Will Wolfsburg’s free fall continue in Munich?
Florian Kohfeldt is really not to be envied at the moment. After a promising start to his tenure at VfL Wolfsburg with three wins in three games, the Lower Saxons have now slipped into a downward spiral. Six defeats in a row have been recorded for the Wolves. The seventh defeat is already looming on Friday evening, when the VfL team plays host to FC Bayern, the established autumn champions.
It doesn’t take an in-depth analysis to explain the significantly lower odds before the Bayern vs Wolfsburg clash. After all, the league leaders, who have won eight of their last nine Bundesliga games, face the unsettled visitors, who, to make matters worse, have one of the weakest offences of the current season.
Adding to the difficulty is the fact that Bayern have won eleven of their last twelve encounters in the top flight. In 24 appearances at the Allianz Arena or previously at the Olympiastadion, the Autostadt side have never won a Bundesliga away match in Munich. There are therefore simply no valid arguments for predicting a surprise coup between Bayern and Wolfsburg.
Bayern – statistics & current form
Even before the last matchday of the first half of the season, it is clear that FC Bayern will spend the winter at the top of the table. The record champions currently have a six-point lead over Borussia Dortmund and a twelve-point lead over third-placed Bayer Leverkusen. No wonder, then, that the odds on the next championship title for Munich are already at an all-time low.
Admittedly, the team of coach Julian Nagelsmann has earned this starting position. The last four Bundesliga games were all victorious. Looking back at the past ten games in the Bundesliga, there have been eight victories. In general, the record reads very dominant again, with 13 wins from 16 matches and an impressive goal difference of 52:16.
Bayern dominate the Bundesliga once again
On Friday evening to kick off Matchday 17 in the Bundesliga, we expect another dominant performance from FCB, who have already led at half-time in ten of their 13 wins this season. Consequently, it is definitely an option to bet on the double HT1/FT1 result in the Bayern vs Wolfsburg clash.
If there were a separate table for the first 45 minutes, Bayern would also be in the lead. They have already scored 26 goals in the first half of this season alone. Combined with the fact that Manuel Neuer has only conceded six goals at the Allianz Arena, while Lewandowski and Co. have already scored 25 goals at home, we think there is every reason to bet on a commanding home victory for the favourites.
If you need an additional argument, you should look at Robert Lewandowski’s statistics against VfL Wolfsburg. Against no club in the Bundesliga did the Pole score more often than against the Lower Saxons. 23 goals in 20 games speaks for itself. In terms of personnel, Julian Nagelsmann will not have to make many changes compared to the 5-0 win against Stuttgart last week. Only Coman is certain to miss out. Roca is a question mark. Alternatively, Sabitzer could make his comeback after injury, especially as Goretzka and Kimmich are also still missing.
Predicted line-up of Bayern:
Neuer – Süle, Upamecano, Hernandez – Roca, Musiala – Gnabry, T. Müller, L. Sané, Davies – Lewandowski
Last matches played by Bayern:
1st Bundesliga
12/14 2021 – VfB Stuttgart 0 – 5 Bayern Munich
12/11 2021 – Bayern Munich 2 – 1 Mainz 05
Champions League Grp. E
12/08 2021 – Bayern Munich 3 – 0 Barcelona
1st Bundesliga
12/04 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 3 Bayern Munich
11/27 2021 – Bayern Munich 1 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld
Wolfsburg – Statistics & current form
What is going on with VfL Wolfsburg? The Wolves have now lost six games in a row and are in a free fall towards the bottom of the table. In eleventh place, the green-whites have only 20 points on their account and are thus only three points ahead of the relegation places. On top of that comes the bitter exit from the Champions League, where they had everything in their own hands at home in the last match against Lille and still lost out.
In the current state of affairs, it is therefore hard to imagine a prediction of an away coup between Bayern and Wolfsburg coming true. Especially, of course, in view of the fact that VfL have never won away at the record champions in their Bundesliga history. In 24 attempts, they have suffered 22 defeats and conceded 69 goals. Against no other club do the Lower Saxons have such a miserable record.
Does Wolfsburg’s defence collapse against Lewy and Co.?
One of Kohfeldt’s biggest problems at the moment is the defence. While Wolfsburg were one of the most stable teams in the Bundesliga under Oliver Glasner in the pre-season, they have already conceded 25 goals after 16 matchdays. Especially in recent weeks, the defence has looked erratic and unfocused. In the last five games, at least two goals were conceded. In total, they conceded 13 goals, i.e. an average of almost three.
Accordingly, it can also be an option to play the odds on a handicap win for the home side between Bayern and Wolfsburg. In view of the defensive weaknesses, even a home win with at least a three-goal lead seems absolutely plausible. Incidentally, it is quite possible that coach Kohfeldt will switch to a three/five-man backline. The offensive burden would then lie on Nmecha, Weghorst and Lukebakio. But at least the latter has a glorious past against the FCB. We still remember the Belgian’s Düsseldorf days….
Predicted Wolfsburg line-up:
Casteels – Lacroix, Guilavogui, Bornauw – R. Baku, Vranckx, Arnold, Gerhardt – Lukebakio, F. Nmecha – Weghorst
Last matches played by Wolfsburg:
1st Bundesliga
12/14 2021 – Vfl Wolfsburg 2 – 3 1. FC Köln
12/11 2021 – Vfl Wolfsburg 0 – 2 VfB Stuttgart
Champions League Grp. G
12/08 2021 – Vfl Wolfsburg 1 – 3 Lille
1st Bundesliga
12/04 2021 – Mainz 05 3 – 0 Vfl Wolfsburg
11/27 2021 – Vfl Wolfsburg 1 – 3 Borussia Dortmund
Bayern – Wolfsburg Tip
Clear signs are there on Friday evening for the start of the last matchday of the Hinrunde in the Bundesliga. Bayern welcomes Wolfsburg and is of course the favourite according to the betting odds.
We agree with this assessment, after all, the Lower Saxons have never won an away match at the record champions in Germany’s top division. And that in 24 attempts. Moreover, the form curves are completely contrary to each other. Bayern have recently celebrated four wins in a row and, despite personnel problems, have shot themselves to the title of autumn champions, while VfL have now lost six in a row across all competitions.
Not least because of this, we think that between Bayern and Wolfsburg, our tip has to go in the direction of the Munich side. We think the double result is the most promising, especially as the FCB have already been ahead at half-time in ten of their 13 wins this season. No other team scored more “points” in the first 45 minutes than coach Julian Nagelsmann’s team.
Although only 1.55 is offered as top odds for HT1/FT1, we would still play this bet with a confident stake of nine units. Alternatively, it would be possible to bet on a Bayern victory with at least a three-goal difference. A win for Manuel Neuer and Co. to nil also seems quite likely in our eyes.
