Will Barca also weaken against Porto?

The reigning champions from Barcelona are currently only number four in the Spanish top flight. The Catalans’ 1-1 draw with Rayo Vallecano at the weekend meant that the gap to arch-rivals Real Madrid has already widened to four points. Before the top games against Girona and Atletico Madrid on the next two matchdays, coach Xavi’s team will have to make sure they seal the deal in the top flight on Tuesday evening.

The Blaugrana also suffered a bitter defeat in the Champions League recently, meaning they are not yet guaranteed a place in the last 16. Nevertheless, the starting position ahead of the last home game of this group stage is very comfortable.

If the home side win against Barcelona and Porto, the Red & Blues will be guaranteed a place in the last 16. Even a draw in the final showdown in two weeks’ time would mean the proverbial “devil take the hindmost” to prevent FCB from advancing to the last 16

However, the supposed favorites should not take the encounter against the Portuguese top team lightly, because in addition to their own recent, very fluctuating performances, the passable condition of the visitors also suggests that the prediction of a home win between Barcelona and Porto is associated with some risks. The thrilling first leg, in which Xavi’s side narrowly won 1-0 thanks to a goal from Ferran Torres following an assist from Ilkay Gündogan, is a good example of this

Barcelona – statistics & current form

In 2020 and 2021, Robert Lewandowski was named FIFA World Player of the Year twice in a row. The Pole, then in the service of FC Bayern, thus followed in the giant footsteps of Messi, CR7 and co. and then took on a new challenge with his move to FC Barcelona. While the Pole led his team to the Spanish championship in the previous season with 33 goals in 46 competitive matches, Lewy’s advanced age now also seems to be causing problems for the fitness enthusiast.

In the current season, the 35-year-old has only scored eight goals in all competitions. Minor ailments have repeatedly thrown the full-blooded striker off track recently. What is particularly worrying, however, is that the seven-time Bundesliga top scorer has scored just two goals in the past two and a half months. Lewandowski has failed to score in well over half of his matches (9 out of 15)

Barca’s (offensive) lethargy is a concern

Whether the superstar’s apparent lack of goals is really solely due to a decline in performance or primarily to FC Barcelona’s lack of purposeful attacking soccer is up to the subjective interpretation of each individual. The fact is that the Catalan club has only scored more than one goal in two of its last seven competitive matches.

In the Champions League in particular, the Blue & Reds have found it surprisingly difficult. After a fitting 5-0 opening win against Royal Antwerp, FCB struggled to a 1-0 away win in Porto, celebrated another narrow 2-1 home win against Donetsk and finally lost 1-0 to the Ukrainian representatives at Hamburg’s Volksparkstadion three weeks ago. Coach Xavi’s team are not really spreading fear and terror at the moment. It is therefore all the more surprising that such low odds are being offered on FCB ahead of the clash between Barcelona and Porto.

Finally, it should not be forgotten that Barca have already failed twice in the Champions League group stage under Xavi, have only won two of their last five competitive matches and are also without a number of key players. Gavi, a key player in midfield, is missing due to a cruciate ligament rupture. German keeper Marc Andre ter Stegen is still suffering from back pain and is likely to be replaced once again by Inaki Pena.

Predicted Barcelona line-up:

Porto – Statistics & current form

If the performances and results so far in this Champions League Group H are anything to go by, FC Porto have nothing to hide ahead of Tuesday evening’s clash at Barcelona’s Olympic Stadium. The Portuguese top team has not only scored one goal more than the group leaders, but has also won the other three encounters by at least a two-goal margin – with the exception of the 1-0 defeat in the first leg. In the aforementioned defeat at the beginning of October, a clear improvement in performance after the break would also have made a point possible.

Since last year’s semi-finalists, who only lost 1-0 to eventual finalists Inter Milan after the first and second legs, have also won seven of their last eight group games in the top flight and don’t have much to lose in Catalonia, we see far more value in the underdogs’ double chance prediction between Barcelona and Porto

Porto hardly concede any goals

The theory that the pressure is naturally all on the home side can be underpinned by the fact that FC Porto – even in the event of a defeat – will definitely have a final game at home to Shakhtar Donetsk in two weeks’ time. However, coach Sergio Concecaio’s team are even aiming to win the group and are drawing the confidence they need from their consistently decent results of late.

The Dragons have won seven of their last eight competitive matches. The blue-and-whites have also won four in a row away from home. The dress rehearsal last Friday was also positive. Even more important than the 4-0 cup win against the lower-ranked opponents, however, was the fact that the coach was able to reduce the workload after the international break and can now rely on a fully rested team in the Olympic Stadium.

It is also pleasing that the 49-year-old head coach, who will celebrate his seventh anniversary in charge this summer, can rely on his defense this season. Porto have the best defense in Portugal with eight goals conceded in eleven games and have never (!) conceded more than one goal in the league and Champions League in 2023/24. This is one of the reasons why we recommend the odds that the presumed favorite in the Barcelona vs. Porto duel will not score a goal in the first half against the strong Portuguese defense in the second leg.

Predicted Porto line-up:

Barcelona – Porto head-to-head comparison / H2H result

There have been nine meetings between FC Barcelona and FC Porto so far. The Catalans lead the direct comparison with six wins and three defeats. FCB have also won all four Champions League matches. Better still, Barca have never lost at home to a Portuguese representative in the top flight (seven wins, two draws). Porto have also only won three of their last 14 international matches in Spain. However, the cards will be reshuffled on Tuesday

Barcelona – Porto betting tip

With FC Barcelona, Porto and Shakhtar Donetsk, three teams still have a chance of progressing in Group H with two matchdays to go. While the Catalans and the Portuguese have nine points each, the Ukrainian flagship team has six. Shakhtar will face bottom-of-the-table Royal Antwerp on Tuesday evening, while Barcelona and Porto face off in the parallel match. The one-sided betting odds suggest a commanding home win.

However, we do not agree with this assessment, as Xavi’s side have not been particularly convincing of late, winning just two of their last five competitive games and scoring no more than one goal in six of their last nine matches. The offensive slump could now also prove to be a problem against the strong Porto defense, as the visitors from Portugal have not conceded more than one goal in a single match in the league or Champions League