Will the zero-fives stand up to the Reds once again?
In the second half of the 2020/21 season, Mainz 05 emerged as an absolute surprise team and went on a real winning spree. Among other things, they won against FC Bayern 2:1 and celebrated their first victory against the Munich side since March 2016. FSV are also in good form at the moment, with only one defeat in their last seven competitive matches at the Allianz Arena.
However, Bayern defeated none other than FC Barcelona 3-0 in the Champions League last week and recorded their fourth consecutive win in a competitive match. Accordingly, in the run-up to the match between Bayern and Mainz, the odds are clearly in favour of the German record champions.
However, the FCB must beware of the generally very stable defence of the Rheinhessen side. The Nullfünfer have conceded just 14 goals in 14 league games and have the second-best defence in the Bundesliga. We therefore see a lot of value in betting on a close match between Bayern and Mainz.
The Asian handicap of +1.5 on Mainz covers every win for the favourites with a maximum difference of one goal as well as every point gained by Svensson’s team
Bayern – Statistics & current form
FC Bayern München have already had a surprisingly crashing failure in the DFB Pokal when they suffered a 5-0 defeat at Borussia Mönchengladbach in the 2nd round. There have also been unexpected defeats in the league, such as the 1-2 defeats against Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg.
Overall, however, the Reds are back on course to defend their title, at the latest after last Saturday’s 3-2 away win at Borussia Dortmund. In fact, with 34 points out of a possible 42, the FCB have also picked up their best haul from the first 14 matchdays in six years, when their coach was still Pep Guardiola.
Won seven of last eight competitive games
During the week, the Reds also completed a perfect preliminary round in the Champions League with their sixth win in the sixth match, in which they defeated the great FC Barcelona 3-0, just like in the first leg.
The German record-holder’s chest is correspondingly broad these days, having won seven of their last eight competitive games and now hosting the opponent against whom the FCB have played at least ten times and against whom they have recorded the highest goal average (2.83 goals per game).
The German record-holder’s chest is correspondingly broad these days.
Won seven of last eight league games against Mainz
While there are definitely areas of improvement for the Reds, with not only Joshua Kimmich still out, but also Josip Stanisic, Marcel Sabitzer and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting. With the available quality across the board, the Munich side are nevertheless the clear favourites going into matchday 15.
Also because seven of the last eight league games against the Rheinhessen team have been won, the odds are clearly in favour of the German record champions when Bayern play Mainz.
Predicted Bayern line-up:
Neuer – Hernández – Upamecano – Süle – Goretzka – Tolisso – Savies – Sané – Müller – Coman – Lewandowski
Last matches played by Bayern:
Champions League Grp. E
12/08 2021 – Bayern Munich 3 – 0 Barcelona
1st Bundesliga
12/04 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 3 Bayern Munich
11/27 2021 – Bayern Munich 1 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld
Champions League Grp. E
11/23 2021 – Dynamo Kiev 1 – 2 Bayern Munich
1st Bundesliga
11/19 2021 – Augsburg 2 – 1 Bayern Munich
Mainz – Statistics & current form
At the beginning of the year, 1. FSV Mainz 05 introduced a new coach in Bo Svensson, who was supposed to somehow save the Nullfünfer, who were in acute relegation trouble. Thanks in part to an almost unbelievable second half of the season, this was achieved even before the end of the season. In the end, the Rheinhessen team finished twelfth.
In the meantime, it looked as if all momentum had evaporated when a small negative series in September and October resulted in only one of twelve possible points from four consecutive games. Most recently, however, Mainz have lost just one of their last seven competitive games.
The best start to a season in 14 years
Not only is FSV back in the last 16 of the DFB Pokal for the first time in four years, where they have a good chance of reaching the quarter-finals against VfL Bochum.
The Rhinelanders are also in an excellent position in the Bundesliga, seventh in the table.
The 21 points from the first 14 league games not only mean a strong average of 1.5 points per game, but also give the zero-fives their best season performance in eleven years so far. By way of comparison, this time a year ago the relegation-threatened Mainz side had 15 points less to their name.
The second best defence in the 2. Bundesliga
This upward trend was made possible on the one hand by the now very stable defence. The Rheinhessen side have conceded just 14 goals in their 14 league games so far, making them the second-best defensive team in the Bundesliga.
On the other hand, Jonathan Burkardt is currently making the difference up front. The centre forward has already scored seven goals, more than twice as many as in his first 41 Bundesliga games (three). Against this backdrop, the betting on a point win for the in-form Nullfünfer should not be categorically ruled out for Bayern against Mainz.
Predicted line-up of Mainz:
Zentner – Niakhaté – Hack – Bell – Aaron – Stach – Widmer – Lee – Barreiro – Onisiwo – Burkardt
Last matches played by Mainz:
1st Bundesliga
12/04 2021 – Mainz 05 3 – 0 Vfl Wolfsburg
11/26 2021 – VfB Stuttgart 2 – 1 Mainz 05
11/21 2021 – Mainz 05 1 – 1 1. FC Köln
11/05 2021 – Mainz 05 1 – 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
10/30 2021 – Arminia Bielefeld 1 – 2 Mainz 05
Bayern – Mainz Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 24 – 3 – 5
There have been a total of 32 meetings between the two teams so far and in 24 victories, three quarters of all games have gone to the Munich side. In the last meeting to date, however, the Rheinhessen team won 2-1.
Bayern – Mainz Tip
For Bayern against Mainz, the prediction has to take into account the good overall form of the home side, who have outdistanced their rivals after the away win in Dortmund and can boast their best points tally in six years. However, the Nullfünfer are also playing an excellent season and are extremely compact, especially defensively, conceding only 14 goals from 14 league games.
Although the FCB is rightly in the role of favourites. Nevertheless, the Rheinhessen side can be expected to put in a good performance at the Allianz Arena, which is why it makes the most sense to bet on Mainz with an Asian handicap of +1.5.
