Will Barca overrun the promoted team?
Attractive and challenging at the same time. That is how FC Barcelona’s Champions League group can be succinctly characterised. With FC Bayern and Inter Milan, there are two other clubs who have aspirations of reaching the last 16. Only underdog Viktoria Pilsen is likely to be a points supplier.
But before Catalonia can look forward to their first competitive matches on the international stage, they first have to solve their La Liga tasks. In the third matchday, the Xavi eleven will face a promoted team. Consequently, the odds offered on a home win before the clash between Barcelona and Real Valladolid are negligible. The maximum odds of 1.15 imply a probability of 85%.
However, these one-sided quotes should be taken with a grain of salt, as Barca went into their home game against Rayo Vallecano as heavy favourites on matchday one and had to settle for a meagre 0-0 draw. Apart from that, the second-placed team of the past La Liga 2 season has been particularly convincing defensively so far. It might even make sense to predict between Barcelona and Real Valladolid that Lewandowski and Co. will once again need patience to steer the match in their own direction.
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
FC Barcelona have shown two very different faces in the two league games they have played so far. While the Blaugrana found it extremely difficult to create any top-class chances at home against Rayo Vallecano in the opening game, only briefly celebrating a goal that was not given for offside and ultimately having to live with a 0-0 draw, the away game at Real Sociedad last weekend went in the right direction from the start.
Although Alexander Ishak, who has since moved to Newcastle United for 70 million, was able to equalise Robert Lewandowski’s early opening goal after just six minutes, the Catalans had their Basque opponents on the hook by the second period at the latest. Three goals in less than 15 minutes gave the Blue and Reds their first win of the season, but the score was far too high at 4:1
Next test of patience for Lewy and Barca?
During the week, coach Xavi’s side were finally in action against Manchester City in a friendly for charity, and they were also convincing offensively. However, three goals of their own were not enough to leave the pitch as winners against the Citizens. In the end, the score was 3:3. Nevertheless, the decent performance was another argument for the bookmakers to offer very low odds on a high home win for the upcoming match Barcelona vs. Real Valladolid.
However, we do not see the starting position as clear-cut, as the promoted team is an opponent who will be tight at the back and defend compactly. In the recent past, it was not uncommon for the Catalans to lack determination in their attacking play, especially in tight spaces.
We therefore do not rule out that the title contenders in La Liga will once again have to exercise patience and only find sufficient solutions with the ball in the second half. The betting on a maximum of one goal in the first 45 minutes between Barcelona and Real Valladolid is therefore interesting. For Frenkie de Jong, who is now being linked with Liverpool, Busquets could make his comeback after serving his suspension. Jules Kounde is also set to make his Barca debut. According to media reports, his registration with the federation has finally worked.
Predicted line-up of Barcelona:
Ter Stegen; Araujo, Christensen, Garcia, Alba; Gavi, Busquets, Pedri; Dembele, Lewandowski, Raphinha
Last matches played by Barcelona:
Friendly club matches
25/08/2022 – FC Barcelona 3 – 3 Manchester City
La Liga
22/08/2022 – Real Sociedad 1 – 4 FC Barcelona
14/08/2022 – FC Barcelona 0 – 0 Rayo Vallecano
Club friendlies
08/08/2022 – FC Barcelona 6 – 0 Club Universidad Nacional
31/07/2022 – Red Bull New York 0 – 2 FC Barcelona
Real Valladolid – Statistics & current form
There will also be a real world star in the stands at the Camp Nou on Sunday evening. The talk is of Ronaldo. The former world-class striker, who played in several Clásicos during his successful career in the Real Madrid jersey, is the main owner of the Spanish first division club Real Valladolid. The Brazilian owns 51% of the club, which means he can also claim to have been responsible for the club’s promotion in 2021/22.
After only one season in La Liga 2, the “Pucelanos” are back in the top flight. There, however, they have to be treated as one of the most glaring outsiders. Right from the start, the aim will be to score as many points as possible as quickly as possible in the fight to stay in the league. At best, it should not be about the individual quality of individual players, but about a unified team performance as well as a stable defence.
How long can the Albivioletas keep the game open?
Exactly the last two qualities were impressively demonstrated by coach Pacheta’s team in the previous week. Against Dortmund’s CL opponents Sevilla, the promoted team fought their way to a respectable 1-1 draw. Until four minutes before the end of the game, the team from the region of Castilla y León was even 1:0 ahead, but after conceding a late goal, they missed the first three points of the still young season. By the way, the team had lost 3-0 at home to Villarreal at the start of the season.
Nevertheless, it is striking that all four goals conceded so far have come after the break. Over 45 minutes, the Violet-Whites are quite capable of building up their own defensive bulwark. Because the coaching team knows exactly what to expect on Sunday, they will come up with some defensive plans that are primarily aimed at not conceding an early goal. Early on, the outsiders will therefore take the tempo out of the game, concentrate on defending and try to disrupt the flow of the game with (semi-)legal means. Given this approach, we wouldn’t be surprised if a prediction of few goals in the first half pays off between Barcelona and Real Valladolid.
Predicted Real Valladolid line-up:
Asenjo; L Perez, Sanchez, Fernandez, Escudero; Aguado, Mesa, K Perez; Tuhami, Leon, Sanchez
Last matches played by Real Valladolid:
La Liga
20/08/2022 – Sevilla FC 1 – 1 Real Valladolid
13/08/2022 – Real Valladolid 0 – 3 FC Villarreal
Friendly club matches
07/08/2022 – Real Valladolid 0 – 0 Lazio Roma
05/08/2022 – Rayo Vallecano 0 – 0 Real Valladolid
30/07/2022 – Brest 0 – 0 Real Valladolid
Barcelona – Real Valladolid Direct comparison / H2H record
This is the 91st time these clubs have met in Spain’s top football league. With 60 wins, 16 draws and 14 defeats, the Catalans are the clear leaders in the direct comparison. Especially in front of their home crowd, the visitors have rarely been able to win anything. There have been two measly away victories in a historic 37 attempts.
In the last joint first division season in 2020/21, Barca also had a harder time at home against the outsiders than expected. After a goalless 89 minutes, Ousmane Dembele redeemed the favourites with a 1-0 winner in the last minute of the game. Also interesting: In five of the past six head-to-head clashes, Valladolid have always gone without a goal of their own.
Barcelona – Real Valladolid bet
The starting position before the La Liga match could hardly be clearer. Title co-favourites Barcelona meet one of the hottest relegation candidates Real Valladolid. Anything other than a commanding home victory would already be a surprise. But watch out: The promoted team earned a point in Sevilla the previous week and Barca also dropped points in their only home game to date.
Although we are far from playing the immensely high betting odds on a sensational coup by the underdog between Barcelona and Real Valladolid, we can well imagine that the Blaugrana might need some start-up time again. Especially, of course, against a very deep and passionately defending opponent.
In our opinion, it therefore makes more sense to refrain from betting on a handicap and instead place a bet between Barcelona and Real Valladolid that a maximum of one goal will be scored in the first half.
If you want to take even more of a risk, you can find a whopping 4.20 as top odds for the double result HTX/FT1. In this case, it should still be a draw at the break before Lewandowski and Co. live up to their role as favourites in the second round.
