Will Lewandowski get the red off his chest?
The Super Cup is a hot topic in Spain’s media at the moment. However, this is not necessarily due to the great anticipation of the tournament, which is now taking place for the fourth year in a row with four teams instead of two, but much more due to the questionable venue. As in 2019 and 2021, the champions, runners-up, cup winners and cup finalists will duel it out in Saudi Arabia – the new home of Cristiano Ronaldo.
Despite the shady contract that the Spanish league association has signed with the Saudis until 2024/25 and which will surely bring in plenty of dough, the participating teams will certainly do their utmost to lift the prestigious trophy.
Before the grand final on Sunday, the semi-finals will be played on Wednesday and Thursday. The second semi-final will be contested by Betis Sevilla and Barcelona. Far lower odds are offered for betting on the Catalans.
The leaders of the Spanish top flight last lifted the Super Cup title in 2019, but continue to lead the record books with a total of 13 overall victories. With coach Xavi also able to call on his goal-scorer Robert Lewandowski, who is suspended from the league, the prediction between Betis Sevilla and Barcelona is that the Blaugrana will be the favourites. However, the Andalusians should by no means be underestimated, as Pellegrino’s team has also played a very good season so far.
Betis Sevilla – Statistics & current form
In the last few years, Betis Sevilla has gradually turned into a real top team. A large part of this very positive development has coach Manuel Pellegrino, who has wielded the sceptre in southern Spain since the summer of 2020 and reached sixth and fifth place in his first two seasons. Now the aim is to go even higher. Qualifying for the Champions League has been declared internally as the maximum goal.
So far, the Béticos are doing quite well with this self-confident approach. After 16 match days, they are in fourth place, which would give them a direct ticket to the top flight in 2023/24. Eight victories are offset by four draws and four defeats. After just one win from six league games, the Andalusians returned to winning ways at the weekend in time for their Super Cup trip to the Middle East with a 2-1 victory at Rayo Vallecano.
Betis don’t concede many goals
The biggest strength of coach Pellegrino’s team, which also finished first in the Europa League group stage and is thus already assured of a place in the last 16, is undoubtedly its defence. 13 goals conceded in 16 matches is an impressive figure, which in a league comparison is only undercut by Barcelona and Villarreal.
On the other hand, the attack sometimes hangs in the air. 19 goals underline this thesis, as does the statistic that the Green-Whites have only managed to score more than two of their own goals in LaLiga on two occasions.
This, in turn, means that the matches involving the southern Spaniards are usually not overly rich in goals. In no single La Liga match were there more than four goals. Therefore, it is definitely plausible to additionally consider the odds on “Under 4.5” on Thursday evening between Betis Sevilla and Barcelona. Against the top clubs like Atletico Madrid (1:2) or Real Madrid (1:2), there have been narrow defeats in the course of the season so far. It is quite possible that this trend will also prove true in the Super Cup.
Predicted line-up of Betis Sevilla:
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Last matches of Betis Sevilla:
La Liga
08/01/2023 – Rayo Vallecano 1 – 2 Real Betis
Copa del Rey
05/01/2023 – Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1 – 4 Real Betis
La Liga
30/12/2022 – Real Betis 0 – 0 Athletic Bilbao
Friendly club matches
23/12/2022 – Real Betis 0 – 3 Atalanta Bergamo
17/12/2022 – Real Betis 1 – 1 Inter Milan
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
FC Barcelona are currently the benchmark in Spanish club football once again. Because the Catalans were able to win 1-0 at Atletico Madrid on Sunday in a hectic as well as contested away game and Real Madrid lost out at Villarreal the day before, the Xavi eleven’s lead in the tableau over their archrivals has already increased to three points.
As a result, the Blaugrana can devote their full attention to the Spanish Super Cup for the next four days. A competition that the world club has already won 13 times. In 2020, Barcelona reached the final for the last time, but lost it 3-2 after extra time against Athletic Bilbao. In the previous season, they had already reached the semi-finals against Real. That time, too, it went into extra time.
With Lewandowski to a 14th Super Cup triumph
By the way, if you want to bet on the co-favourites going out in extra time again for the third year in a row, you can find odds of 23.00 on Betis Sevilla vs Barcelona ahead of the second semi-final.
The fact that the La Liga leaders are quite heavily favoured is of course linked to their strong form at the moment. 19 points have been collected in the last seven league games. The only four defeats of the season were against FC Bayern (2x), Inter Milan or Real Madrid. We think it is unlikely that Betis Sevilla, of all teams, can join this elite circle, even though it is “only” a Super Cup semi-final.
One reason for this is that the Blue and Reds can rely on Robert Lewandowski in this competition. While the Pole is currently suspended in the league, he can play to his full potential in Saudi Arabia and will therefore definitely be in the starting eleven. The situation is different for Memphis Depay, who does not play a major role under Xavi anyway and is now being linked with a move to Atletico Madrid. There are no absences due to injury.
Predicted Barcelona line-up:
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Last matches of Barcelona:
La Liga
09/01/2023 – Atletico Madrid 0 – 1 FC Barcelona
Copa del Rey
05/01/2023 – CF Intercity 3 – 4 FC Barcelona
La Liga
31/12/2022 – FC Barcelona 1 – 1 Espanyol
09/11/2022 – Osasuna Pamplona 1 – 2 FC Barcelona
06/11/2022 – FC Barcelona 2 – 0 Almeria
Betis Sevilla – Barcelona Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
123 Matches the clubs have played on the national football stage so far. For only the third time, Betis Sevilla and Barcelona duel at a neutral venue on Thursday. At least in this category, the balance is absolutely even, with one win each for both teams. Otherwise, of course, the Catalans have a pretty clear lead.
This is also the case in the recent past, when the Blaugrana have won six of the last seven league games. The only Super Cup encounter to date dates back to 2005, with Barca winning the title 4-2 on aggregate after the first and second legs.
Betis Sevilla – Barcelona tip
The idea behind the Spanish Super Cup is definitely exciting. Four teams compete for the title played out in many other countries in a final between champions and cup winners. However, the timing of this small tournament and especially the venue hardly survive a moral and stress discussion.
Nevertheless, we look forward to three exciting matches in Saudi Arabia and a worthy winner. The second semi-final will be contested by Betis Sevilla and Barcelona on Thursday evening. The betting odds are clearly in favour of the Catalans, who are in brilliant form, won at Atletico Madrid on Sunday and can also rely on Robert Lewandowski again. The Pole will be suspended in the league, but will be eligible for the Super Cup.
Not least because of this, our preferred approach is to bet on the favourite to win between Betis Sevilla and Barcelona. However, to push the odds a little further, we combine the bet on the three-way market with the under 4.5 and can thus dust off a 1.90 at Bet365 in total.
