Will FCB make short work of unbeaten Freiburg?
For the 22nd time, SC Freiburg will make a trip to FC Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga this weekend. The Breisgauer have never been rewarded with a win in their 21 attempts so far. Only against VfL Wolfsburg have the record champions thus played more home games without ever conceding a defeat.
The likelihood that this impressive series will continue in the matchday eleven is quite high. The odds also underline that between Bayern and Freiburg.
Nonetheless, some interesting statistics have to be taken into account for a suitable Bayern vs Freiburg prediction. For example, Sport-Club is still the only team from the top three German professional leagues that is still completely unbeaten.
In addition, Streich’s team deserves the top match: This is only the second time in history that the SCF is hosting the FCB as the third-placed team in the intermediate league. The last time the Black Forest side was so far ahead in the standings, they fought their way to a remarkable 2-2 draw in Munich’s Olympic Stadium in 1995. Will the top match on Saturday afternoon again hold the potential for a surprise?
Bayern – Statistics & current form
All those who thought that the heavy 0:5 defeat in the DFB Pokal at Borussia Mönchengladbach would permanently upset FC Bayern, see themselves completely deceived these days. After one of the darkest hours in the club’s recent history, the Munich team showed the right reaction with two 5:2 victories in the Bundesliga against Union Berlin and in the Champions League against Benfica Lisbon.
In view of the performances shown, it is therefore hardly surprising that the odds between Bayern and Freiburg are so clearly in favour of the record champions. From a purely statistical point of view, everything actually speaks in favour of the FCB on Saturday.
Freiburg usually without a chance in the last years
As mentioned at the beginning, the reigning title holders have not lost any of their 21 home games against the SCF, have only lost one of their last 36 encounters in the top flight against their upcoming opponents and have conceded just one measly point in their last 17 meetings at the Allianz Arena.
Moreover, it is always worth looking at the impressive offensive output. Never before has a team scored as many goals after ten matchdays as coach Julian Nagelsmann’s team. A total of 38 goals, 14 of them in the last three Bundesliga games, underline the incredible quality of their forward play. It is hard to imagine that the visitors from Breisgau will be able to withstand the pressure for the entire match.
Will the record champions take an early lead again?
In our opinion, it is even likely that the Munich team will again lay the foundation for their ninth win of the season in the first 45 minutes. In seven of their eight Bundesliga victories so far, Lewandowski and Co. have already led at the break. Across all competitions, betting on double the result would have paid off in favour of the FCB in twelve of the 14 full victories.
Although the odds on HT1/FT1 are not particularly high on Saturday’s match between Bayern and Freiburg, we would still bet on a start-finish victory for the favourites. Apart from substitute keeper Sven Ulreich, all men are probably on board. However, the rotation will not be so extreme in the last game before the international break and in view of the top match character.
Predicted line-up of Bayern:
Neuer – Süle, Upamecano, Hernandez – Kimmich, Goretzka – Coman, T. Müller, L. Sané, Davies – Lewandowski
Last matches played by Bayern:
Champions League Grp. E
11/02 2021 – Bayern Munich 5 – 2 Benfica
1st Bundesliga
10/30 2021 – Union Berlin 2 – 5 Bayern Munich
DFB Cup
10/27 2021 – Borussia Mönchengladbach 5 – 0 Bayern Munich
1st Bundesliga
10/23 2021 – Bayern Munich 4 – 0 Hoffenheim
Champions League Grp. E
10/20 2021 – Benfica 0 – 4 Bayern Munich
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
We are almost running out of superlatives at SC Freiburg at the moment. After ten matchdays, the Breisgauer are still unbeaten in the top flight. Six victories are offset by four point-splits. As third in the standings, the Black Forest side has already extended a six-point lead to fifth place. A return to the European Cup in 2021/22 is definitely within the realm of possibility. Even the Champions League does not seem to be a utopian goal.
Coach Christian Streich’s team owes its best start to the season in the history of the Bundesliga in particular to its great defensive performance. Keeper Mark Flekken has only had to make seven saves so far. The only time the third-placed team conceded more than one goal was in the 3-2 away win in Stuttgart. Four clean sheets round off the enormous stability in the game against the ball.
Are the Freiburgers ready for a top match at eye level?
The surprise team is not lacking in self-confidence either. 13 points from the past five Bundesliga games ensure that no other team is currently in better form than the men from the Dreisam.
It is therefore quite understandable that many experts see the most attractive value between Bayern and Freiburg in the odds on the surprise coup in the form of a double X2 chance. The bottom line, however, is that we still do not trust the underdogs to win a point on Saturday afternoon.
Possibly this is also due to the fact that Freiburg have never won away at a league leader in their Bundesliga history. The pressure also plays a role, because even if SCF can actually play quite freely, Günter, Eggestein, Lienhart, Grifo and Co. are not used to playing a real top game in everyday league life. The chance to draw level with the record champions in terms of points after eleven match days can also lead to paralysis and inhibition under certain circumstances. Ezekwem, Sallai, Petersen and Schmid are not available due to injury.
Predicted line-up of Freiburg:
Flekken – Gulde, Lienhart, N. Schlotterbeck – Kübler, M. Eggestein, Höfler, Günter – Schade, Grifo – Höler
Last matches played by Freiburg:
1st Bundesliga
10/30 2021 – SC Freiburg 3 – 1 Greuther Fürth
DFB Cup
10/26 2021 – Osnabrück (2)2 – 2(3) SC Freiburg
1st Bundesliga
10/23 2021 – Vfl Wolfsburg 0 – 2 SC Freiburg
10/16 2021 – SC Freiburg 1 – 1 RB Leipzig
Club friendlies
10/07 2021 – SC Freiburg 3 – 0 St. Pauli
Bayern – Freiburg Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
We have already gone into detail about the direct comparison between these two teams. The bottom line is that Bayern have won 29 of their 42 Bundesliga matches. Freiburg celebrated only four victories, the last one in the 33rd matchday of the 2014/2015 season. In Munich, on the other hand, there have been 16 FCB victories and one draw in the past 17 duels.
Interesting: In four of the last five guest games at the Allianz Arena, however, the Breisgauer have at least always managed to score, which is why a prediction on a home win with goals on both sides seems to be a good compromise between Bayern and Freiburg.
Bayern – Freiburg Tip
The top match of the 11th matchday in the Bundesliga takes place on Saturday afternoon at the Allianz Arena. The leaders from Munich will meet the third-placed team from Dreisam. For the first time ever, both teams are in the top three of the standings before the direct duel.
This, however, does not change the fact that far lower betting odds are offered on a home win between Bayern and Freiburg. The bookmakers see the record champions as the clear favourites and are convinced that Nagelsmann’s side, who have scored ten goals in two games since their embarrassing defeat in the DFB Pokal, will inflict their first defeat of the season on the visitors from Breisgau.
We agree with this assessment and, ahead of the Bayern vs. Freiburg match, play the tip on the double result in favour of the home side. The FCB have won 16 of their last 17 home games against the SCF, led at the break in seven of their eight Bundesliga wins in 2021/22 and are in absolutely impressive form, especially offensively. In our eyes, it is therefore hard to imagine that the underdogs will keep things tight for even 45 minutes.
At Betway, we get a 1.57 at the top for the HT1/FT1, which we confidently play with seven units. If you want to take the Streich eleven’s best start to the season into account a little more in your bet, you can go for the FCB home win with goals on both sides.
