Will the Catalans take the lead in the first leg?
While FC Barcelona won the Copa del Rey last week and is also on course for the La Liga title, Inter Milan not only squandered its chance to reach the Coppa Italia final last week, but also possibly the Scudetto with two defeats. If the tip for Barcelona vs. Inter Milan is a home win for the in-form Catalans, the Nerazzurri could also be sidelined in their third major competition.
Basically, the prediction for Barcelona vs. Inter Milan is also clearly in favor of a home win for the Blaugrana. The FCB has hosted the Nerazzurri six times in a Champions League home game so far, and the Lombards have never won in Catalonia (one draw, five defeats). However, Milan have won four of their last five Champions League away games (one defeat), including an impressive 2-1 victory in the quarter-finals at Bayern Munich’s Allianz Arena.
Nevertheless, Hansi Flick’s FC Barcelona are simply extremely strong at the moment. This is also evidenced by the average of 3.1 goals scored per Champions League game under the German coach. Admittedly, it is likely to be much more difficult to achieve such a goal ratio against the defensively strong Nerazzurri. Nevertheless, it is likely to be difficult for the Italians to fight their way into a good starting position.
Barcelona vs. Inter Milan prediction AI
We often agree with our human predictions using Supercomputer BETSiE. In this case, however, we cannot come to a consensus, as the AI sees the greatest value in the underdog bet. The odds of 5.20 offered by Winamax for tip 2 suggest a 19.2 percent probability of an away win for the Nerazzurri. However, the Barcelona vs. Inter Milan AI prediction calculates a 25.8 percent chance of victory for the visitors, which results in a very high positive expected value.
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
FC Barcelona has played its way into the semifinals of the UEFA Champions League with impressive consistency, celebrating nine wins in its last eleven home games on the international stage (one draw, one defeat). This season, the Catalans have remained unbeaten in all six home games (five wins, one draw), scoring an impressive 21 goals. Only in the 1999/2000 season did they score more goals at home in a Champions League season (29).
In direct encounters with Inter Milan, the Blaugrana have the clear upper hand: in six Champions League home games against the Italians, they have recorded five wins and one draw. No other club has been beaten more often at home than Inter and city rivals AC Milan (five defeats each). The Catalans have not been unbeaten at home in the Champions League against any other opponent except Chelsea (seven games). Accordingly, the odds for a Barcelona win against Inter Milan are low, standing at just 1.66 in the ODDSET app.
Barcelona are the big favorites at home
Under Hansi Flick, the Catalans have scored an average of 3.1 goals per Champions League game – only Flick’s Bayern were once more dangerous in front of goal, averaging 3.2 goals. Raphinha has been particularly impressive, contributing to 26 goals in his 24 appearances to date (15 goals, 11 assists). Only Erling Haaland (36) and Luis Suárez (28) were more efficient in their first 25 appearances in the Champions League.
The wing duo of Lamine Yamal and Raphinha were the most effective pair in this season’s Champions League, scoring five goals between them and creating 16 chances for each other. The FCB is not only back in the semi-finals for the first time since 2019, but is also the clear favorite at its home ground, the Estadi Olímpic, underlining its impressive record in 2025. Of 28 competitive games played, the newly crowned Copa del Rey champions have lost only one (23 wins, four draws) – the completely meaningless 1-3 defeat at Borussia Dortmund in the second leg, after winning the first leg 4-0…
Inter Milan – Statistics & current form
Inter Milan have lost their last three competitive games in a row and are on the verge of throwing away everything they have built up. A 3-0 defeat in the Derby della Madonnina marked the end of their Coppa Italia semi-final campaign, while two 1-0 defeats against Bologna and AS Roma cost the Nerazzurri their place at the top of the table. There is still hope for a turnaround in the Champions League, where the Lombards have reached the semi-finals in two of the last three seasons and won four of their last five away games (one defeat). The Biscione are currently on a three-game winning streak away from home and could win four consecutive international away games for the first time in their history.
However, their record against Barcelona is mixed: in their last seven Champions League encounters, the Italians have only celebrated one victory (two draws, four defeats), which came in October 2022 with a 1-0 home win. In Barcelona itself, however, the Italians have failed to win in six attempts in the Champions League (one draw, five defeats), which is why the odds are not in their favor when Barcelona take on Inter Milan, with a first away win in Catalonia looking unlikely.
Inter Milan hoping for Lautaro Martínez
The big hope is Lautaro Martínez. The captain has scored in each of his last five Champions League appearances. With another goal, he would become only the second South American after Edinson Cavani to score in six consecutive Champions League games. Meanwhile, Nicolò Barella is shining in midfield, boasting the best progressive pass rate per 90 minutes (7.1) and the highest progressive pass completion rate among central midfielders (12%) in the competition.
Coach Simone Inzaghi is contesting his 50th Champions League game and is the seventh Italian coach to reach this milestone. With 26 wins in this span, he has already set a new record for Italian coaches. Inter are now aiming to reach the final again via the Blaugrana, as they did when they last won the Henkelpot in 2010.
Barcelona – Inter Milan Head-to-head record
Head to head: 8 – 5 – 3
The two teams have played 16 international competitive matches so far, with FC Barcelona leading the head-to-head record by a clear margin with eight wins. The Blaugrana were unable to win against the Nerazzurri in the group stage of the 2022/23 season (one draw, one defeat). However, the Catalans have never lost to Inter Milan in six Champions League home games (five wins, one draw).
Barcelona – Inter Milan Tip
All in all, our prediction for Barcelona vs. Inter Milan is a home win for the Blaugrana, who will likely face an opponent that does not want to throw away a third competition in a week and a half after setbacks in the Coppa Italia and Serie A. In principle, however, the Nerazzurri must above all remain defensively solid in order not to squander a good starting position in the first leg in Catalonia, as Borussia Dortmund did in the first leg (0-4).
We expect a compact Nerazzurri side, who are capable of a draw after their recent strong performances in Europe, but who are likely to be severely tested by the brilliant Blaugrana. The combined tip on the double chance 1X with under 3.5 goals offers good value.
