Will Munich clinch the championship?

With four matchdays remaining in the season, FC Bayern Munich has an eight-point lead over defending champions Bayer 04 Leverkusen. So if Leverkusen fail to win at home against Augsburg, the championship could be decided on matchday 31 if Bayern win at home against Mainz. This is supported by the fact that the Bavarians have won all of their last seven Bundesliga home games against Leverkusen.

The Rheinhessen have also squandered their recent momentum. After suddenly finding themselves serious contenders for a Champions League spot, the Nullfünfer have now gone five games without a win (three draws, two defeats). There is therefore little to suggest that Bo Henriksen’s team will pick up any points against Bayern, especially as the FCB are a force to be reckoned with at home, winning twelve of their 15 Bundesliga home games in 2024/25 (two draws, one defeat).

Nevertheless, it could be a close game, as this match pits two of the three best defenses in the Bundesliga against each other. Mainz have conceded only 36 goals, while Bayern have conceded just 29. Interestingly, FCB have conceded only 11 goals in the first half, allowing very little in the opening 45 minutes. As we expect Mainz to start cautiously on the Isar, a sensible approach could be to bet on under 1.5 goals in the first half.

Bayern vs. Mainz prediction AI

Supercomputer BETSiE calculates an expected goals value of 2.74 for FC Bayern Munich and only 0.86 for 1. FSV Mainz 05. The AI even rates the chance of the record champions winning by three goals as 48.2 percent. It is therefore interesting to bet on the significantly less risky handicap of -1 for the Reds, which is the AI prediction for Bayern against Mainz. The Interwetten app offers attractive odds of 1.67 for this bet.

Bayern – Statistics & current form

After losing the first leg in Mainz (1-2), FC Bayern now welcomes one of its favorite opponents to its home stadium. The last seven Bundesliga home games against Mainz have all been won – the record champions have not had a longer winning streak against any other current Bundesliga team. Most recently, FSV suffered a 1-8 defeat at the Allianz Arena. Overall, Munich has already recorded 22 wins and only two defeats this season – a record last achieved under Carlo Ancelotti in 2016/17.

The FCB has been particularly strong defensively this season. Only 29 goals conceded is the best record in the league, and Munich has conceded just eleven goals in the first half – also the fewest in the league. The record champions are also setting the tone in direct duels: no team wins more tackles (53.6%) or wins the ball back more often in high zones (291 high ball wins). The record champions also lead the league in pressing with the lowest PPDA value (9.6).

Will Kane shoot Bayern to the championship?

Harry Kane has scored an incredible 60 goals in his first 60 Bundesliga games – no player has ever been so prolific in their first two seasons in Germany’s top flight. If he scores again, he will remain on course to become the first player ever to finish as top scorer in his first two Bundesliga seasons. He is supported by Michael Olise, among others, who is currently the league’s sole leader with eleven assists – only James Rodriguez had previously achieved this many assists in his first FCB season (2017/18).

Thomas Müller is also on the verge of a historic milestone: Bayern’s longest-serving player could make his 500th Bundesliga appearance – all for FC Bayern. This would put him in an exclusive circle that currently only includes Charly Körbel, Manfred Kaltz, and Michael Lameck. If the veteran scores in the game, the Bwin app is offering odds of 2.80 for a Müller goal in Bayern’s match against Mainz.

Mainz – Statistics & current form

In the 2-1 win in the first leg, 1. FSV Mainz 05 handed FC Bayern one of only two defeats this season. And this victory was no flash in the pan. Until recently, Mainz were even in a Champions League spot before hitting a rough patch. The Rheinhessen are winless in five Bundesliga games for the first time under Bo Henriksen (three draws, two defeats). At the same time, Mainz have failed to keep a clean sheet in seven Bundesliga games in a row – another first in the Dane’s tenure.

Despite everything, the FSV’s defense has been impressive with its consistency: only Bayern Munich (29) and Bayer Leverkusen (35) have conceded fewer goals than Mainz (36, level with St. Pauli). Mainz’s defense is particularly strong after the break: no team has conceded fewer goals in the second half (17), which is why it’s not so far-fetched to predict that the visitors could make the return leg against Bayern an exciting affair.

Mainz wants to cause problems for Bayern with high pressing

When it comes to playing against the ball, Mainz is one of the most active teams in the league: with 106 tackles per game, FSV ranks second, but also has the worst tackle success rate in the league (48.1%). The team also presses high: Mainz have won 258 balls in high areas and, with a PPDA value of 11.1, have the second-best record behind Bayern Munich.

Jae-Sung Lee, who scored twice in the first leg, is once again a key player this season. With seven goals, the South Korean has set his personal season record – no other Mainz player has been as consistent in attack. Nevertheless, the team faces a mammoth task: there have been a string of heavy defeats in Munich recently, and their current form does little to suggest that this run is coming to an end.

Bayern – Mainz Head-to-head record / H2H record

Head to head: 30 – 3 – 8

A total of 41 competitive matches have been played between the two teams so far, with FC Bayern Munich clearly leading the head-to-head record with 30 wins. The Reds have slipped up against Mainz on occasion recently, including in the first half of the season (1-2). However, FCB have won all of their last seven Bundesliga home games against FSV.

Bayern – Mainz Tip

Although the top bookmakers’ odds for Bayern against Mainz clearly favor the home side, FCB stumbled against Mainz in the first half of the season. Nevertheless, the record champions did not have too much trouble at home against the team from the Rhine-Main region. Munich have won their last seven Bundesliga home games in a row against FSV, which is why we see little value in betting on the visitors to pick up a point, especially as they have not won in five league games (three draws, two defeats) and are currently in danger of losing their European places.

Meanwhile, with a little help from Augsburg, Munich could even seal the championship early if Bayern wins at home against Mainz, which we expect them to do. With twelve wins from 15 Bundesliga home games, the Reds are an absolute force at home.

Nevertheless, we believe that the game will only really get going in the second half, which is why we see a lot of value in betting on a maximum of one goal being scored in the first half. NEO.bet is offering odds of 1.82 for under 1.5 goals before the half-time whistle, which we are cautiously betting on with three out of ten units.