Will Barca take an important step towards the double?
Almost exactly two years ago, the “Superliga” project was initiated by leading football clubs from Europe. The plan was to create an elite competition that would provide absolute top matches week after week. Nevertheless, the participating clubs were to remain in their leagues. However, due to fierce fan protests, the plan was quickly discarded or postponed anyway.
Why do we need a Super League that is primarily for commercial purposes when the national competitions already regularly bring highlights? The Spanish “Clásico”, for example, will take place on Wednesday evening for the fifth and definitely last time this season.
At the Camp Nou, the heavyweights will duel for a place in the Copa del Rey final. Before the kick-off of Barcelona against Real Madrid, the prediction of the Catalans advancing seems obvious at the moment.
This assessment by the bookmakers, who are now also increasingly relying on betting apps for smartphones, is of course primarily based on the fact that coach Xavi’s team won the first leg in the Spanish capital 1-0 and now holds all the trump cards in their own stadium.
Given the fact that they have to come back from a deficit away from home, they will inevitably take risks as the game progresses. It could therefore be a good idea to place your bets on the second leg before the clash between the arch-rivals, Barcelona vs Real Madrid.
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
FC Barcelona’s season so far must be viewed in a differentiated manner. On the international level, the Catalans could not even begin to fulfil the high expectations, were knocked out in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League and also lost out in the Europa League intermediate round against Manchester United after a first leg and a second leg. Nationally, however, things are going very well for the Blaugrana. The double is definitely within the realm of possibility.
While the Xavi team is leading La Liga with a whopping twelve points and should therefore not be able to break into the Spanish championship race under normal circumstances, the odds on the blue-reds reaching the final are also pretty good ahead of the Copa del Rey semi-final second leg between Barcelona and Real Madrid. Bet365 is currently offering just 1.20 for the league leaders to progress.
Barcelona virtually unbeatable at home
The pronounced role of the favourites is quite understandable. After all, Barca not only won the first leg away from home 1-0, but have also presented themselves as an absolute home power in La Liga so far this season. None of the 13 matches at the Camp Nou was lost in league play. Eleven victories were offset by two draws. In the calendar year, all six home matches at national level were victorious. Betting on an away win for the Galactics therefore involves a lot of risk.
Especially because the Catalans have by far the best defence in Spain. German keeper Marc Andre ter Stegen has conceded only two of his nine goals at home. In other words: In eleven of 13 home games, Manuel Neuer’s successor in the DFB team kept his clean sheet. In total, there have been 20 (!) clean sheets in 27 La Liga matches.
Barca have also not conceded a goal in their three most recent cup matches, so we are probably not completely wrong in predicting sub-par goals between Barcelona and Real Madrid. Despite the probable absences of Pedri, Dembele, de Jong or Christensen, there is therefore a lot to be said for Lewandowski and Co. reaching the final. By the way: After scoring just two goals in his last ten league games, the Polish star attacker made an impressive comeback with a brace in the 4-0 win at Elche at the weekend.
Predicted Barcelona line-up:
Ter Stegen; Kounde, Araujo, Alonso, Balde; Kessie, Busquets, Gavi; Raphinha, Lewandowski, Fati
Last matches played by Barcelona:
La Liga
02/04/2023 – Elche 0 – 4 FC Barcelona
20/03/2023 – FC Barcelona 2 – 1 Real Madrid
13/03/2023 – Athletic Bilbao 0 – 1 FC Barcelona
05/03/2023 – FC Barcelona 1 – 0 Valencia
Copa del Rey
03/03/2023 – Real Madrid 0 – 1 FC Barcelona
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
For the Royals, Wednesday night’s away game at Camp Nou also has special significance. Because the successful defence of the title has become a distant prospect and, in addition, the path to the Champions League final could prove to be extremely complicated, the Copa del Rey possibly brings with it the “easiest” path to silverware.
However, the capital club threw away a better starting position carelessly in the first leg about a month ago. Despite a clear advantage in chances against Catalans who were short of substitutes, the white ballet lost 0:1 and therefore has its back to the wall before the second leg.
Real Madrid without a resounding success in the Copa for years
The Spanish King’s Cup is by no means the favourite competition of the reigning Champions League winners. In 2014, the Madrilenians were allowed to put on the crown for the last time. In the past eight seasons, they have only reached the final round once. In the previous year, they were eliminated in the quarter-finals, and in 2020/21 Real even made a fool of themselves in the third round against the underclass club CD Alcoyano.
In the current season, the Galacticos have also been on the brink of elimination several times. Against Villarreal, they were already 2-0 down after 45 minutes before they managed to turn the game around, and in the city derby against Atletico, they also needed late goals to avoid elimination. Those who want to bet on more goals after the break in the “Clásico” will find 2.07 as top odds at XTiP.
Real with more problems away from home than at home
After all, the very successful dress rehearsal in the 6-0 victory over Real Valladolid gives hope for a positive result at Camp Nou. At the same time, this performance confirmed once again that Ancelotti’s team is currently stronger at home than away.
In La Liga, they have only managed one win from their four most recent away games. Among others, the royals lost 1:2 in Barcelona or 0:1 in Mallorca in 2023. In eleven of the 14 away games played at league level, a maximum of three goals were scored. It therefore makes sense to combine odds on the double chance 1X with sub-par goals before the “Clásico” Barcelona vs Real Madrid.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois; Vazquez, Militao, Nacho, Alaba; Kroos, Tchouameni, Modric; Valverde, Benzema, Vinicius Jr
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
La Liga
02/04/2023 – Real Madrid 6 – 0 Real Valladolid
20/03/2023 – FC Barcelona 2 – 1 Real Madrid
Champions League Final
16/03/2023 – Real Madrid 1 – 0 Liverpool FC
La Liga
11/03/2023 – Real Madrid 3 – 1 Espanyol
06/03/2023 – Real Betis 0 – 0 Real Madrid
Barcelona – Real Madrid Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
In the 2023 football year alone, Barcelona and Madrid rivals will face each other in a must-win match for the fourth time. In the Super Coppa held in January, Barca prevailed 3-1 in the final, the Catalans won 2-1 before the international break thanks to a last-minute goal from Franck Kessie in the league clash that decided the championship, and the first leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final ended in a 1-0 victory for the Blaugrana. It is therefore all the more unlikely that the Madrilenians will now turn the tables at the Camp Nou, of all places, and claim the victory they need.
Barcelona – Real Madrid tip
The “Clásico” almost goes in a play-off format in the current 2022/23 football season. After four must-win duels between the arch-enemies, Barca lead the series 3-1. On Wednesday evening, however, the Catalans do not even necessarily need a fourth win in a row against the Madrilenians, as a draw would be enough for the Xavi eleven to progress thanks to their 1-0 first-leg success.
That, in turn, makes the task of the visitors from the capital that much more difficult, after all, the Blaugrana have conceded only two measly goals in 13 home La Liga games. In twelve of 14 domestic games in front of their own fans, they have kept a defensive zero. The Catalans have not lost at all against Spanish clubs at the Camp Nou this season. That’s one of the reasons why we’re not betting in the direction of the royals between Barcelona and Real Madrid.
Instead, we are confident that Xavi’s team will put in a relatively commanding performance, will once again be very concentrated defensively and will possibly exploit the available spaces as the game progresses. It is therefore conceivable to bet on late goals from the Blue and Reds or, more generally, to bet on more goals after the break.
But even more interesting between Barcelona and Real Madrid are the betting odds on the double chance 1X in connection with the under 3.5 after regular playing time.
