Who will gain some breathing space in the relegation battle?
Also because they have not lost their last six Bundesliga home games in a row, Arminia Bielefeld are two points clear of today’s visitors from Augsburg in 14th place in the table. Theoretically, however, the East Westphalians could even slip back below the bottom of the table in the event of a home defeat if Hertha win on Saturday. A continuation of the home series would be correspondingly important.
With FCA, however, a team is now visiting the Alm against which Arminia is still winless in seven games (two draws, five defeats). Nevertheless, in the run-up to the clash between Bielefeld and Augsburg, the odds are in favour of the home side. After all, the Fuggerstädter have only won one of their last 18 Bundesliga away games.
Of all the pairings that have been played at least three times in the Bundesliga, no duel has produced fewer goals on average than the match between Bielefeld and Augsburg. The previous three encounters produced a combined total of only three goals. Accordingly, there is a lot of value in betting on Bielefeld against Augsburg to score less than 2.5 goals.
Bielefeld – Statistics & current form
For a long time, it looked like Arminia Bielefeld’s second consecutive year in the Bundesliga would be their undoing. The East Westphalians found themselves in a direct relegation spot for the first time after matchday eight, which they were only able to leave eleven matchdays later.
In the meantime, however, the team of Frank Kramer, who celebrated his first anniversary as coach of the Blue team during the week, is once again in a non-relegation place and can dream of staying in the league.
Unbeaten for six home games in a row
The upswing was made possible in particular by the East Westphalians’ strong form at home. After losing three home games in a row, Arminia recently remained unbeaten in six consecutive games at the SchücoArena (two wins, four draws). The last time there was a longer series at home was in the Bundesliga in 2006/07 under Thomas von Heesen.
Overall, the Blue team has only lost two of its last nine games and has picked up 15 of a possible 27 points in this period. Accordingly, the Bielefelders are favourites and in good form going into the match.
The fourth-worst offence in the Bundesliga
Positive is also the second-half form of the Blues, who conceded a total of just ten goals in the second half of the season. Only Bochum and Wolfsburg (eight each) have been more compact defensively in the second half so far.
On the other hand, the offensive power of the East Westphalians remains a problem. The total of only 22 goals from 24 league games corresponds to the worst offensive value in the entire Bundesliga. The “expected goals” value in particular, which is 22.5 for Kramer’s eleven (also the lowest value in the Bundesliga), shows that it is not a matter of taking chances, but rather a clear lack of forward play…
Predicted line-up of Bielefeld:
Ortega – Andrade – Nilsson – Ramos – Brunner – Vasiliadis – Kunze – Schöpf – Wimmer – Okugawa – Serra
Last matches played by Bielefeld:
1st Bundesliga
02/26 2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 3 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld
02/19 2022 – Arminia Bielefeld 1 – 0 Union Berlin
02/13 2022 – Hoffenheim 2 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld
02/05 2022 – Arminia Bielefeld 1 – 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
01/21 2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 0 – 2 Arminia Bielefeld
Augsburg – Statistics & current form
Augsburg FC were promoted to the Bundesliga for the first time in the club’s history in the summer of 2011 and have managed to stay stubbornly in the top flight of German football ever since. The Fuggerstädter have often been in a relegation battle until the very end. So far, however, they have always managed to avoid relegation.
And that is exactly what they are aiming for now, although they still need more points in the remaining ten match days. At the moment, FCA are only just above the line in 15th place because of their better goal difference than Hertha, who are level on points.
Only one win in the last 18 Bundesliga away games
The 1-1 draw against Borussia Dortmund last Sunday was correspondingly important.
In this match, the Bavarian Swabians were able to avert their third defeat in a row and gain new self-confidence. All in all, however, they have only won one of their last nine league games (four draws, four defeats).
The Fuggerstädter’s away record in particular needs to improve. FCA have only picked up seven points from twelve away games. In fact, only one of the last 18 away games in the Bundesliga has been won (four draws, 13 defeats).
The third most goals conceded in the second half of the season
The fact that Markus Weinzierl’s team scored at least one goal of their own in all seven games of the second half of the season can be seen as positive. However, the Bavarian Swabians must work on their defensive vulnerability in particular.
After all, they have already conceded 15 goals in the second half of the season, in which only Hertha (19) and Gladbach (16) conceded more. In view of the fact that the East Westphalians’ offence is not all that dangerous, betting on a low-scoring match between Bielefeld and Augsburg is nevertheless a very good idea.
Predicted line-up of Augsburg:
Gikiewicz – Uduokhai – Gouweleeuw – Oxford – Pedersen – Gruezo – Caligiuri – Maier – Vargas – Hahn – Gregoritsch
Last matches played by Augsburg:
1st Bundesliga
02/27 2022 – Augsburg 1 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
02/19 2022 – Augsburg 1 – 2 SC Freiburg
02/12 2022 – Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 – 2 Augsburg
02/05 2022 – Augsburg 2 – 0 Union Berlin
Club friendlies
01/27 2022 – Augsburg 3 – 3 Jahn Regensburg
Bielefeld – Augsburg Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 0 – 2 – 5
The two teams have faced each other seven times in official matches so far and Arminia are still waiting for their first win against the Fuggerstädter. The first leg on 17 October ended in a 1-1 draw.
Bielefeld – Augsburg tip
The prediction for Bielefeld against Augsburg goes in the direction of the home side, who are unbeaten in six home games. After all, FCA is the second-weakest away team in the Bundesliga, having won only one of their last 18 away games. However, the Fuggerstädter are a fearful opponent for the Blues. After seven competitive games, Arminia are still waiting for their first victory.
With two low-scoring teams facing each other, whose low-possession and defensive styles could neutralise each other, betting on under 2.5 goals makes the most sense.
