Bayern want to set off fireworks at the restart
Fans of German soccer have had to wait a little over three weeks. The time has finally come again on Friday evening. The beloved Bundesliga kicks off the new year with Bayern’s match against Hoffenheim. The German record champions are currently only in second place and – with a catch-up match against Union Berlin still to come – are currently four points behind leaders Leverkusen.
Based on the odds in the race for the championship trophy, however, Munich are still the favorites to win their twelfth title in a row
In the context of matchday 17, coach Thomas Tuchel’s team have an absolutely doable task ahead of them. The fact that Harry Kane and Co. are 84% likely to score in Bayern’s clash against Hoffenheim is partly due to their impressive head-to-head record. Munich have only lost one of their last 15 home games in the Bundesliga against the Kraichgauers. They have never failed to score a goal of their own
While it should not go unmentioned that Sinsheim are still one of the best away teams in the German top flight, TSG’s form curve did show a clear downward trend in the weeks leading up to Christmas. Defensively in particular, Matarazzo’s team proved to be very vulnerable time and time again. The threat of trouble looms again on Friday evening against the league’s most prolific offense. In general, the odds underline that the good bookmakers are all expecting a high-scoring encounter. Looking at the over/under line, a prediction of four or more goals between Bayern and Hoffenheim over the course of the match could even come true
Bayern – statistics & current form
All around Säbener Straße there is a mood of mourning following the death of Franz Beckenbauer. In honor of the German soccer icon, all Bundesliga clubs will not only hold a minute’s silence this weekend, but also play with mourning flor. Although it will certainly be difficult for some players who knew the “Kaiser” personally to concentrate solely on the sporting side of things, the coaching staff must of course focus fully on the home game against TSG Hoffenheim to kick off the rest of the season.
Despite the clear role of favorites for the record champions, which is impressively supported by the Bayern vs Hoffenheim odds, Thomas Tuchel is not expecting a home run. This is partly due to the fact that Munich have failed to win their first league game of the new calendar year in each of the past two seasons. FCB had to contend with unusual teething problems in both the 2-1 defeat to Gladbach in 2022 and the 1-1 draw against RB Leipzig last year.
If you want to bet again on Friday evening that the runners-up in the table will start the 2024 season with a loss of points, it is better not to bet your own money, but to use the Bet365 bonus, for example, which grants new customers up to €100 extra on their first deposit.
Will Bayern start like a fire department again?
In our opinion, however, it makes far more sense to bet on a positive result in favor of FC Bayern. Especially at home in the Allianz Arena, the star ensemble from the Isar is still in a class of its own. They have won six of their seven home BL matches to date, with the only draw coming against Leverkusen (2:2). 30 goals in those seven matches correspond to an average of over four (!) goals per home game.
In five of the seven home matches, at least two goals were scored in the first 45 minutes. No other team has scored more goals on average in the first half than Tuchel’s side, who have been ahead at the break in ten of the 15 matches played to date. We are therefore not averse to making a prediction ahead of the opening match between Bayern and Hoffenheim that the reigning champions and top favorites will once again land a start-to-finish victory (HT1/FT1). On the other hand, it is also conceivable to consider the odds for the over 1.5 (1st half).
The latter betting option would also not rule out the possibility of the visitors from Kraichgau making their mark on the scoreboard. The absence of defensive boss Min-Jae Kim, who is away with South Korea at the Asian Cup, is one of the reasons for this. De Ligt is fit again and will start alongside Upamecano in the back four. However, Mazraoui, Sarr, Coman and Gnabry are not available. Kane will therefore have to pull the coals out of the fire in attack. Just as he has done so far this season, with 21 goals in 15 games and seven goals in the last eight league games.
Predicted Bayern line-up:
Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form
After a very satisfying start to the season with six wins in the first nine matchdays, including a 3:2 victory in Stuttgart, TSG Hoffenheim’s level dropped off noticeably in November and December. The last seven games before the winter break yielded just a single three-pointer. Three defeats and three, in some cases disappointing, point-splits rounded off the sobering phase. Nevertheless, the team remains in seventh place in the league table. However, they are only three points behind fifth-placed Dortmund and the right to play in the Europa League.
The team from Kraichgau have ambitious plans for the second half of the season, even though a wild rumor has leaked into the hot preparation phase. According to media reports, TSG defender Kevin Vogt is on the verge of a winter transfer to Union Berlin. The 32-year-old, who has started all 16 games and also plays an important role in the Hoffenheim squad, is likely to be tempted by a top salary, meaning the transfer could be finalized before kick-off on Friday evening at 8:30pm in the Allianz Arena.
The third-best away team has weakened away from home recently
Whether or not Vogt will be involved in the game in Munich, the odds between Bayern and Hoffenheim leave no doubt as to who has a much better chance of taking the three points. The Blue & Whites’ away strength mentioned in the introduction should also be treated with caution. While they won all of their first five away matches in the Bundesliga, they have only managed one more point in their three most recent away games. They lost in Leipzig and Gladbach and drew 1-1 in Augsburg.
Nevertheless, it should be noted that in five of Hoffenheim’s eight away games, at least two goals were scored before the break. Only Leverkusen and Bayern have scored more often in the first half than Matarazzo’s team, who have now gone eleven Bundesliga games without a clean sheet. An eleven-match conceded goal streak and a 20-match streak in which they have scored at least one goal of their own also favors our assumption that we will see a lot of goals on Friday. Probably even on both sides.
Predicted Hoffenheim line-up:
Bayern – Hoffenheim Direct comparison / H2H result
Bayern’s last home game against TSG Hoffenheim is not one that Bayern fans will remember fondly. On matchday 28 of the previous season, the Munich side dropped two important points in the championship race with a 1-1 draw. However, looking back at the last 15 home games against the Kraichgauers, it was only one of four matches that they did not win (11-3-1). On the other hand, FCB scored at least one goal of their own in all 15 matches at the Allianz Arena.
In general, spectators have usually been treated to plenty of spectacle in this fixture. At least three goals have been scored in eight of the last eleven meetings. In six of the last seven duels, over 1.5 in the first half would have been crowned with success
Bayern – Hoffenheim betting tip
The wait is finally over. The anticipation for the restart in the Bundesliga is huge, especially as a real surprise is in the offing in the championship race. Because FCB is currently only playing the role of the hunter, any slip-ups would be doubly bitter. With this in mind, we expect a focused performance from Munich in the 2024 season opener, who have won eleven of their last 15 home league games against the Kraichgauers and have already scored 30 (!) goals in seven home games this season (6-1-0).
In view of the fact that the odds on the Bayern v Hoffenheim clash are not playable on the three-way market, we had to get a little creative. For example, the odds on both teams scoring and Tuchel’s team still landing a commanding victory are attractive. There is also a lot to suggest that the second-placed team in the table will make a small preliminary decision in the first 45 minutes.
We therefore try to bet on the over 1.5 (1st half) between Bayern and Hoffenheim, which is offered at Bet3000 with maximum odds of 1.65.
