Will Bayern still jump off the cliff?
“Luck of the draw for FC Bayern” – headlines of this kind followed the draw for the quarter-finals of this year’s UEFA Champions League. The supposedly easiest draw, however, does not turn out to be a foregone conclusion for the Nagelsmann eleven. The second leg will be played on Tuesday evening and the German champions have their backs to the wall. The match between Bayern and Villarreal kicks off at 9 p.m.
While the bookmakers are offering relatively low odds on the Munich side to win the “To-Qualify” between Bayern and Villarreal, the first leg last Wednesday has set alarm bells ringing. Bayern have to make up a 0:1 deficit. The lack of a goal at the Estadio de la Ceramica means that the now defunct away goals rule is definitely an advantage for the Germans. However, an improvement in performance compared to last week is imperative, as the only positive thing about last Wednesday was the result.
The confidence of the German fans is absolutely justified, however, as Manuel Neuer has already dubbed the second leg a “game that is tailor-made for us”. Indeed, Bayern are known for often delivering a gala performance in such games. So can the Munich team still avoid an early exit? Or will the easiest of opponents turn out to be an insurmountable hurdle?
Bayern – Statistics & current form
The home game against Augsburg was supposed to serve as a chance to gain confidence and warm up for the “game of the year”. After all, the easy draw turned into a big threat in no time. The Bavarians did indeed win a must-win against the Fugenstadter, but the manner was anything but convincing. There was also the frustration substitution of Leroy Sane, who disappeared into the catacombs after a half-hearted handshake.
It is not only Sane who is seething, but also top scorer Lewandowski and Serge Gnabry seem anything but happy. Hasan Salihamidzic grabbed the latter for a 15-minute one-on-one meeting the day after the game. With a few exceptions, Bayern are currently a long way from their top form. Will this actually be enough to prevent them from being sunk by the yellow submarine?
Goal series broken
The first leg last week ended a proud streak for Bayern. In no less than 30 Champions League games in a row, the Munich side have scored at least once. The last time Bayern went without a goal of their own was against Liverpool in February 2019. The last time FCB went two CL games without scoring was in the 2013/14 season.
This is not to be expected, because normally Bayern are right on target in such games. This was already evident in the round of 16 second leg against Red Bull Salzburg, when the favourites took command from the start and overran the Bullen. The last time Bayern advanced to the next round despite a first-leg away defeat was in the quarter-finals in 2014/15. After a 1:3 defeat against FC Porto at the Estadio do Dragoes, they won 6:1 at home.
FC Bayern are certainly favourites, but due to the unrest and the weak form of the wingers, a bet on the “To-Qualify” of the Munich team with odds around 1.30 is not recommended. There is no value to be found here.
Predicted Bayern line-up:
Neuer – Davies, Upamecano, Nianzou, Pavard – Kimmich, Goretzka – Gnabry, Müller, Coman – Lewandowski
Last matches played by Bayern:
Bundesliga
04/09 2022 – Bayern Munich 1 – 0 Augsburg
Champions League Final
04/06 2022 – FC Villarreal 1 – 0 Bayern Munich
Bundesliga
04/02 2022 – SC Freiburg 1 – 4 Bayern Munich
03/19 2022 – Bayern Munich 4 – 0 Union Berlin
03/12 2022 – Hoffenheim 1 – 1 Bayern Munich
Villarreal – Statistics & current form
In between the two games against Bayern, the “Yellow Submarine” had a home game against Athletic Bilbao from the Basque Country last weekend. Once again, the Emery eleven was unable to make the step out of the league crisis. Villarreal had to settle for a 1-1 draw and have thus won only one of their last five games in the domestic championship. However, that slip-up was well calculated as Unai Emery rotated heavily with the second leg in mind.
Villarreal trembling for Europe
Villarreal had almost a complete B-team on the pitch and the key players were only used as wild cards. The chance of reaching the second Champions League semi-final in the club’s history is quite real and everything is subordinated to this goal. In doing so, they also accept that Villarreal will compete in the Europa Conference League at the most next season. The “yellow submarine” is currently only in seventh place and is already eight points behind sixth place.
European in captivating form
The current table position, however, only gives a limited indication of the actual performance capability. Villarreal is a team that puts the emphasis on the playing aspect. Three “sixes” in front of the back four seem defensive at first glance, but Villarreal are extremely ball-secure and always create good scoring opportunities from play.
Unai Emery has taken the “village club” (Villarreal has only 50,000 inhabitants) to the next level and implemented the winning gene. Last year’s Europa League title was no surprise; after all, Emery is “Mr. Europa League”. The always perfectly dressed head coach dreams of reaching the semi-finals of the UEFA Champions League for the first time. As Arsenal and PSG coach, he was never granted a place in the last four. Bayern vs. Villarreal odds of over 3.00 are still offered for this tip.
For this premiere to seem realistic, it can be assumed that the “yellow submarine” must score in Munich itself. Accordingly, the bet that both teams will score in the second leg entails far less risk. In terms of personnel, Unai Emery will hardly change anything after the convincing performance in the first leg.
Villarreal’s likely line-up:
Rulli – Estupinian, Torres, Albiol, Foyth – Capoue, Coquelin, Parejo – Danjuma, Lo Celso – Gerard Moreno
Last matches played by Villarreal:
La Liga
04/09 2022 – Villarreal FC 1 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
Champions League Final
04/06 2022 – Villarreal FC 1 – 0 Bayern Munich
La Liga
04/02 2022 – Levante 2 – 0 Villarreal FC
03/20 2022 – Cadiz 1 – 0 Villarreal FC
Champions League Final
03/16 2022 – Juventus FC 0 – 3 FC Villarreal
Bayern – Villarreal Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Many football fans rubbed their eyes in wonder last Wednesday – was it really the great FC Bayern Munich on the pitch? The Nagelsmann eleven delivered its weakest performance of the season and was more than well served with the narrow 0:1 defeat. Although Bayern fired 22 shots, only four were on Geronimo Rulli’s goal. In this context, 4 from 22 means a negative record in the top division.
In the end, the “yellow submarine” had to be annoyed about the lack of chances, because a 3:0 or even a 4:0 would definitely have been a deserved result. Only Arnaut Danjuma was able to put the ball in the net (sixth CL goal). The Emery eleven thus missed a small preliminary decision in the fight for the second CL semi-final ticket in the club’s history (after 2005/06).
Bayern – Villarreal tip
Bayern will definitely show a different face in the second leg on Tuesday. Such an inferior performance as last Wednesday is by no means to be expected, because Bayern are basically made for CL spectacles. But will this work out due to the current turmoil surrounding Lewy’s contract extension and Sane’s lack of form (no scorer in five games)? Doubts are certainly justified, especially as Villarreal are proving to be extremely stubborn opponents internationally. In the second leg between Bayern and Villarreal, we refrain from predicting the three-way, as the odds do not promise any value.
The “Yellow Submarine” will hardly be able to save the narrow lead over time for 90 minutes. Above all, Emery’s eleven represents a team that wants to play football itself and is not only out to destroy. Chances should therefore once again arise on both sides and the likelihood that betting on both teams to score between Bayern and Villarreal will prove to be correct is very high. Six units are taken as the stake for this prediction.
