Who will win the first title of the season?
Is he coming? Isn’t he coming? Or is he? For many weeks, the change of hands between FC Bayern Munich and Harry Kane dragged on. On Thursday there was finally a decisive step forward in the negotiations. Tottenham accepted the fourth offer from the record champions, so that the captain of the English national football team will move to Säbener Straße with immediate effect.
The 30-year-old FCB’s new ninth man will probably watch the first title match of the new season from afar, however. At any rate, the best bookmakers are not yet offering a bet on Harry Kane as the goalscorer between Bayern and RB Leipzig.
We think it is unlikely that this will change in the short term. With or without Kane: Thomas Tuchel’s team are clear favourites for the Super Cup final and, as we all know, still have a score to settle with the visitors from the central city.
On the penultimate matchday of the pre-season, the Munich side almost lost the championship against the Saxons at the same venue. The FCB lost 1:3 at home and thus gave up pole position in the title race to Dortmund. In the end, however, it was the champions from the Isar who secured the trophy for the eleventh time in a row and now want to lift silverware into the Munich evening sky after the first competitive match of the new season.
The Bayern vs. RB Leipzig forecast for a high-scoring encounter is just as interesting as a bet on Joshua Kimmich and Co. In 2022, eight goals were scored in the Super Cup final between the champions and the cup winners…
Bayern – Statistics & current form
The already pronounced role of the favourites should be further increased by the Kane transfer. After a disappointing second half of last season, there is a huge yearning for a return to their former strength and former glory
At the same time, however, there is also extreme pressure on Thomas Tuchel and his coaching team. Football Germany is expecting a commanding championship, the first DFB Cup victory after three unsuccessful years and, at best, a deep run in the UEFA Champions League. We are therefore looking forward to the first real test on Saturday evening in front of our home crowd. In the Super Cup final between Bayern and RB Leipzig, the odds speak a clear language in favour of the home side.
How strong are Bayern really?
The preparation has been decent so far in terms of results, although various transfer issues have caused some unrest within the team throughout the Asia trip. The Kane discussion was by no means the only bone of contention. The ongoing debate about the position and role of Joshua Kimmich and the unclear health situation with Manuel Neuer also repeatedly shifted the focus away from sporting matters.
Yet the Munich team seems to be in impressive early form, especially offensively. In the dress rehearsal, Monaco were put in their place with 4:2, and before that, Liverpool FC were defeated with 4:3. The only defeat in the preparation was against the Champions League winners Manchester City (1:2). With a view to the results and the enormous individual quality on the side of FCB, a forecast of a spectacular title match with a few goals between Bayern and RB Leipzig is quite obvious.
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
RB Leipzig achieved something last season that was last accomplished by a club other than FC Bayern around the turn of the millennium: The successful defence of the DFB Cup title. Well over 20 years after FC Schalke 04 won the German club cup in two consecutive seasons in 2001 and 2002, the central city team has now followed in the big footsteps.
Coach Marco Rose’s team would very much like to add to their cup victory with success in the Super Cup. This is the second time the Bullen have made it to this final, but the first attempt last year was lost 3:5 after regulation time. By way of comparison, Bayern have now won three Super Cups in a row and have also come out on top in six of the previous seven title games. Needless to say, the record champions are also the record winners of this competition.
How far has the upheaval progressed?
It remains to be seen whether the Saxons will be able to set off similar fireworks at the Allianz Arena on Saturday evening as they did in their last guest game on matchday 33 of last season. The fact is that the squad fell victim to a major personnel upheaval. With Konrad Laimer, Dominik Szoboszlai, Christopher Nkunku and, most recently, Joskvo Gvardiol, the cup winners have been deprived of a complete axis.
It may take some time before the young, talented newcomers like Lois Openda, Fabio Carvalho, Xavi Simons, Benjamin Sesko or Nicolas Seiwald can fill the gaps. However, there should be no lack of quality, speed, creativity or finishing power right from the start, which is why the Rose eleven can be expected to do a lot in the game with the ball or in the transition game. This subjective assessment also serves as an additional argument for taking a closer look at the odds for over-bets in the Bayern vs RB Leipzig clash.
Defensively, on the other hand, the central cities definitely still need to take action. After the aforementioned departure of defender Gvardiol and the bitter injury to newcomer Bitshiabu, who will be out until at least the turn of the year, there are only two nominal centre-backs in the squad, Simakan and Orban. In preparation, the team conceded two goals against Udinese and against regional league team Altglienicke. On Saturday, a completely different calibre awaits…
Bayern – RB Leipzig Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
We have already discussed Leipzig’s 3-1 away win on the penultimate matchday of pre-season in detail. To date, however, it was only the second full success in 17 attempts for the Saxons, who have lost nine times and had to settle for a draw on six occasions.
The top teams have also faced each other twice in the DFB Cup. In 2017/18, the Munich side narrowly prevailed on penalties at the Red Bull Arena. A year later, the FCB won the final against RBL by a clear 3:0. Also interesting: In five of the last seven direct duels, a bet on the over 2.5 would have paid off. A good omen for Saturday night?
Bayern – RB Leipzig Tip
Thomas Tuchel won the cup with Borussia Dortmund and the championship with FC Bayern last season. So Tuchel is only missing one national title: the Super Cup! At best, that should change on Saturday evening. In any case, the chances are good, because in the duel champion against cup winner, Bayern vs. RB Leipzig, one-sided betting odds are issued in favour of the Munich team.
In the three-way market, they may even be too clear-cut, considering that this is the first competitive match of the new season for both teams and that there is simply no empirical data on their current performance.
It is therefore conceivable to place a bet on the record champion winning the match in regular time with at least a two-goal difference. Alternatively, we assume that the favourites will score in both halves. The Saxons’ depleted defence faces a mammoth task, even though Harry Kane is (probably) yet to feature.
Our preferred Bayern vs. RB Leipzig tip, however, relates to the number of goals. Due to the offensive strength of both teams, we see at least three goals after 90 minutes and therefore play the over 2.5 at odds of 1.55 with eight units on.
