Do the Encarnados finish the job at home?
Although Brugge already celebrated a remarkable 4-0 away win at FC Porto in the Champions League preliminary round. Nevertheless, there is little doubt that this clash is already over after Benfica Lisbon’s 2-0 away win in the first leg. Accordingly, there is no alternative to betting on the Encarnados progressing in the match between Benfica Lisbon and Brugge.
A quick glance at the history books shows how clearly the prediction for Benfica Lisbon against Bruges is leaning towards the Portuguese side. Before the 2022/23 season, there were 45 occasions when the home team lost the first leg of a knockout match by at least two goals. Only once did a team manage to turn around that home defeat in the second leg – in 2018/19 Manchester United achieved that feat away at Paris Saint-Germain.
Just because betting on the Encarnados is so alternative, the associated quotes turn out to be very manageable. Accordingly, an alternative tip is needed to get some value on the ticket. A very interesting bet is that a maximum of one team will score. On the one hand, the Belgians have been waiting for four Champions League games for another goal. On the other hand, they have not conceded a goal in their last three Champions League away games in a row.
In addition, the first leg was anything but a fireworks display of chances. Since the Encarnados can also live very well with a 0-0 draw, betting on a maximum of one team scoring covers most eventualities.
Benfica Lisbon – Statistics & current form
In their debut season under Roger Schmidt, Benfica Lisbon are doing excellently so far. The Encarnados are leading the Portuguese league with 62 points out of a possible 69 and are already eight points ahead of defending champions FC Porto and heading for their 38th league title.
In addition, the two-time overall winners of the Champions League (or the European Cup) already have at least one foot in the quarter-finals of the top flight after their 2-0 away win in Bruges. If the Águias (in German: die Adler) finish the job at home, they would reach the round of the best eight teams for the third time in a row.
Not yet a single home defeat in the 2022/23 season
Benfica’s home strength is one of the main advantages. In the Portuguese league, the capitals have picked up 34 of a possible 36 points at the Estádio da Luz, with 37 goals scored and just nine conceded in twelve games.
In addition, the Encarnados also remained unbeaten at home in the Champions League preliminary round, although they also faced heavyweights PSG (1:1) and Juventus Turin (4:3). Accordingly, the odds on Benfica Lisbon against Brugge are clearly in favour of Roger Schmidt’s side.
Only failed three times after winning the first leg
The fact that winning the first leg has usually been half the battle in the Águias’ long European history also speaks in favour of the Lisboners. Only in three of 31 cases have the Encarnados been eliminated after winning the first leg.
The capital also has the necessary scoring threat, which would be needed if things were to get exciting again. In the last twelve Champions League games in a row, Benfica have always scored at least one goal. Joao Mário has scored in his last four Champions League games in a row.
Last matches played by Benfica Lisbon:
Liga Portugal
04/03/2023 – Benfica 2 – 0 Famalicao
26/02/2023 – Vizela 0 – 2 Benfica
21/02/2023 – Benfica 3 – 1 Boavista
Champions League Final
16/02/2023 – Club Brugge 0 – 2 Benfica
Cup
10/02/2023 – Braga (5)1 – 1(4) Benfica
Brugge – Statistics & current form
Club Brugge celebrated the 18th national championship in the club’s history in the 2021/22 season, qualifying for the UEFA Champions League group stage for the tenth time overall.
For the first time ever, the Blauw-Zwarten (in German: die Blau-Schwarzen) have now even made it through the preliminary round of the top flight in one piece, for which the FCB was able to leave former finalists Leverkusen and Atlético Madrid behind. The Belgians collected eleven points out of a possible 18 in the group phase.
Won only two of their last 14 competitive matches
Lately, however, the FCB has been in a bad way, even in the Jupiler League, and had to change coaches at the end of the year. Not much has changed for the better since then. The Blue Guards have won only two of their last 14 matches (eight draws, four defeats).
They also suffered a crushing 3-0 away defeat at Oostende in the Jupiler League at the weekend, which has left Brugge 21 points behind leaders KRC Genk after 28 league games. Moreover, it is now likely to be the Belgians’ first appearance in the Champions League last 16 without success.
None scored in any of the last four Champions League matches
After strong performances in the previous round, the Bruges side have failed to score in any of their last four Champions League games, and this, along with the fact that the Belgians have kept a clean sheet in their last three Champions League away games, is fuelling our prediction of a maximum of one team scoring against Brugge.
Looking at the poor performance in the first leg, when not a single shot was fired at the Encarnados’ goal after a single shot on goal in the fifth minute of the match, the exit of Scott Parker’s eleven is now virtually unavoidable.
Last games of Bruges:
Jupiler Liga
04/03/2023 – KV Oostende 3 – 0 Club Brugge
26/02/2023 – Club Brugge 2 – 0 KAA Gent
19/02/2023 – Cercle Brugge 2 – 2 Club Brugge
Champions League Final
16/02/2023 – Club Brugge 0 – 2 Benfica
Jupiler Liga
11/02/2023 – Club Brugge 1 – 1 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Benfica Lisbon – Bruges Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 1 – 0 – 0
The first leg on 15 February 2023 was the first and only meeting between the two teams so far. Benfica Lisbon thus lead the direct comparison with a 2-0 away win. The Encarnados have also never lost a competitive match at home to a Belgian team (eight wins, two draws).
Benfica Lisbon – Bruges tip
With Benfica Lisbon against Bruges, the betting odds are swinging in all shapes and forms towards the home-strong Encarnados. Moreover, given that the Belgians have won just two of their last 14 competitive matches, it takes a lot of imagination to think it possible that the Portuguese side will suffer their first home defeat in a competitive match since May 2022 against the in-form Blue Guards, let alone lose out on a place in the quarter-finals.
It is very interesting to bet on Benfica Lisbon against Bruges that a maximum of one team will score. In the first leg, the Belgians only scored once in the fifth minute, before the Encarnados also did little for the game after taking the lead. Not a single shot on goal was recorded in the first leg after the 64th minute of the match.
