After the top flight now back to everyday life
For the first time in many years, Bayern Munich are back in an intense title race in the Bundesliga. The German record champion can therefore not afford to focus only on the Champions League and the DFB Cup, because things are running on their own in the championship. On Saturday, Julian Nagelsmann’s eleven still has a bone to pick after the defeat in the first leg of the Bavarian derby, so between Bayern and Augsburg, we assume in our tip that it could be a painful afternoon for the visitors.
The fact that the Fuggerstädter won at all against the Munich side in mid-September was already a sensation. According to the betting provider Bet3000, FC Augsburg had a win probability of just seven per cent at the time. At that time, FCA also had its back against the wall in sporting terms. In the meantime, the situation has improved considerably for Enrico Maassen’s team.
After all, Augsburg have 27 points after 13 games, giving them an eight-point lead over the relegation places for the first time this season. If they continue to collect the points in their own arena, the Bavarian Swabians will have nothing to do with the relegation battle. However, we do not expect the cushion to increase on this matchday, as between FC Bayern and FC Augsburg our prediction clearly goes to a home win.
The German record champions need every point to avoid losing the title race. At the moment, 49 points are on the books, the same as for the first-placed Dortmund team. It could get very exciting in the coming weeks. The advantage for Bayern: They can take the lead on Saturday and put their opponents under pressure before the Revier derby. Nothing else will be the goal.
Bayern – statistics & current form
Julian Nagelsmann’s past at Augsburg is largely known. Perhaps it is because he knows the club and its structures well that he has not recorded more victories against any other club in his coaching career. He has twelve victories against FCA in all competitions. However, he has also already lost two games against the Fuggerstädter.
The Bavarians always score – almost always
Among other things, the Munich side conceded their first defeat of the season in the first leg and even went without a goal of their own in the 0:1 loss. That basically never happens to the record champions, as Bayern have also scored a goal in 103 of their last 104 games. This season they have shown themselves to be particularly accurate in the quarter of an hour before half-time and have already scored a staggering 23 goals in this period in the Bundesliga this year. You might want to keep an eye on the odds for a goal just before the break in the Bayern-Augsburg encounter.
If Julian Nagelsmann wants to celebrate a win on Saturday, he basically only needs to rely on the services of Kingsley Coman. The Frenchman has played in 16 games in the Bundesliga this season and has not lost a game. The track player was absent for the two defeats at Augsburg and Gladbach. It is quite conceivable, however, that he will fall victim to the rotation on Saturday.
On Wednesday, the Bavarians had to play the second leg of the round of sixteen in the royal class at home against Paris Saint-Germain. They showed that anything is possible for them this season. After the 1-0 win in Paris, Bayern won 2-0 after goals from Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting and Serge Gnabry in a match that was commanding for long stretches and now awaits their opponent in the quarter-finals. However, the English week may have left its mark in terms of freshness.
Last matches of Bayern:
Champions League Final
09/03/2023 – Bayern Munich 2 – 0 Paris Saint-Germain
Bundesliga
05/03/2023 – VfB Stuttgart 1 – 2 Bayern Munich
26/02/2023 – Bayern Munich 3 – 0 Union Berlin
18/02/2023 – Gladbach 3 – 2 Bayern Munich
Champions League Final
15/02/2023 – Paris Saint-Germain 0 – 1 Bayern Munich
Augsburg – Statistics & current form
Augsburg FC is already a phenomenon in the Bundesliga. Actually, it’s unbelievable that the Bavarian Swabians have managed to stay in the Bundesliga against all odds. Even when things look like they are in dire straits at times, FCA always extricate themselves from these dangerous situations. And so it has been again this season.
Away not much goes
With a great series, the Fuggerstädter have fought their way out of the lower regions of the standings, although this good form is only shown in their own stadium, because there Enrico Maaßen’s team picked up four wins in the last four games. However, it looks the other way round away from home. FCA did not pick up a single point from the last four away games. Even though it was dramatic in the 3:4 in Dortmund, for example, we would now make a prediction for a clear victory for the hosts between Bayern and Augsburg.
Of course, it was terrific that the Fuggerstädter won the first leg against the Munich side, but a defeat always spurs the Bavarians on to a special degree. Since the 2011/12 season, the record champions have not lost both games against a club in the Bundesliga. So it sounds as if the Bavarian Swabians could get a maximum of one point in the best possible match.
Last week, Werder Bremen visited Augsburg and, as expected, the Puppenspieler extended their home streak. After just five minutes, the young Croatian Dion Beljo scored his first Bundesliga goal to give FCA an early lead. Werder Bremen had an answer ready and equalised, but it was up to Arne Maier to score the 2-1 winner directly after the break.
Last games of Augsburg:
Bundesliga
04/03/2023 – Augsburg 2 – 1 Werder Bremen
25/02/2023 – Hertha BSC 2 – 0 Augsburg
18/02/2023 – Augsburg 1 – 0 Hoffenheim
11/02/2023 – Mainz 05 3 – 1 Augsburg
04/02/2023 – Augsburg 1 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen
Bayern – Augsburg Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Bayern München and FC Augsburg were long-time companions in the Oberliga Süd before the introduction of the Bundesliga. After that, however, they parted ways for many years before the Fuggerstädter established themselves in the German top flight since 2011. There are now 57 direct duels between the two clubs in the books. The direct comparison is clearly in favour of FC Bayern, with 39:12 wins and six draws.
We discussed the 1-0 first-leg victory of the Fuggerstädter. However, just over a month later, Bayern had the chance to take revenge and did so mercilessly in the DFB Cup. In mid-October, the Munich team won 5:2 in the WWK-Arena in what was their last direct encounter to date. Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting in particular put his stamp on the game with a brace and, statistically speaking, now scores pretty much once per game for FC Bayern.
Bayern – Augsburg Tip
For FC Augsburg, the short trip to the Bavarian capital is primarily associated with the hope of ending their away misery. It should be clear to the Fuggerstädtern that the prospects for this are rather modest at the top of the league, of all places, but even in the first leg, one could not necessarily expect a victory for the Augsburgers and yet it was enough for a 1:0 against the record champions.
In the meantime, however, FCA have lost four away games in a row and Bayern have nothing to give away in the Bundesliga. With a win, the English week could be refined and the pressure on the competition from Dortmund could be increased.
This match offers many possibilities to place a suitable bet. We are taking a special approach today. Bayern have scored 23 Bundesliga goals in the quarter-hour before the break this year. This is the period in which perhaps the first physical discomfort appears in the opponent, after the Munich team has gradually increased the pressure beforehand. That’s why we’ve decided to play the betting odds between Bayern and Augsburg on a goal, preferably for FCA, in the quarter of an hour before the break.
