Do the monster Bavarians devour even toothless Wolves?
Late on Sunday afternoon, Bayern and Wolfsburg will clash at the Allianz Arena in Munich. According to the betting odds, there is of course no doubt that the record champion will win this match. In order to be able to generate attractive quotes between these two teams, you therefore need some creativity and alternative betting markets.
Those who followed the Nagelsmann team’s brilliant performance last Friday will probably be inclined towards a handicap bet in favour of Sadio Mané and Co. The FCB has been in an extremely good mood in both of its competitive matches so far, first overrunning RB Leipzig and then Eintracht Frankfurt the previous week.
For many Munich professionals, it is now also against their former coach Niko Kovac, who has left in disarray and is now at the helm of VfL. The home side will not be lacking in motivation, so there is no alternative but to give various predictions between Bayern and Wolfsburg a slight “Mia san Mia” touch.
Bayern – statistics & current form
You don’t even have to be a Bayern sympathiser these days to enviously recognise that the reigning title holders and champions of the past ten Bundesliga seasons are currently celebrating inspiring attacking football. Although the Munich team is only two games into the season, there are already quite a few experts who would attest to an increase in quality compared to the previous season.
Last season, the record champion’s style of play was still relatively easy to calculate and primarily tailored to Robert Lewandowski as a classic nine, but now the “arrows” come from all directions in the form of many fast difference players. Five goals against RB Leipzig, six goals against Eintracht Frankfurt. Julian Nagelsmann can finally play football the way he wants to without Lewy. And it works. Everyone is talking about the FCB and it’s fun to watch them.
Does Bayern start like fire again?
In view of the impressions we have had so far, we would be very surprised if the players from Säbener Straße did not win another convincing game on Sunday. This one could also turn out to be significant, as 23 of the 25 home games in the Bundesliga were won against VfL Wolfsburg. In the past 28 league games, Munich have always scored at least one goal against the Lower Saxons. In five of the last eight direct duels, the defending champions scored three times or more. Against this background, it quickly becomes clear why the handicap bet (-2) in favour of the home team is our preferred betting option between Bayern and Wolfsburg.
Since 2011/12, the serial champions have not lost the first home match of a new season. In ten matches of this kind, there have been nine wins and one draw. Nevertheless, it must be noted that in the past three seasons, the first two Bundesliga games have never been won. The last time that happened was in 2018/19, when the team was still under Niko Kovac, who nevertheless left many players with scorched earth and could get his revenge on Sunday.
No changes are expected in the starting eleven. Why should there be? At half-time, Bayern led the Europa League winners 5:0, and against Leipzig, three of the five goals were scored in the first 45 minutes. Reason enough to look at the odds on the half-time handicap (-1) in the Bayern vs Wolfsburg clash. Coman, Goretzka, Wanner and Choupo-Moting will be missing. Instead, we can once again look forward to the new star of the Bundesliga: Sadio Mané. As well as Jamal Musiala, who scored twice against Eintracht and is currently in the form of his life.
Predicted Bayern line-up:
Neuer – Pavard, Upamecano, Hernandez, Davies – Kimmich, Sabitzer – T. Müller, Musiala – Gnabry, Mané
Last matches played by Bayern:
Bundesliga
06/08/2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 6 Bayern Munich
Super Cup
31/07/2022 – RB Leipzig 3 – 5 Bayern Munich
Friendly club matches
24/07/2022 – Bayern Munich 0 – 1 Manchester City
21/07/2022 – DC United 2 – 6 Bayern Munich
Bundesliga
14/05/2022 – VfL Wolfsburg 2 – 2 Bayern Munich
Wolfsburg – Statistics & current form
VfL Wolfsburg would certainly have imagined their Bundesliga start a little differently last weekend. At home against promoted Werder Bremen, the Wolves had actually set themselves the goal of bagging their first three points. In the end, however, the Lower Saxons had to settle for a 2-2 draw, which was even fortunate due to the late equaliser.
After the lacklustre victory in the DFB Cup after extra time against the regional league team from Jena and the equally disappointing start to the league season, the euphoria that had at least begun to emerge has already given way to a certain gloom. New coach Niko Kovac points out that he will need time to transfer his signature to the team. However, the German-Croat will not get that time at the weekend. With a similarly unfocused defensive performance as against Werder, a heavy defeat is imminent.
Will van de Ven become a pitiful Bayern victim?
Statistics do, however, give some confidence, as the Autostadt side have not lost their first away game in any of the last seven seasons. No other Bundesliga team currently has such a record. A small flaw: VfL never had to play at the Allianz Arena during this period. In other words, where the grapes traditionally do not hang at eye level for the Green-Whites, but far above the treetop.
If we now delve even deeper into the tactical elements of the game, we predict big problems for left-back van de Ven in particular. The 21-year-old Dutchman is actually a trained centre-back, but has recently been given preference on the left side in the back four.
Against Mané, Gnabry, Müller, Musiala and Co., however, his inexperience is likely to make itself felt. Time and again, the Munich Arrows will look for this match-up and take advantage of it. The bottom line is that all the arguments speak for a Bayern vs. Wolfsburg prediction of a landslide victory for the record champions. Fischer, Gerhardt and Wind are still not options due to injury.
Predicted Wolfsburg line-up:
Casteels – R. Baku, Bornauw, Lacroix, van de Ven – Arnold, Guilavogui – Wimmer, Brekalo, Marmoush – L. Nmecha
Last matches played by Wolfsburg:
Bundesliga
06/08/2022 – VfL Wolfsburg 2 – 2 Werder Bremen
Friendly club matches
31/07/2022 – VfL Wolfsburg 3 – 1 Hessen Kassel
DFB Cup
30/07/2022 – Carl Zeiss Jena 0 – 1 VfL Wolfsburg
Friendly club matches
23/07/2022 – VfL Wolfsburg 4 – 0 Brentford
16/07/2022 – KV Mechelen 3 – 4 VfL Wolfsburg
Bayern – Wolfsburg Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
We have already discussed the direct comparison. In short: Bayern have lost only four of 50 Bundesliga games against the Wolves, have a home record of 23 wins in 25 attempts (two draws) and have scored 80 goals in the last 28 Bundesliga encounters against the VfL alone, i.e. more than three goals on average per encounter.
In as many as four of the FCB’s past eight home games against the Wolves, the bet on the handicap (-2) would also have gone through. This was also the case in the pre-season, when the “Nagelsmänner” dispatched the Green-Whites at home with 4:0. A result that we also consider to be quite realistic on Sunday.
Bayern – Wolfsburg Tip
From 2018 to 2019, Niko Kovac was on the sidelines of FC Bayern in a total of 44 Bundesliga games. Since 2013, however, no other coach has had such a low win rate as the ex-professional, who turned many players against him, especially with his methodology, and then lost the dressing room and ultimately his job. Now the former Frankfurt coach is returning to the Allianz Arena, but he knows how difficult the task will be against the “in-form” Bavarians.
Admittedly, we don’t have much confidence in VfL on Sunday. The record champions have been too dominant recently against Leipzig and Frankfurt. This is the first time they have played at home this season. Mané, Gnabry, Musiala, Müller and Co. will once again make the difference and ensure a commanding success in their inimitable manner.
We have therefore decided to play the odds on the Bayern handicap (-2) between Bayern and Wolfsburg. We are convinced that the serial champion will win with at least a three-goal difference and base this assumption not least on the many direct duels between these teams, which clearly went in the FCB’s direction. It was not uncommon for the Wolves to go down to defeat in the Free State.
