Who will concede the first defeat of the season?
In the Champions League, on most matchdays, even in the group stage, there are absolute top matches between two clubs with very big names. Benfica Lisbon against Paris Saint-Germain may not sound like it at first, but both teams are among the most in-form teams on the continent. That’s why it’s an absolute must-win game.
After two of six matchdays, it looks like Benfica and PSG will easily make it to the round of 16. Both teams are running in tandem so far and have six points each after two games. Juventus Torino and Maccabi Haifa are already all but eliminated and have no points in their accounts.
A win on Wednesday in the direct duel between the leaders would be a very big step towards the last 16. However, we would not be so quick to predict a win for the visitors in the match between Benfica Lisbon and PSG.
Whenever a team from the French Ligue 1 has been a guest at the Estadio da Luz in the Champions League, there has always been a home victory for the traditional Portuguese club. Whether against PSG, Lille, Lyon or Monaco, the Eagles always came away victorious. Therefore, you can certainly think about placing a bet on at least a point win for the hosts between Benfica Lisbon and PSG.
Benfica Lisbon – Statistics & current form
Roger Schmidt is in his first year in charge of the Eagles and it almost seems as if ers needs some support from home wherever he works. That was the case in China and most recently in Eindhoven and it is no different now in the Portuguese capital. With John Anthony Brooks and Julian Draxler, the coach has brought in two players with whom he can communicate in his mother tongue.
Undefeated in 14 competitive games
So far, things are going almost perfectly for the new coach in Lisbon. The Eagles have played 14 competitive games this season. They have 13 wins and only one draw to their name. This means that Benfica remain unbeaten under Roger Schmidt. In addition, the Portuguese side have won five of their last six home games in the Champions League group stage.
With this in mind, it may well make sense to play the odds on the hosts to win a point in the match between Benfica Lisbon and PSG. The Eagles lost their first and so far only point last weekend. Benfica were held to a goalless draw by Vitoria Guimaraes, but this again highlights the Portuguese side’s defensive prowess.
They have only conceded six goals in 14 games this season. In terms of personnel, Roger Schmidt is unlikely to make any major changes on Wednesday, despite the draw in Guimaraes. Julian Draxler, however, is definitely a candidate to start against his former club. The only players who will probably not be involved are the two centre-backs Lucas Verissimo and Joao Victor.
Predicted line-up of Benfica Lisbon:
Vlachodimos – Grimaldo, Otamendi, Silva, Bah – Fernandez, Florentino – Draxler, Rafa Silva, Neres – Ramos – Coach: Schmidt
Last matches played by Benfica Lisbon:
Liga Portugal
02/10/2022 – Vitoria de Guimaraes 0 – 0 Benfica
18/09/2022 – Benfica 5 – 0 Maritimo
Champions League Grp. H
15/09/2022 – Juventus FC 1 – 2 Benfica
Liga Portugal
10/09/2022 – Famalicao 0 – 1 Benfica
Champions League Grp. H
07/09/2022 – Benfica 2 – 0 Maccabi Haifa
PSG – Statistics & current form
When you coach such a star-studded ensemble as Paris Saint-Germain, the most important thing is to moderate properly between the top dogs. At the moment, however, Christophe Galtier seems to be having problems with this, as the dispute between Neymar and Kylian Mbappe over who is now the bigger superstar could well escalate. In Paris, the French world champion is the undisputed number one, despite Neymar or Lionel Messi.
Since more than six months without defeat
If Mbappe scores on Wednesday, he will become Paris Saint-Germain’s all-time leading scorer in the European Cup with 31 goals. For the fans, however, it is probably more important to maintain the good series in the new season. PSG are unbeaten in twelve games this year. Their last defeat was in Monaco in March. Therefore, we would be reluctant to predict a home win between Benfica Lisbon and PSG. All in all, it sounds more like a draw.
Last weekend, the Parisians struggled mightily to down OGC Nice at the Parc des Princes. Lionel Messi gave his team a 1-0 lead, but the visitors equalised immediately after the break. Kylian Mbappe had to play as a wild card and it was up to him to score the 2-1 winner in the 83rd minute.
The speedy attacker will certainly be back in the starting eleven on Wednesday, replacing his substitute Hugo Ekitike. Marco Verratti should also now slide back into the team after serving a yellow card in Ligue 1. Accordingly, there is much to suggest that Christophe Galtier will only have to do without defensive players Presnel Kimpembe and Timothee Pembele in Lisbon on Wednesday.
Prospective line-up of PSG:
Donnarumma – Ramos, Marquinhos, Mukiele – Bernat, Verratti, Ruiz, Hakimi – Messi, Mbappe, Neymar – Coach: Galtier
Last matches played by PSG:
Ligue 1
02/10/2022 – Paris Saint-Germain 2 – 1 Nice
19/09/2022 – Lyon 0 – 1 Paris Saint-Germain
Champions League Grp. H
15/09/2022 – Maccabi Haifa 1 – 3 Paris Saint-Germain
Ligue 1
10/09/2022 – Paris Saint-Germain 1 – 0 Brest
Champions League Grp. H
07/09/2022 – Paris Saint-Germain 2 – 1 Juventus FC
Benfica Lisbon – PSG Direct comparison / H2H record
In total, the teams of Benfica Lisbon and Paris Saint-Germain have played six clashes against each other. The direct comparison is in favour of the French with 3:2 victories. One duel ended in a draw. Overall, however, there is more to the record between the two teams than this close direct comparison, as the results were enough for the Portuguese to knock out PSG in the last 16 of the Europa League in both 2007 and 2011.
However, these duels predate the French side’s promotion to the financial and sporting elite of European football. The last two encounters took place in the 2013/14 season in the group stage of the top flight. In Paris, it was a clear 3:0 home victory. Benfica won the return leg in Lisbon 2-1 to keep a clean sheet against PSG at the Estadio da Luz with three home wins in three matches.
Benfica Lisbon – PSG betting tips
When Benfica Lisbon and Paris Saint-Germain play each other, two of the in-form teams in European football in recent weeks and months will meet. Both teams have yet to lose a single game this season. The bookmakers have the French as clear favourites, but the form of both teams sounds more like a draw.
However, the home Eagles have had very good experiences with PSG, as well as with Ligue 1 clubs in general, at the Estadio da Luz.
But overall we think it is very risky to bet on the outcome of this match. In general, betting on an over-goal or a Kylian Mbappe goal might not be a bad idea. However, we try to take a very small risk and have decided to play the betting odds on goals from both teams between Benfica Lisbon and PSG.
