Can Wolfsburg pull off the big upset?
On Thursday, the second leg of the Women’s Champions League between FC Barcelona and VfL Wolfsburg will take place. The Wolfsburg women face a real mammoth task, because after the 1-4 defeat in the first leg, their chances of reaching the semi-finals are slim. For this reason, the Barcelona v Wolfsburg women odds of German betting providers are more than clearly in favor of a home win. Even at Bwin, which currently offers the highest odds, we will only get 1.07 times our stake back in the event of a win.
In our Barcelona v Wolfsburg Women prediction, we therefore go into the smallest detail in order to still find a suitable bet with plenty of value for you. To do that, we first take a closer look at the home and away records of the two teams. This already gives us a very clear picture, because while FCB averages 2.65 points per game in their own stadium, Wolfsburg only averages 1.75 points per game away from home. In addition, the guests have only won 56% of competitive matches played away from home.
The comparison of form is similarly clear, because while the away team has only won two of the last six games, the Spanish team have only lost three points in the last eleven competitive games. So early on in our analysis, we don’t seem to be able to get past the Barcelona vs. In any case, the signs point to many goals, which is why the odds from NEO.Bet come into question.
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
Barcelona have had an almost perfect season so far, losing only three competitive games across all competitions. It is therefore no surprise that Pere Romeu’s team leads the Spanish top flight, is in the Copa de SM La Reina cup final and already has one foot in the Champions League semi-finals. The Spanish team has also already secured the Spanish Super Cup, so it could be another trophy-laden year for them. It’s not for nothing that FCB is the ultimate in women’s soccer.
Barcelona has the best offense in the world
With 148 goals in 236 competitive games (Ø 4.11) across all competitions, the hosts have the best offense in the world. It is therefore no surprise that Pere Romeu’s team have only been without a goal of their own once this season, finding the way into the opposing goal in 97% of games. At home, the rate is even better at 100% – an incredibly good result. This is not a good sign for the Wolves, of course, because as soon as the Spanish team scores a single goal, the visitors will need at least four goals to win.
Barcelona Femení with minimal weakness
But Barcelona are not invincible, because their defense has not been working perfectly this season. This was also evident in the 3-1 defeat last weekend against Real Madrid. It is therefore no wonder that Pere Romeu’s team have conceded in 47% of competitive matches. In their own stadium, the rate is even 59%, which is considerably worse. So if VfL Wolfsburg manages to overcome the Spanish team’s defense early on, then maybe even a comeback could begin.
Predicted Barcelona line-up:
Coll – Fernandez, Paredes, Leon, Brugts – Putellas, Guijarro, Bonmati – Paralluelo, Pajor, Hansen
Wolfsburg – Statistics & Current Form
Wolfsburg have every reason to be dissatisfied with their performance so far this season. Tommy Stroot’s team are only third in the Bundesliga and already have six fewer points than Bayern Munich. Wolfsburg have also already been knocked out of the DFB Cup by TSG 1899 Hoffenheim in the quarter-finals. This means that the only chance they have of winning a title is the Champions League. However, after losing 4-1 on aggregate to FC Barcelona, their chances of winning the title are hanging by a thread. Can Wolfsburg pull off an upset after all?
Wolfsburg can still cause a stir in offense
With 81 goals in 30 games (Ø 2.87), Wolfsburg’s offense is not nearly as dangerous as Barcelona’s, but it is still dangerous. However, Tommy Stroot’s team have still kept eight clean sheets, meaning they have found the back of the net in just 73% of competitive matches. Away from home, their scoring rate is even worse at just 63%. Going into the game against FC Barcelona, this is obviously a bad omen and reduces their chances of winning to a minimum. However, the visitors will certainly not give up.
Wolfsburg will concede a goal
On paper, the Wolfsburg defense also seems to be doing quite well, with 26 goals conceded in 30 competitive games (Ø 0.87), the back four seems quite stable. Nevertheless, Tommy Stroot’s team conceded at least one goal in 50% of the games and thus rarely kept a clean sheet. Especially against the big teams like Bayern Munich, Lyon or Barcelona, the lack of quality became obvious. In the upcoming duel between Barcelona and Wolfsburg, a prediction of a clean sheet against the supposedly best offense in the world seems completely unrealistic.
Provisional line-up for Wolfsburg:
Borbe – Linder, Wilms, Dijkstra, Minge, Wedemeyer – Huth, Lattwein – Beerensteyn, Popp, Brand
Barcelona – Wolfsburg Women Head-to-head / H2H record
In the analysis so far, there is no way around a win for the hosts, because currently not a single fact speaks against the Spanish team. However, this changes in the direct comparison, because here the Wolfsburg team is ahead and has won four of the seven duels so far. In addition, the FCB has not kept a clean sheet a single time, so there is at least a small spark of hope for the away team. For us, it is therefore not entirely understandable why the Barcelona v Wolfsburg betting odds for “both teams to score” are so high.
Barcelona – Wolfsburg Women Betting Tip
In summary of all the facts mentioned, almost everything points to a victory for the home team. However, the odds are distributed accordingly, so that the Barcelona vs. Wolfsburg women’s betting tip for a home win has no value. For this reason, we decided to bet on over 3.5 goals in the game. The reasons for this are obvious, because the strengths of both teams clearly lie in offense. In addition, five goals were scored in each of the last two matches, so even the line of “over 4.5” goals would still be interesting.
If you want to take a little more risk, you can also add the Barcelona v Wolfsburg women’s odds for “both teams to score – yes” to your betting slip. A goal from the home side is as good as carved in stone and should not be an obstacle. However, a goal from Wolfsburg is also not unlikely, as FCB have not kept a clean sheet in the past seven meetings.
