Will Mbappe shoot PSG into the quarter-finals?
It’s the big games, with everything at stake, that send football fans into raptures. When it comes to the knockout games in the Champions League, things get really exciting. Some of the best football teams in the world meet each other and because the level there is extremely close, you have to look closely on Wednesday to see which way the tip goes in the clash between Bayern and PSG.
Bayern Munich won the first leg at Paris’ Prinzenpark 1-0 on Valentine’s Day after a goal from Kingsley Coman, and the starting position ahead of the second leg at home couldn’t be much better than going into this game with an away win.
That’s also because the German record champions are extremely good at defending first-leg victories. So far, Munich have won 22 first legs in the knockout phase of the Champions League, and only twice have they lost out afterwards – against Real Madrid in 2002 and Inter Milan in 2011. In 20 duels, FC Bayern’s success in the first leg was also enough to advance to the next round.
The situation is different for Paris Saint-Germain. The French champions have lost six first legs in the knockout rounds and have only made it to the next round once. But in 2020, the French managed to do so against a German team, Borussia Dortmund, of all teams. This could be a good omen for predicting the progress of the star team from the Seine in the match between Bayern and PSG.
Bayern – statistics & current form
Bayern are an absolute power at home in the Champions League. For eight games, there has been no home defeat in the top division. This season, the Munich team has also won all seven of its games. It is therefore justified that Julian Nagelsmann’s team will remain favourites against such a strong opponent as Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday.
Over a year without a home defeat
Over a year without a home defeat
The last home defeat was in January 2022 in the Bundesliga against Borussia Mönchengladbach. In general, there has only been one defeat in the last seven games, then also against the Foals. In addition, the Munich team has always scored in the last 23 games. Therefore, you should possibly also keep an eye on the odds between Bayern and PSG on goals from both teams or over-goals.
Last Saturday, Julian Nagelsmann’s side struggled mightily at VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga. It was an even game in the first half, with Matthijs de Ligt netting his team the lead after just over half an hour. Even the 2:0 by Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting did not bring any security. After the Swabians had scored a second goal in the final phase, the record champions had to fear for a 2-1 victory.
Nevertheless, there are many indications that the Munich team will start with an unchanged line-up on Wednesday. Of course, players like Serge Gnabry, Sadio Mane or Leroy Sane are always options to play from the start. Kingsley Coman, however, is the only option at the moment, and Jamal Musiala and Thomas Müller are also in good form. Benjamin Pavard (suspension) as well as the injured Manuel Neuer and Lucas Hernandez will not be in the game.
Bayern’s likely line-up:
Sommer – de Ligt, Upamecano, Stanisic – Kimmich, Goretzka, Davies, Coman – Müller, Musiala – Choupo-Moting – Coach: Nagelsmann
Last matches played by Bayern:
Bundesliga
05/03/2023 – VfB Stuttgart 1 – 2 Bayern Munich
26/02/2023 – Bayern Munich 3 – 0 Union Berlin
18/02/2023 – Gladbach 3 – 2 Bayern Munich
Champions League Final
15/02/2023 – Paris Saint-Germain 0 – 1 Bayern Munich
Bundesliga
11/02/2023 – Bayern Munich 3 – 0 VfL Bochum
PSG – Statistics & current form
Unlike Bayern, the French continue to have a reasonable grip on the national Ligue 1. Christophe Galtier’s team is in first place and eight points ahead of first chaser Olympique Marseille. That means the French champions can concentrate fully on the top flight and put league games on the back burner for the time being.
No to-nil game in the top flight
Full focus on Bayern is important, though, as Paris Saint-Germain are the only team still in the Champions League and have not gone without conceding a goal in the competition this season. But the French have Kylian Mbappe in their ranks, who provides the offensive penetration. The superstar scored in the last two games in Munich. Therefore, we can imagine that one can also make a prediction on a goal by Mbappe in the duel between Bayern and PSG
This past weekend, Paris hosted FC Nantes at the Parc des Princes. A Lionel Messi goal and an own goal made it 2-0 after a quarter of an hour, but Nantes had equalised at the break, highlighting the French champions’ defensive problems. Danilo Pereira and Kylian Mbappe, who became Paris Saint-Germain’s record goalscorer, made it 4-2.
The absence of Neymar in particular could have a negative impact. With him, Paris Saint-Germain would certainly be even more dangerous offensively. Nevertheless, with Mbappe and Messi, they have two very strong goal scorers who exerted enormous pressure in the final phase of the first leg. That’s exactly what we expect at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday, which is why we don’t see the French as being without a chance and think that Christoph Galtier’s side are far too likely to progress.
Predicted line-up of PSG:
Donnarumma – Mendes, Marquinhos, Ramos, Hakimi – Verratti, Zaire-Emery, Ruiz, Soler – Mbappe, Messi – Coach: Galtier
Injured and suspended players of PSG:
No information available.
Last matches played by PSG:
Ligue 1
05/03/2023 – Paris Saint-Germain 4 – 2 Nantes
27/02/2023 – Marseille 0 – 3 Paris Saint-Germain
19/02/2023 – Paris Saint-Germain 4 – 3 Lille
Champions League Final
15/02/2023 – Paris Saint-Germain 0 – 1 Bayern Munich
Ligue 1
11/02/2023 – AS Monaco 3 – 1 Paris Saint-Germain
Bayern – PSG Direct comparison / H2H balance
To date, Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain have met twelve times in the Champions League. This means that the French have not played against any other club more often in the top flight. The direct comparison is even with 6:6 victories.
The highlight of the direct duels was, of course, the final of the top flight in 2020, when the Munich side prevailed 1-0 after a goal by Kingsley Coman. The first leg in the current round was a replay of the final. This time, both teams faced each other in the City of Love, but once again FCB won 1-0 and once again Coman was the scorer.
Bayern – PSG Tip
The statistics are more in favour of FC Bayern, who have won all seven of their matches in the top flight this season. Moreover, the Munich side score in almost every match and Paris always concedes goals in the Champions League. That means the visitors will probably need to score at least two goals if they want to advance a round.
However, they also possess the attacking players capable of doing so. If Paris Saint-Germain’s attackers can reach normal form, then we trust Christoph Galtier’s team to win at the Allianz Arena and can imagine a tip-off between Bayern and PSG.
From our point of view, the odds on an away win are far too high, especially since Paris failed to score several times against Yann Sommer in the closing stages of the first leg and Bayern travelled home with a lucky win. Therefore, we have decided to keep the stakes a little narrower, but still play the betting odds on the visitors progressing in the Bayern vs PSG match.
