Will Bayern finally clinch the championship in the classic against BVB?

For the first time in 14 years, FC Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund will meet in the second half of the Bundesliga without either team leading the table. The last time this was the case was in 2009/10, when the record champions in second place defeated the fifth-placed team from the Ruhr region 3:1 in their own stadium.

Incidentally, Bayer Leverkusen also led the standings back then, but were caught by FCB. In 2023/24, however, the men from Säbener Straße are no longer in a position to dream of a twelfth (!) championship in a row, as no team in the German top flight has ever managed to close a ten-point gap on the leaders over the remaining eight matchdays. Ahead of the match between Bayern and Dortmund, it is definitely reasonable to predict that the trophy will not be presented to the fans at Marienplatz or Borsigplatz for the first time since 2008/09 (Wolfsburg)!

Notwithstanding the fact that the clubs cannot afford to slip up in terms of their own goals for the season, the term “classic” is absolutely appropriate for this fixture. After all, this is the 135th meeting since the Bundesliga was founded. No other match in German professional soccer has taken place more often. BVB have conceded more defeats against FCB than any other team – but the same applies to Munich, who have nevertheless suffered less than half as many defeats against their long-standing arch-rivals

On Saturday evening, however, the cards will be reshuffled, so that numerous aspects must be explained and many factors analyzed and weighted with regard to the Bayern vs. Former world and European champion Jürgen Kohler, who became German champion with both teams and even won the Henkelpott with BVB in 1997, sees who is ahead in this duel of giants

Bayern – statistics & current form

Bayern’s desperate battle to make the race for the German championship exciting after all enters the next round on Saturday evening. While the Munich side have had to reproach themselves for dropping far too many points in the meantime, the form barometer has been clearly pointing upwards again in recent weeks. Starting with the 3:0 victory in the second leg of the Champions League round of 16 against Lazio Roma, the team of outgoing coach Thomas Tuchel celebrated three competitive wins in a row, in which a total of 16 (!) goals were scored. Mainz were shot out of the Allianz Arena with an 8:1 victory and Darmstadt were beaten 5:2.

However, the truth is that the club’s defense is still not up to the highest standards. Twelve goals conceded in the last six Bundesliga matchdays are impressive proof of this, as are the eight consecutive league games in which Manuel Neuer, who will have to deputize for Sven Ulreich at the weekend due to injury, has been unable to keep a clean sheet

Is Harry Kane playing or not?

A good compromise in this context could be to bet on two or more goals in the first 45 minutes. For one thing, no other Bundesliga team has scored more goals before the break than FCB (32). Secondly, in six of the last eight Bundesliga matches involving the men from Bavaria, a corresponding bet on over 1.5 (1st half) would have gone through. The maximum odds for this are 1.80 and are therefore far more attractive than the quotes for the Over 3.5 for the entire match.

Despite the completely atypical fluctuations in performance and the sobering season, which could only be saved by a Champions League triumph, we share the bookmakers’ view that Bayern are ahead against Dortmund according to the odds on the three-way market. In addition to the strong home record with eleven wins in 13 attempts (11-1-1) and the fact that the season-table champions have by far the best offense in the league (78 goals), it should be noted that the current second-placed team has won all of its last nine (!) Bundesliga home games against BVB.

Only in terms of personnel are there still a few worry lines that Thomas Tuchel has to deal with. For example, there is still a small question mark over Harry Kane, who did not feature for England during the international break but has recently returned to training and, in our view, is very likely to start. Kane scored three goals in the 4-0 win in the first leg. We believe that the Bundesliga’s top scorer with 31 goals will open the scoring this time too. Should the captain of the Three Lions score the 1:0 on Saturday evening at the Allianz Arena, a proud 3.90 at the top odds at Interwetten beckons.

Predicted Bayern line-up:

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

The weeks of truth lie ahead for Dortmund. In the UEFA Champions League, the Black & Yellows want to continue their run of success in the quarter-finals against Atletico Madrid and in the Bundesliga, they want to cement fourth place, which leads to automatic CL qualification for the coming season. However, the latter task is likely to prove particularly difficult, as BVB are currently just one point ahead of RB Leipzig and have to play four of their upcoming five league games against Bayern, Stuttgart, Leverkusen and RB Leipzig.

Coach Edin Terzic’s side have had little reason to celebrate this season, especially against the league’s top teams. In fact, Borussia have not won a single game against the other four clubs in the top five this season, picking up just one point out of a possible twelve. In addition, they have conceded ten goals in these four games, which can be seen as an additional argument for the record champions’ role as favorites at the Allianz Arena on Saturday evening

Dortmund travel to Munich with confidence

Despite the justified criticism of their inconsistent performances and the points they gave away too easily in the first half of the season, Dortmund are currently in good form. The Black & Yellows have won all of their last four competitive matches. The last time BVB recorded more than four wins in a row was over a year ago, from January to March 2023. The away statistics are also impressive, as the reigning runners-up have not lost any of their last eight matches away from home in all competitions. The last time Borussia had a longer run of this kind was under Thomas Tuchel.

In terms of personnel, coach Edin Terzic can almost draw on a full squad. Only the injured Bensebaini and the suspended Sabitzer will have to miss out. Kobel is likely to return between the posts and Jadon Sancho is also fit following his muscle injury. Meanwhile, attacking hopes will once again rest on Donyell Malen and Niclas Füllkrug, who have scored eleven goals each this season. Dutchman Malen has been involved in five goals in his last five Bundesliga games and is currently BVB’s most in-form player. Almost four times the stake can be dusted off for a goal scored by the winger.

Predicted Dortmund line-up:

Bayern – Dortmund Direct comparison / H2H balance

We have already discussed the long and remarkable tradition of this classic. In the recent past, however, the pendulum between the two best German club teams of the last two decades has mostly swung in Bayern’s favor. Borussia Dortmund have not won any of their last eleven competitive matches against FCB. Ten of these eleven matches were lost.

In the Bundesliga, the Black & Yellows also suffered nine (!) consecutive away defeats at the Allianz Arena. Not infrequently, these were even very heavy defeats. BVB have lost by more than one goal in Munich eight times in a row, with the Ruhr Valley club always conceding at least three goals. This was also the case in the first leg, which FC Bayern won 4:0 at Signal Iduna Park. The outstanding man on the pitch was Harry Kane with three goals. The record champions were already leading 2:0 at the break

Bayern – Dortmund betting tip

The classic once again electrifies the masses this weekend. Although FC Bayern and Borussia Dortmund, unlike in the previous season, are not in a direct duel for the championship, the clash is of course always particularly explosive. Will BVB, of all teams, provide the final preliminary decision in the championship race at the Allianz Arena or will Munich put a severe damper on their long-term rivals in terms of Champions League qualification?

At the moment, there are more indications that coach Thomas Tuchel’s charges will live up to their role as favorites on Saturday evening. After some interim difficulties, Kane and Co. have recently taken their frustration out of the equation, scoring 16 goals in their last three competitive matches and also continuing to enjoy a great home record. The impressive run against BVB must also be mentioned. FCB have won ten of their last eleven competitive matches against Borussia. There have been nine BL victories in a row at home, the last eight of which have always been by at least a two-goal margin

Although Terzic’s team has recently delivered decent results and also remained unbeaten eight times in a row away from home, we see advantages for the hosts and therefore recommend the bet on the double result HT1/FT1 between Bayern and Dortmund. We therefore believe that Munich, like in the first leg, will lead at the break and retain the upper hand in the end. Oddset is offering a 2.00 at the top