks.

It’s true that the Borussians have only lost one of the last 13 regional derbies in the Bundesliga against VfL (seven wins, five draws). However, the blue-whites have earned 82 percent of their points in the 2024/25 season at home. It is therefore not completely out of the question that the forecast of a small breakthrough by the home side will come true at Bochum against Dortmund. Although Dieter Hecking’s team has only earned five out of a possible 18 points in the new year.

Borussia Dortmund, on the other hand, has slipped to eleventh place in the table because the black and yellows only managed four out of a possible 18 points in the calendar year 2025. No other team in the top flight of German football scored even worse than BVB after the winter break, who simply can’t get any rest due to the lap of honor in the Champions League playoffs and has to play one English week after another.

In principle, we believe the guests are capable of a good result in the Revierderby. However, a goal festival at Castroper Straße would come as a surprise, which is why we are betting on under 3.5 goals for Bochum against Dortmund at odds of 1.52.

Bochum vs. Dortmund forecast AI

It is not always possible to reconcile our human prediction with the supercomputer’s prediction. However, the AI BETSI is on our side in this local derby and confirms our betting recommendation. The AI calculates an expected goals value of 1.04 for VfB Bochum and 1.97 for Borussia Dortmund. Combined, the AI forecast for Bochum against Dortmund thus assumes 3.01 goals.

In the three-way system, the BETSiE, like us, does not find any value. In view of the xG value of the blue-and-whites of 1.04, a tip on the double chance X2 with goals on both sides would be conceivable, but at the same time this would also drive up the risk again, since results like 1:1 are also covered with our betting recommendation on under 3.5 goals.

Bochum – Statistics & current form

VfL Bochum are still fighting against relegation in the Bundesliga and, with only eleven points from 21 games, are in a worse position than ever before. A win against Borussia Dortmund would be urgently needed, but history does not bode well for the club.

Bochum have only won one of their last 13 Bundesliga duels with BVB and have not beaten the Black & Yellows at home since 2007. The last three Bundesliga home games against BVB have ended 1-1 each time – a result that would also be covered by our Bochum vs. Dortmund tip on under 3.5 goals.

Bochum with big problems in defense

What is very problematic is that Bochum has allowed the most vertical attacks by opposing teams in the league (47) and has already conceded six goals from them – no team is more vulnerable in this area. Overall, the 46 goals conceded are only topped by Kiel (54), which is why a purely defensive tactic is unlikely to lead the team from the Grönemeyer city to victory.

However, even scoring the first goal is no guarantee of points. Hecking’s team has already let twelve points slip after taking the lead, which is only surpassed by Leverkusen (13) and Wolfsburg (15). In the last meeting with Dortmund, Bochum squandered a 2-0 lead and lost 2-4. But: in the penultimate home game, the Ruhr area side beat RB Leipzig again after trailing 0-3 (final score: 3-3).

Expected line-up for Bochum:

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Borussia Dortmund are in the midst of a crisis and, with just 29 points from 21 games, are having their weakest Bundesliga season in ten years. The calendar year 2025 in particular has not gone well so far. The Westphalians have only managed to get four points out of the last six games. No team has scored worse after the winter break.

The defensive performance is particularly worrying. With 36 goals conceded from 21 games, BVB has conceded more goals than at any time since 2007/08. In the first game under Niko Kovač, there were also two goals against against VfB Stuttgart, before a brilliant 3-0 away win in the Champions League playoffs against Sporting Lisbon was scored during the week.

Is Niko Kovač now getting his legs up in Dortmund?

It is striking that Bochum and Dortmund, the two teams with the lowest mileage in the Bundesliga, are facing each other. While Bochum, at 113.1 kilometers per game, has the lowest mileage, BVB comes in at 114.3 kilometers – the second-lowest figure in the league. This also makes it interesting to use the odds for under-goals for Bochum against Dortmund, for which a short-term odds boost can possibly be found.

Although it cannot be ruled out that things will change for the better under Kovač, it should also be noted that the new coach has not yet been able to stop the indiscipline. Julian Ryerson, who will now be suspended, was the sixth Dortmund player to be sent off in the Bundesliga in 2024/25 against Stuttgart – a league-wide negative record.

Expected line-up for Dortmund:

Bochum – Dortmund Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 20 – 26 – 39

The Revierderby between VfL Bochum and Borussia Dortmund has taken place 85 times so far, with BVB leading the direct comparison by a clear margin with 39 wins. The Black & Yellows have not lost any of the last six duels with the Blues and Whites (four wins, two draws). In fact, VfL have only managed a single victory against Borussia in the last 13 Bundesliga meetings (five draws, seven defeats).

Bochum vs. Dortmund betting tip

We can only partially understand why the betting odds for Bochum against Dortmund are so clearly in favor of the guests with Paysafecard. Not much has come together for BVB in the new year yet, and the supposed breakthrough at Sporting Lisbon must first be confirmed. It won’t be easy with the away game either. The black-and-yellows have only managed to score eight out of a possible 30 points away from home so far and are in a disappointing 14th place in the away table.

It is quite possible that VfL, who are also fighting for survival, will initially aim to keep a clean sheet for as long as possible in order to ensure that uncertainty strikes again at underperforming BVB. With this in mind, the forecast for Bochum against Dortmund is a Revierderby at Castroper Straße that will not be too high in goals.