A test of patience awaits Barca
At FC Barcelona, the tree is already on fire just two months before Christmas. After the two matches in the Champions League against Inter Milan, the premature exit from the top flight can hardly be averted. In addition, the Catalans lost the prestigious Clásico against Real Madrid at the weekend and thus also had to relinquish the lead in La Liga to their arch-rivals.
At least the fact that coach Xavi’s team has no time to complain is encouraging. The next regular league match is already scheduled for Thursday. At the Camp Nou, it will be a clash between Barcelona and Villarreal. A successful bet on the star ensemble from the metropolis of millions is considered far more likely than a surprise coup by last year’s CL semi-finalists.
Caution should nevertheless be exercised from the point of view of the favoured hosts, especially as the visitors currently have the most stable defence in the Spanish top flight. The seventh-placed team in the table has only conceded three goals. With this in mind, it may make sense to combine an expected home win for Barca with a sub-par bet to pick up increased odds between Barcelona and Villarreal.
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
For much of the season so far, FC Barcelona looked like they could return to their old strength. Recent impressions, however, have cast doubts. The Catalans have not been able to win any of the top matches so far. Against FC Bayern, Real Madrid and twice against Inter Milan, they only managed a disappointing point. Coach Xavi’s team seems to need more time.
In order to avoid a lasting downward spiral after last Wednesday’s 3-3 draw with Inter Milan and the 3-1 defeat at Real Madrid, it will be of immense importance to get back on track on Thursday. Between Barcelona and Villarreal, a prediction of a home win is quite close given their recent league performances in front of a home crowd.
Barcelona look to put last week(s) setbacks behind them
Robert Lewandowski and Co. won all of their last three home games in La Liga. The FCB recorded ten points from a total of four games at the Camp Nou. Keeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen always kept a clean sheet. In general, the German goalkeeper kept his clean sheet in seven of the nine games in the Spanish top flight. In six of the seven victories at national level, the bet on the under 4.5 would have gone through, including all three home trebles.
These figures now result in various betting approaches that come into question for the match on Thursday evening. It is conceivable, for example, that the Blue and Reds will win for the fourth time in a row in La Liga at home including Clean Sheet.
Ronald Araujo, Memphis Depay and Andreas Christensen continue to miss out through injury. Changes in the starting eleven compared to the aforementioned Clásico defeat against Real Madrid are definitely to be expected. Ansu Fati or Gerard Pique can hope for a starting appearance. Meanwhile, Xavi will not be without goal-scorer Lewandowski, even though the Pole has been without a goal in two consecutive league games for the first time in a Barca shirt.
Predicted Barcelona line-up:
Ter Stegen; Alba, Garcia, Kounde, Roberto; Pedri, Busquets, Gavi; Fati, Lewandowski, Torres
Last matches played by Barcelona:
La Liga
16/10/2022 – Real Madrid 3 – 1 FC Barcelona
Champions League Grp. C
13/10/2022 – FC Barcelona 3 – 3 Inter Milan
La Liga
10/10/2022 – FC Barcelona 1 – 0 Celta Vigo
Champions League Grp. C
05/10/2022 – Inter Milan 1 – 0 FC Barcelona
La Liga
02/10/2022 – Mallorca 0 – 1 FC Barcelona
Villarreal – Statistics & current form
Villarreal had to wait four league games in a row for a sense of achievement. On Monday evening, the time had finally come. Thanks to a deserved 2-0 home win over Osasuna, the “yellow submarine” recorded its fourth win of the season at the ninth attempt and moved up to seventh place in the table.
In two-thirds of all La Liga games (six out of nine), the last year’s CL semi-finalists, who already drove some of the top teams to the wall in the top flight with an extremely defensive and compact approach, kept a clean sheet.
Villarreal are clearly coming through working against the ball
In total, coach Unai Emery’s team has only conceded three goals, more than any other club in Spain’s top flight. In only two of the nine matches mentioned above would a bet have gone through on the over 2.5, which should make it clear why we prefer a prediction on rather few goals in the course of the match between Barcelona and Villarreal. More than four goals have not been scored in Villarreal’s encounters at national level in 2022/23.
However, we have to take the wind out of the sails of Real Madrid fans who are hoping that Emery’s team can take points away from their hottest rivals for the Spanish championship, because the club from the province of Castellón has only been able to attract a limited amount of attention away from home so far this season. With two wins, two draws and two defeats, their record away from home is balanced. Only five goals have been scored in opposing stadiums. Ten of the past eleven matches at the Camp Nou were lost.
Gerard Moreno, Juan Foyth and Francis Coquelin are all out injured. On the other hand, former Liverpool player Alberto Moreno made an emotional comeback on Monday evening, returning to the pitch after a seven-month break and could also be an option from the bench on Thursday. It will also be interesting to see if veteran Morales finally gets his chance from the start in the league. In the Conference League, the 35-year-old oldie has already scored four goals in the first four matchdays. And offensively, the “yellow submarine” lacks penetrating power anyway.
Predicted Villarreal line-up:
Rulli; Pedraza, Torres, Albiol, Femenia; Parejo, Capoue, Lo Celso; Morales, Danjuma, Baena
Last matches played by Villarreal:
La Liga
18/10/2022 – Villarreal FC 2 – 0 Osasuna Pamplona
Europa Conference League Grp. C
13/10/2022 – Austria Wien 0 – 1 FC Villarreal
La Liga
09/10/2022 – Real Sociedad 1 – 0 FC Villarreal
Europa Conference League Grp. C
07/10/2022 – FC Villarreal 5 – 0 Austria Wien
La Liga
01/10/2022 – Cadiz 0 – 0 FC Villarreal
Barcelona – Villarreal Direct comparison / H2H balance
FC Barcelona have won 26 of their 44 meetings in the Spanish top flight against Villarreal. This compares to nine draws and nine defeats. One of these defeats came at home in pre-season, when the “yellow submarine” won 2-0 at Camp Nou after ten consecutive defeats.
Only in four of the past 14 direct duels would a bet on the over 4.5 have gone through. Eight of Barca’s last twelve wins against their upcoming opponents have come by a maximum of four goals, adding to the importance of the odds on a corresponding bet for the upcoming Barcelona vs Villarreal encounter.
Barcelona – Villarreal betting tips
The tenth matchday in Spain’s La Liga will be completed on Thursday evening with the match Barcelona vs. Villarreal, among others. Betting odds of 1.55 on a home win underline the clear role of favourites for the runners-up in the table, who have won ten of their last eleven home games against opponents from the province of Castellón, but have recently suffered bitter setbacks against Inter Milan and Real Madrid.
In front of their home crowd, however, we expect Lewandowski and Co. to get back on track and record their fourth home win in a row at national level. It is quite possible that keeper ter Stegen will also go without conceding a goal for the fourth time in a row at the Camp Nou in the league, as the national goalkeeper has kept his clean sheet in seven of the nine games so far.
In view of the previously quoted figures, however, we have decided to place our bets between Barcelona and Villarreal on a home win in combination with a maximum of four goals in the course of the match.
