Who leads the table after the top match?
The absolute highlight of the fourth Bundesliga matchday will take place on Friday evening at 20:30. The Allianz Arena will be the venue for a duel of superlatives. FC Bayern and Bayer Leverkusen are the only two teams to have scored the maximum nine points from three games so far. In addition, the best offense of the Werkself meets the most stable defense of the record champion.
The first meeting between coaches Thomas Tuchel and Xabi Alonso should also be particularly exciting. After all, more than a few experts assume that the former world-class kicker from Spain will eventually take a seat as coach on the bench of his former club.
Accordingly, there are highly interesting and sometimes explosive little stories that shape Friday’s Bundesliga top match and sometimes also influence the Bayern vs. Leverkusen tip.
Although the season in the German top flight is still young and only three matchdays are completed, but of course also the table constellation provides for tension. If a forecast for a point win by the visitors from the Rhineland in Bayern’s clash against Leverkusen proves correct, Bayer would definitely stay ahead in the standings.
Incidentally, this is the ninth time that the teams have faced each other head-to-head as first and second. The FCB has won seven of the previous eight matches. In 2022/23, the respective leaders also never managed to beat the runners-up in three matches. Also on Friday evening, the Tuchel eleven is considered the clear favorite. The lopsided betting odds, however, invite bets on a surprise coup.
Bayern – statistics & current form
Purely in terms of results, FC Bayern is playing a flawless Bundesliga season so far. All three games against Werder Bremen, FC Augsburg and most recently also in Mönchengladbach could be won. Despite the maximum number of points they have scored, however, the Munich team is nowhere near as dominant as it was during its heyday under Julian Nagelsmann.
Speaking of Nagelsmann, the former Bayern coach had to vacate his post in March 2023 after a 1-2 defeat in Leverkusen. The 36-year-old is now the hottest candidate to succeed Flick at the DFB.
It should also be borne in mind that the opponents so far have tended to be in the bottom third of the table and that Friday evening will be the first real acid test since losing the Super Cup final to RB Leipzig. It is therefore not possible to make a final assessment of their actual performance. Against this background, it is not fully comprehensible in our eyes that between Bayern and Leverkusen only odds of no more than 1.63 are offered on the home win. Value? No way!
Will Kane decide the top match?
Looking at the statistics, however, the picture is quite clear in favor of the serial champions from the south of the republic. For example, Munich have always scored at least once in their last 33 (!) BL home games against Bayer Leverkusen. In addition, the industry leader currently has the best defense in the Bundesliga with only two goals conceded, together with Eintracht Frankfurt.
Meanwhile, on the offensive side, hopes rest primarily on Harry Kane, who already has four scorer points after three match days and has scored three goals. The new star striker also scored a goal for the English national team during the international break. Should Kane also get on the scoresheet on Friday evening, this would bring appealing odds of 1.80 in the clash between Bayern and Leverkusen.
In terms of personnel, Thomas Tuchel still has to wait and see how the players have physically coped with their international trips. A question mark stands behind the use of Jamal Musiala. Joshua Kimmich, who was absent from Germany’s win against France due to injury, is expected to return to the starting eleven. Leroy Sané will definitely be in the starting lineup, as he is perhaps the most important player in Bavaria’s attacking play at the moment.
Predicted Bayern lineup:
Bayern Munich (Expected lineup) 4-2-3-1
Leverkusen – statistics & current form
Similar to FC Bayern Munich, Bayer Leverkusen is struggling with numerous substitutions for the national team. Particularly problematic could be the case of Exequiel Palacios, who played with the Argentine team only in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday in Bolivia and may not be expected back in the Rhineland until Thursday. His use from the start appears to be in jeopardy.
If the central midfielder, who has played an outstanding part alongside Granit Xhaka so far, is not at 100% and therefore not available from the start, coach Xabi Alonso would have to change his starting eleven for the first time this season. That, in turn, would be annoying insofar as the automatisms worked quite excellently on the first three match days. No other team in the Bundesliga has played more passes so far, no other team has controlled their games as elegantly as the leaders from the medicine city.
Leverkusen’s attack is ultra-hot
The Rhinelanders’ centerpiece is undoubtedly their offense, which has already scored eleven goals. Here, summer newcomer Victor Boniface stands out, who already brings it to six scorer points (four goals, two assists). The Nigerian also fired by far the most shots on goal (21) and, as a wall player in the front line, is essential for the enormous playfulness of Florian Wirtz and Co.
In view of the very pleasing offensive statistics and the fact that coach Xabi Alonso’s team has scored at least three goals in all three Bundesliga matches so far, the forecast for over-goals also seems very interesting ahead of the top match between Bayern and Leverkusen.
In all three of the aforementioned Bayer games, at least two goals were scored in the first 45 minutes. It is quite possible that this series will continue at the Allianz Arena, especially since the Werkself has another real FCB expert in its own ranks in Jonas Hofmann. The international has not been involved in more goals against any other opponent than against the record champions (eleven). With the offensive power of Boniface, Wirtz, Frimpong, Hofmann and colleagues, the aim now is to celebrate four wins in a row to start the season for the first time in the club’s Bundesliga history.
Predicted Leverkusen lineup:
Bayer Leverkusen (Expected lineup) 3-4-2-1
Bayern – Leverkusen Direct comparison / H2H balance
To date, there have been 88 meetings between Bayern and Bayer in the German top flight. With 52 wins, 17 draws and only 19 defeats, the Munich team clearly leads the direct comparison. In 44 league games at home, there have been 33 wins, nine draws and just four defeats.
Nevertheless, Bayer Leverkusen, behind Borussia Mönchengladbach, is the club that has brought the FCB to its knees most often since the beginning of 2012. There have been six successes in 23 attempts. The most recent duel also went 2-1 to the Rhinelanders, which led to the release of Julian Nagelsmann in March 2023.
It is also exciting to note that in ten of the past twelve encounters between these teams, betting on the over 2.5 would have always paid off. In most cases, moreover, both teams scored at least one goal. Moreover, in eight of the last ten matches, the ball crossed the goal line twice or more in the first 45 minutes.
Bayern – Leverkusen tip
Between 1996 and 2006 Jens Nowotny laced up his soccer boots for Bayer Leverkusen. With the Werkself, the central defender reached the Champions League final, which he missed due to injury, and delivered some tough fights with FC Bayern in the Bundesliga.
In fact, a surprise coup for the Rhinelanders is well within the realm of possibility. The Xabi Alonso eleven has been convincing all along the line so far, winning all three matches and scoring an impressive eleven goals in the process. Bayer looks extremely stable, well-rehearsed and focused, so before Bayern’s match against Leverkusen, we were puzzled by the lopsided betting odds on the three-way market.
An attractive value is therefore hidden between Bayern and Leverkusen in the double chance X2 tip, which is quoted with a 2.40 in the top at Betano sports betting. Five units is a reasonable bet that brings risk and reward in a good ratio. Alternatively, you can think about a bet on Kane as the goal scorer. Equally interesting is the over 1.5 in the first half, which can be statistically well justified.
